Ashley Kirk

More in Common modelling for The Guardian shows that first past the post could give Reform UK 46% of parliamentary seats from 28% of the vote, while proportional systems would produce a more fragmented parliament and reduce Reform’s advantage. Regional party lists, STV and AMS could increase representation for Labour, the Greens, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru, potentially enabling a progressive coalition, while a Reform-Conservative coalition would be the main alternative. The analysis also shows major regional differences, including sharp reductions in projected Reform seats in north-east England and greater Green and Reform representation in London. Any Westminster shift to proportional representation would likely face pressure for a referendum and resistance from voters familiar with the existing system.

Labour has approved renewable-energy projects at roughly twice the rate of the Conservatives’ final two years in office, while planning reforms and NESO’s overhaul of the grid-connection queue have enabled hundreds of wind, solar, hydro and battery projects to secure connections before 2030. However, analysis by the Guardian, Cornwall Insight and LCP Delta indicates that delivery is still too slow: clean electricity may meet only 83% of demand by 2030, below the government’s 95% target, which may instead be reached around 2035. Gas remains important for balancing the system and supplied nearly 27% of electricity last year. Even if the target is missed, renewable capacity is expected to transform the power sector, reduce exposure to volatile gas prices and cut emissions. The target nevertheless remains important for mobilizing large private investments, including SSE’s planned £33bn in grids and domestic energy.

Data from ACLED and the Global Terrorism Index shows that insecurity in Nigeria has worsened after several years of improvement, with attacks spreading across much of the country. The article attributes the crisis to governance vacuums, heavily centralised power, limited resources reaching local authorities and an overstretched military and police force. Extremist groups, bandits and other non-state actors exploit under-governed areas, while Nigeria’s simultaneous insurgencies and secessionist conflict strain its security apparatus. US-Nigerian operations, including the reported killing of Islamic State commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki and the deployment of US military advisers, have so far done little to reverse the rising violence ahead of Nigeria’s general elections.

The 2026 UK elections produced substantial shifts across local government and the devolved nations. In England, Labour lost 1,229 councillors and control of 37 councils, while Reform UK gained 1,372 councillors and control of 14 councils; the Greens also made significant advances, taking control of five councils and winning mayoralties in Hackney and Lewisham. Labour lost control of Birmingham, Lambeth and other councils, although it retained some major authorities. In Wales, Plaid Cymru won 43 of the 96 Senedd seats, ahead of Reform UK with 34 and Labour with nine. In Scotland, the SNP remained the largest party with 58 seats but lost two, while Reform UK gained 16 seats, the Conservatives fell to 12, and Labour won 17. The results point to fragmented politics, declining support for the traditional major parties and stronger performances by Reform UK, the Greens and Plaid Cymru.

Labour suffered its worst local election performance on record in 2026, losing councils and seat share across England while also failing to make significant gains in Scotland. In Wales, its Senedd vote share fell by more than half, leaving it in third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK and ending its control of the Welsh parliament. Reform benefited on the right, the Greens gained on the left, Plaid Cymru surged in Wales and the SNP retained power in Scotland, highlighting the fragmentation of British politics into a more competitive five-party system. Keir Starmer acknowledged the severity of the result and accepted responsibility.

Labour is projected to suffer its worst-ever local election performance on 7 May 2026, potentially losing around 1,900 councillors as Reform UK, the Greens and Liberal Democrats advance. The party faces especially severe setbacks in Wales, where it could fall to third place behind Reform and Plaid Cymru, and in Scotland, where its seat share may drop to a historic low while the SNP could secure a majority. Labour also risks losing long-held councils in London and northern England. The scale of the losses could reignite pressure on Keir Starmer, although uncertainty over the impact of the Iran war and the Peter Mandelson vetting controversy makes his political future difficult to predict.

Earth’s orbit has become increasingly crowded, with roughly 32,000 satellites, rocket stages and fragments currently circling the planet and potentially more than 60,000 active satellites by the end of the decade. The growth of private mega-constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlink has accelerated this congestion, while past collisions have created large quantities of high-speed debris. Jonathan McDowell warns that a chain reaction of satellite collisions could develop over decades and make launches extremely dangerous, although the current risk remains manageable through constant coordination among satellite operators. Removing large defunct satellites through nets, robotic systems or lasers could help reduce the danger.

