Ben Walker

The Green Party’s recent momentum appears to have stalled after it won only 12 per cent of the vote in the Greater Manchester by-election, far behind Labour’s 47 per cent. Zack Polanski’s favourability remains unchanged at about one-fifth of voters, while negative views have risen to 40 per cent, particularly among voters aged 35 and over. The results suggest that the Greens may have reached the limits of their current appeal, with a realistic prospect of winning only a few dozen parliamentary seats rather than forming a government.

Kemi Badenoch’s favourability has risen sharply since Rachel Reeves’s 2025 Budget, reaching 31 per cent and placing her well ahead of the Conservative Party’s roughly 19 per cent polling share. The improvement has helped prevent the party from sinking further, but the Conservatives remain third in the polls. Nigel Farage and Reform UK continue to dominate the right, leaving Badenoch with only a slim path to the premiership despite her stronger personal ratings.

Andy Burnham has enjoyed a modest improvement in Labour’s polling position since becoming prime minister, but his 28 per cent favourability rating remains historically weak and many voters are undecided or negative toward him. His advantage over Keir Starmer is especially pronounced outside London, largely because Starmer is more widely disliked. Labour has narrowed or erased Reform’s polling lead in recent surveys, although the overall improvement is small. Burnham’s ability to sustain the bounce will depend on how he addresses the cost of living, immigration and healthcare in the coming weeks.

Polling commissioned by the think tank Looking for Growth suggests that only one in five 2024 Labour voters has no concern about Ed Miliband becoming chancellor. More than a third worry that he would be too committed to net zero or would fail to reduce energy bills, while others fear higher borrowing or taxes. Voters prefer prioritising lower household and business energy costs over emissions reductions by 79 per cent to 21 per cent, including substantial majorities among Labour voters who now support the Greens. The findings indicate that Andy Burnham would have public latitude to redirect Labour policy toward immediate cost-of-living relief as he takes over a government viewed as disconnected from voters' material concerns.

Scandals involving undisclosed gifts to Nigel Farage may trigger a parliamentary investigation but are unlikely to weaken his strong support in Clacton or significantly damage Reform UK’s vote. Farage’s appeal rests less on perceived honesty and more on his longstanding connection with a specific voter segment, whose views have remained stable for more than a decade. The scandals are more likely to mobilise progressive voters than erode Reform’s base, leaving the key question how many opponents will turn out to challenge him.