Alexander Dragonetti

Donald Trump’s attack on Iran may have exposed the limits of US military power while strengthening Tehran’s leverage through its ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed solution is a grand bargain in which the United States accepts Iran’s de facto role in maintaining commercial passage, while Iran completely dismantles its independently verified nuclear programme in exchange for phased sanctions relief. Although rewarding coercion could undermine international law and encourage similar territorial pressure elsewhere, the arrangement could prevent further escalation, nuclear proliferation and a costly military confrontation. Trump could present the deal as a strategic transaction that delivers his central objective despite the conflict’s initial failure.