UK polling has appeared highly volatile because the country is moving toward a fragmented five-party system, even though the broader balance between left-leaning and right-leaning voters has remained relatively stable. Small polling changes now have larger consequences because Labour, the Conservatives, Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats compete in closer races, while first-past-the-post magnifies geographic differences. Reform has consolidated support on the right, while Labour has lost dominance on the left to the Greens and other parties. Higher voter switching and constituency-level uncertainty mean that similar national vote shares can produce dramatically different seat projections, leaving the outcome of the next elections unusually difficult to predict.

Weda Bay in Indonesia has changed from largely intact rainforest and coral reefs into one of the world’s largest nickel-mining regions, with extensive deforestation, polluted waterways and threats to the Hongana Manyawa people and endemic wildlife. Guardian-supported analysis by academic researchers identified more than 3,267 operating mining sites within key biodiversity areas, representing nearly 5% of the global mining footprint. Rising demand for minerals needed for the green-energy transition is driving expansion into biodiverse regions across Indonesia, Brazil, Laos and elsewhere, while mining-related habitat loss and pollution threaten thousands of species. Researchers argue that some ecologically irreplaceable areas should be designated no-go zones for mining.

A US-Israeli campaign against Iran, including attacks on Tehran and the Natanz nuclear facility, rapidly expands into a regional war after Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes across Israel and Gulf states. Hundreds have been reported killed in Iran, including nearly 165 people at a girls’ school in Minab, while Israel has suffered deaths from missile attacks. Hezbollah’s rocket fire brings Lebanon into the conflict, prompting Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion that displace tens of thousands. Attacks and airspace closures in the Gulf and Cyprus disrupt flights, trade and energy markets, while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sends oil prices higher.

The US and Israel launched a broad campaign of airstrikes across Iran, targeting political and security sites, missile facilities and air defenses. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was reportedly killed, while Israel said dozens of senior Iranian commanders had also died. Iran responded with ballistic-missile and drone attacks against Israel and targets across the Gulf, expanding the conflict regionally and disrupting air travel. The fighting caused significant casualties, including at a girls’ school in Minab, while civilians in Iran, Israel and neighboring countries sought shelter amid escalating attacks and protests.

Analysis of UN General Assembly voting records by Focaldata indicates that Donald Trump’s second-term “America First” policies have sharply reduced the number of countries strongly aligned with the United States, from 46 under the comparable Obama and Biden years to seven in 2025. Traditional allies including Canada, South Korea, Japan, Germany and the UK have diverged from Washington, particularly over votes concerning Ukraine, Gaza, the environment, health and migration. China’s bloc of 73 countries has remained broadly intact, while Asia, Africa and South America generally align more closely with Beijing. The analysis suggests that China’s allies now represent greater combined economic power and that the global centre of gravity could move into China’s sphere by the late 2030s.

A Guardian investigation reconstructs Brazil’s deadliest police operation, a 17-hour raid on Rio de Janeiro’s Complexo da Penha on 28 October that left 122 people dead, including five police officers. Although authorities portrayed all 117 non-police fatalities as traffickers and celebrated the operation as a major blow against the Red Command, interviews and records found that at least one victim was not involved in crime, none of the dead appeared on the warrants used to justify the raid, and only 17 warrants were executed. Relatives and investigators allege that civilians and fleeing traffickers may have been unlawfully killed, while police deny executing suspects and maintain they acted in self-defence. The operation disproportionately affected Black residents and people from other Brazilian regions, prompted investigations into police misconduct, and appears to have had little lasting impact on the Red Command, which quickly restored its control over the favela.

A visual investigation reconstructs Rio de Janeiro’s deadliest police operation, in which 122 people were killed during an October 2025 raid targeting the Red Command criminal group. Using body-camera footage, satellite imagery and social-media material, the investigation raises questions about the operation and finds that at least one person killed was not a gang member. Police chiefs and conservative politicians called the raid a historic blow against organized crime, while activists, security experts, victims’ families and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva condemned it as a disastrous and futile massacre.

