Cyril Widdershoven

Libya and Egypt are reviving plans for an approximately 800-kilometer crude-oil pipeline from Tobruk to Alexandria, potentially carrying 150,000–250,000 barrels per day initially and possibly expanding later. Egypt would gain a Mediterranean supply route that avoids the Hormuz Strait, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez Canal, strengthening refinery utilization and energy security, while Libya would obtain an alternative export corridor as production rises. Estimated costs range from $1.3 billion to more than $2 billion, with a final investment decision potentially in 2027 and first oil more realistically arriving around 2030. The main obstacles are financing, security, cost escalation, and Libya’s political fragmentation between eastern and western authorities, which could make the pipeline both a strategic asset and a target for coercion.

The attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq processing complex may not have caused a confirmed, prolonged loss of production, but it exposes the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s wider export system. Damage or pressure involving Abqaiq, the East-West Pipeline, Yanbu, Jizan and regional shipping routes could erode the redundancy that has made Saudi exports a global backstop. The article argues that traders are focused too narrowly on immediately lost barrels and may be overlooking delayed effects on processing, cargo nominations, tanker schedules, insurance costs and crude quality. Continued attacks and official silence about the damage could raise the geopolitical risk premium even if Saudi production remains largely intact.