د. سالم الكتبي

Iran’s regional threat cannot be permanently removed by weakening its nuclear, missile, or proxy capabilities or by replacing the ruling regime alone, because the country’s population, resources, scientific base, geography, and centralized institutions allow it to rebuild. The article argues that regime change without restructuring how power and resources are managed could produce a nationalist version of the same ambitions, while state collapse could trigger civil war, foreign intervention, and disruption to energy and trade routes. A more durable solution would emerge from within Iran through broad decentralization, federalism, or potentially confederal arrangements agreed through national consent and constitutional reform. Such reforms could limit central control over resources and military decisions, but would not automatically make Iran peaceful. The proposed strategy combines internal institutional reform with limits on offensive capabilities, regional deterrence, and diplomacy that links integration to behavioral change.

The killing of Ayatollah Khamenei is framed as the end of an era in which Iran relied on the perceived invulnerability of its leadership. The funeral becomes a political stage used by Tehran to reshape its narrative through symbolic messaging to regional delegations. Gulf states reassess their security strategies, shifting from rigid blocs to flexible partnerships centered on deterrence, intelligence and regional stability. The evolution of military capabilities and changing geopolitical dynamics make pressure on Iran’s strategic infrastructure more viable, reshaping deterrence calculus. The Gulf moves toward a model balancing effective deterrence, flexible alliances and strategic autonomy, marking a transition to a new regional security phase.