Анастасия Зануда

Russian strikes on Odesa and Chornomorsk have effectively halted operations at Ukraine’s key deep-water Black Sea ports, despite the absence of a formal government closure. Maersk suspended services in Chornomorsk after a deadly incident involving the Golden Leo, while Ukraine enters the harvest and new marketing year with major export commitments. Alternative routes through the Danube, railways and roads can handle only about 4 million tonnes of grain, compared with roughly 7 million tonnes a month through major seaports, and are more expensive and vulnerable to low river levels, border protests and Russian attacks. The disruption has already pushed some grain prices down 30–40% and could deprive Ukraine of more than $2 billion in monthly agricultural export revenue, threaten farmers’ working capital and reduce funds available for the war effort. Prolonged delays could also require storage for 10–12 million tonnes of grain, raise import costs and affect global food prices, making port security a potential issue in forthcoming peace negotiations.