Frank Gardner

Saudi Arabia has largely sought to avoid being drawn into the five-month war between the United States, Israel and Iran, but repeated attacks from Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen are forcing Riyadh to respond. Joint Saudi-US strikes against Iraqi paramilitary forces mark a shift toward deterrence, while further escalation could threaten critical infrastructure, oil exports and the investment goals of Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030. Attacks on Abqaiq, Saudi airports and shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have exposed the kingdom’s vulnerabilities. Riyadh must now choose between continued retaliation and de-escalation efforts, including possible concessions to adversaries.

Saudi Arabia is struggling to avoid being drawn into the expanding US-Iran conflict after attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen. Riyadh has joined the United States in airstrikes against Hashd al-Shaabi forces, while weighing continued retaliation against efforts to buy off or negotiate with adversaries. The conflict threatens Saudi oil infrastructure, shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, and the foreign investment and economic diversification goals of Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia is trying to avoid being drawn into the expanding US-Iran conflict, but attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen are increasing pressure on the kingdom. Riyadh has joined the US in strikes against Iraqi paramilitary forces, while weighing continued retaliation against de-escalation efforts or renewed financial arrangements with adversaries. The conflict threatens Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 investment agenda, critical infrastructure and oil exports, particularly after attacks on Abqaiq, Khurais, airports and Red Sea shipping. Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb could cause wider regional and global economic damage.

Saudi Arabia is trying to avoid being drawn into the widening US-Iran conflict, but repeated attacks from Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen are forcing it to respond. Riyadh and Washington have jointly struck Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces after alleged drone attacks, while Saudi actions against Sanaa airport prompted Houthi retaliation against Saudi airports and Red Sea shipping. The conflict threatens Saudi oil exports, critical infrastructure and foreign investment goals under Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030. Riyadh must now choose between continued retaliatory strikes to deter attacks and de-escalation efforts, potentially including payments to adversaries, while the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El Mandeb remain vulnerable chokepoints.

Houthi attacks on shipping near Yemen’s Bab El Mandeb Strait threaten to disrupt a major Europe–Asia maritime route, compounding the effects of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz on energy, fertiliser and global supply chains. The attacks follow renewed US-Iran hostilities and the apparent collapse of a Saudi-Houthi ceasefire. The Houthis remain entrenched in Yemen despite Saudi-led military action and have previously triggered major shipping diversions and Western naval intervention. At the same time, a US-Saudi agreement to develop civilian nuclear power is raising concerns about a future regional arms race. Without a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, the combined crises could produce prolonged instability and greater economic damage across the Middle East and beyond.

Houthi attacks on shipping near Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait threaten to repeat the major trade diversions and cost increases caused by their earlier Red Sea campaign. The disruption compounds the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid continuing US-Iran hostilities, putting pressure on global energy, fertiliser and other supply chains. Saudi Arabia has used its East-West Pipeline to reroute oil exports, but Houthi threats may undermine that alternative. The Houthis remain entrenched in Yemen despite Saudi military intervention, while US airstrikes have failed to end Iran’s control of Hormuz. A new US-Saudi agreement on civilian nuclear power has also raised concerns about a future regional arms race. Without a lasting US-Iran deal, the combined crises could produce a prolonged period of instability across the Middle East.

Mark Rutte expresses confidence in NATO’s unity despite Donald Trump’s divisive remarks at the Ankara summit, stressing that the US president remains committed to the alliance. He highlights NATO’s strategic importance for US operations and collective defence, particularly against Russian threats near the Arctic. The summit focuses on accelerating European defence spending and industrial capacity, with significant increases reported since 2025. Rutte insists NATO is prepared to respond to any future Russian aggression, including potential threats to member states such as Estonia.

Mark Rutte asserts that Nato remains strong despite divisive remarks by Donald Trump at the Ankara summit, reiterating his conviction that the US president is committed to the alliance. He highlights Europe’s critical role in enabling US military operations and the strategic importance of Nordic states near Russia. Leaders focused on accelerating defence spending and industrial capacity to counter Russia’s missile threat while maintaining support for Ukraine. Rutte expresses confidence that Nato would respond effectively to any future Russian aggression, stressing the alliance’s unified defensive posture.

NATO leaders meeting in Ankara face tensions as Donald Trump’s criticism of the alliance overshadows efforts to strengthen Europe’s defence capabilities. Trump’s remarks on Greenland and allies’ failure to support his earlier conflict with Iran unsettle delegates, while the UK arrives with a defence plan viewed as underfunded. NATO announces major procurement programmes, including new transport aircraft and replacements for AWACS, as discussions intensify around developing joint missile and air‑defence systems. Volodymyr Zelensky urges rapid deployment of anti‑ballistic defences amid escalating Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, with concerns that Russia could rearm quickly once the war ends.

Donald Trump’s presence at the NATO summit in Ankara has disrupted efforts to project unity as he criticizes allies over past conflicts, repeats provocative remarks about Greenland, and faults European partners for insufficient support. Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave Trump an unusually warm welcome, underscoring their personal ties. NATO members are focused on accelerating Europe’s rearmament, announcing major defense projects including new transport aircraft built by Airbus and Sweden’s GlobeEye early-warning planes. Volodymyr Zelensky urges rapid development of European air‑defence systems as Russian missile strikes continue to hit civilian areas. With the US reducing its security commitments, NATO faces growing urgency to strengthen air defenses amid fears of future Russian rearmament.

The UK's defence investment plan allocates £298bn over four years, including £15bn in new funding, falling short of defence chiefs’ reported £28bn requirement. Spending will prioritize a shift toward uncrewed and autonomous systems, with major allocations for the nuclear deterrent, munitions replenishment after support to Ukraine, next‑generation combat aircraft, air and missile defence, and protection of undersea cables amid Russian threats. Army size will grow modestly while its lethality is expected to increase through drone integration, and several programs such as Type 83 destroyers and Storm Shadow missiles are being cut or replaced as the UK restructures its forces to meet modern threats.

The UK’s Defence Investment Plan outlines £298bn in spending over four years, including £15bn in additional funds, though still short of what defence chiefs sought. The plan shifts emphasis from large, expensive platforms to cheaper autonomous systems, reflecting lessons from recent conflicts. Major allocations include £63bn for the nuclear deterrent, £11bn to replenish equipment sent to Ukraine, £8bn for next-generation combat aircraft, and funding for air defence and undersea cable protection. The Army aims to increase lethality through integrated drone systems, while several programmes, including destroyer replacements and the Storm Shadow missile, will be cut or restructured.

Britain’s updated Defence Investment Plan replaces planned Type 83 destroyers with cheaper Common Combat Vessels designed to control uncrewed naval systems. The shift follows lessons from Ukraine’s drone‑driven successes and Iran’s use of low‑cost autonomous systems, reflecting a broader move toward hybridised warfare. The Royal Marines will receive significant investment in fast insertion craft and strike drones. The changes sparked political resignations over claims of underfunding, while experts are divided on whether the shift represents strategic adaptation or cost‑cutting, noting both the benefits and limitations of drone‑centric naval capability.

The UK plans to replace its proposed Type 83 destroyers with cheaper Common Combat Vessels to serve as control hubs for large naval drones, as part of an updated Defence Investment Plan shaped by lessons from Ukraine and Iran. Budget pressures and ministerial resignations have intensified debate over whether the changes represent necessary modernization or cost‑cutting. Proponents argue that hybrid fleets combining crewed ships and autonomous systems can adapt more rapidly to evolving threats, while critics warn that drones cannot fully replace traditional capabilities and may ultimately cost as much as cancelled warships.