The Greens have gained roughly four points in average polling since Zack Polanski became leader in September 2025, reaching about 13.5%, though results vary substantially between pollsters. Support has grown particularly among 18- to 24-year-olds and former Labour voters, while new Green supporters place greater emphasis on the economy and NHS than existing supporters. Polanski’s net favourability remains negative, but he is better rated than most national party leaders and is still unknown to many voters. MRP modelling suggests the Greens could win nine parliamentary seats, with potential gains concentrated in progressive urban areas such as Bristol, Manchester and Sheffield. The party’s main challenges are converting volatile polling into votes, developing a nationwide campaign operation and navigating tactical voting ahead of local and general elections.

Greenland is becoming a major geopolitical flashpoint as climate change reduces Arctic sea ice, making new shipping routes more viable and exposing mineral resources. The Northern Sea Route could shorten journeys between Europe and Asia, although ice conditions still create commercial risks. Russia is expanding its Arctic military and maritime infrastructure, while NATO members are reinforcing regional defenses. The United States already operates the Pituffik space base in Greenland, and Donald Trump's consideration of acquiring the island has intensified tensions with Denmark. Greenland's rare-earth reserves, including the Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez deposits, are also attracting Chinese interest, though mining remains constrained by ice, remoteness and difficult conditions.

Wildfires destroyed about 135,000 square kilometres of forest in 2024, more than twice the annual tree-cover loss caused by fires two decades ago. The worst impacts have occurred in boreal and temperate conifer forests, with severe seasons in Russia, Canada, Brazil, Australia and Bolivia. Hotter, drier conditions linked to climate change are intensifying fires, while deforestation, agricultural clearing and drought add to the risk. Burning forests release stored carbon and reduce their capacity to absorb emissions, creating a feedback loop that can accelerate warming. Cutting greenhouse-gas emissions, ending deforestation, restoring degraded land and improving local fire management are identified as necessary responses; Indigenous-led monitoring and rapid intervention in Bolivia’s Charagua Iyambae provided one example of effective protection, though no forest is immune to fire.

Extreme weather linked to climate change is increasingly disrupting agriculture through floods, droughts and erratic rainfall across regions including China, Europe, southern Africa, the United States, the Amazon and Southeast Asia. Crop yields are projected to plateau and decline, with global caloric output potentially falling by about 24% under high-emissions scenarios and maize yields declining by up to 24% by the end of the century. These impacts could raise food prices, worsen hunger and threaten political stability, particularly in poorer countries. Experts and the FAO call for faster emissions cuts, more resilient farming systems, smarter cultivation methods, restoration of degraded land and reductions in food waste.

Thailand and Cambodia’s enduring border conflict traces back to Franco-Siamese treaties and colonial maps that shifted the frontier and left ownership of several Khmer temples ambiguous. The 1907 Annex I map placed Preah Vihear in Cambodia, while Thailand argues that the treaty-defined watershed should determine the boundary. The International Court of Justice awarded the temple to Cambodia in 1962 but did not settle the surrounding territory, leaving Preah Vihear, Ta Moan Thom and Ta Khwai as continuing flashpoints amid wider nationalist rivalry.

Nour AbuShammala recounts six forced displacements across Gaza during two years of war, from her family’s apartment in Gaza City to Khan Younis, al-Mawasi and Nuseirat, before repeatedly returning to a partly destroyed home. The family endured homelessness, shortages of water, electricity, fuel and food, and the destruction of homes and community landmarks. Nour’s brother Muhammad was severely injured in a June 2025 Israeli airstrike that killed 24 Palestinians, while the Israeli military said it was targeting Hamas operatives and that the strike was under review. After a ceasefire, the family returned to Gaza City, where they began rebuilding amid scarce resources, fresh damage and continuing fear. Nour remains determined to resume her international-law career and study in Jordan, while the Guardian documents the family’s movements and verifies destruction through satellite imagery, video and other sources.

GCSE history in England gives limited attention to Black British history and the British Empire: Guardian analysis found that up to 11% of students studied modules referencing Black contributions to Britain, while only about 9% studied modules making significant reference to the empire. The 2014 curriculum reforms removed explicit emphasis on racial and ethnic diversity, and the government has rejected calls from the Black Curriculum to make Black history mandatory. Teachers and young activists argue that the omission distorts Britain’s past, reinforces victim-only narratives, and contributes to feelings of exclusion, while schools face time, funding and teacher-training constraints. Exam boards and educators say the curriculum can be broadened through modules on migration, empire and precolonial societies.