Hala Saghbini

Global growth holds at 3 percent despite the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the Middle East and North Africa face a sharp 0.5 percent contraction as disrupted shipping and energy flows reshape regional economies. Saudi Arabia proves relatively resilient thanks to alternative logistics routes, with growth projected to accelerate to 5.5 percent in 2027, while Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar experience steep declines before a strong rebound. Global impacts include higher inflation, divergent performance among major economies and Europe’s slowdown under energy‑price pressure. The IMF warns that renewed conflict and depleted oil reserves could destabilize global markets and trade flows.