Ben Rich

The developing El Niño over the Pacific could become the strongest in recent records, with sea-surface temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above average and some projections reaching 4°C. The Met Office says 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record. In Brazil, the phenomenon is expected to bring heavier rain to the South but drier conditions in the North and Northeast, increasing risks of floods, droughts and wildfires. Worldwide impacts may include below-average monsoon rainfall in South Asia, altered hurricane activity, drought and fires in Australia, and flooding in Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States. The FAO has warned that the event could threaten tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries with acute food insecurity.

The Met Office warns that the developing El Niño could become the strongest in living memory, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above average and possibly reaching even higher levels. The event is already associated with suppressed South Asian monsoon rainfall and could increase drought, wildfire, flooding and crop-failure risks worldwide. In the UK, it may bring a wetter and stormier autumn and early winter, while also raising the chance of colder late-winter conditions. Although there is no clear evidence that climate change makes El Niño events more frequent or intense, its impacts are expected to be amplified by a warmer climate. The resulting boost to global temperatures makes 2027 very likely to surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.

High pressure is expected to bring drier, sunnier weather across much of the UK over the weekend after heavy showers and localised flash flooding. Friday will remain cool, with temperatures falling as low as 3–4°C in parts of Scotland and northern England, while Sunday highs could reach 19–25°C in England and Wales. Despite recent rainfall, drought conditions remain severe: more than two-thirds of England and all of Wales are affected, prompting the National Drought Group to meet weekly. Sustained rainfall over several months will be needed to replenish reservoirs, rivers and groundwater, while further rain and potentially hot spells are forecast later.

Hurricane Lala brought flash floods, mudslides, powerful winds and up to 32 inches of rain to Hawaii after passing close to the Big Island without making landfall. More than 100 properties were swept from their foundations, one person died in a car accident, about 219,000 electricity customers lost power and 190 flights were postponed. The storm weakened from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical storm, but warnings remained in effect across the major islands as officials continued to caution about flooding and dangerous conditions.

Friday is expected to be the final sweltering day of the UK's widespread heatwave for most areas, with temperatures reaching 34C in south-east England. Kew Gardens recorded 38.1C on Thursday, the UK's hottest day of 2026 and the fifth hottest on record. Cooler conditions will spread from northern and western areas before reaching the entire country over the weekend, although southern England is likely to remain dry. Rain-bearing weather fronts may bring rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday and showers farther south later, but some drought-affected areas could continue to miss significant rainfall.

July 2026 was the driest July on record for England and Wales, with rainfall totals of 6.5mm and 9.3mm respectively. The UK also experienced its second-warmest and sunniest July on record, while Wales had its warmest July ever. A brief heat spike is expected to bring temperatures up to 34C in parts of England, prompting amber and yellow health alerts, before thunderstorms and heavy rain affect Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cooler Atlantic air will arrive later in the week, but southern England is expected to remain unusually dry, with drought conditions likely to persist through a predominantly warm and dry August.

Forecasts indicate the UK's weather may become more changeable later in the summer, with increased rain chances yet temperatures likely to stay above average. High pressure from the Azores and mixed model signals create uncertainty, though further heatwaves remain possible into August. Record‑breaking heat this year reflects persistent high pressure, dry ground, elevated sea‑surface temperatures and the influence of human‑driven climate change, which is making extreme heat more common.