Amir Taheri

The 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire is eroding as both sides remain stuck in escalating yet strategically ineffective exchanges. Trump’s confrontational rhetoric and intermittent truces have not forced Tehran to yield, while Iran’s retaliatory strikes show no path out of the conflict. Internal power factions in Iran—from bureaucrats seeking normalcy to hardline IRGC‑aligned networks—are divided, leaving no group positioned to negotiate a settlement. Continued military pressure risks empowering hardliners, while inaction could do the same. A viable strategy requires a new plan that acknowledges internal Iranian dynamics and creates opportunities for constructive change.