Isabel Hardman

Louise Casey’s observation that she could be classified as disabled under the Government’s survey methodology highlights the gap between broad definitions of disability and eligibility for Personal Independence Payment (PIP). With 16.8 million people classified as disabled in 2023–24 and PIP under review, major changes may be necessary. The column argues that reform should address not only benefit criteria but also inadequate NHS mental-health treatment, noting that many benefit recipients are waiting for care and rely on treatment to work. It warns that focusing narrowly on eligibility risks failing people with mental-health conditions, particularly young people whose difficulties were worsened by the pandemic and insufficient support services.

Andy Burnham's early policy announcements aim to establish a cost-of-living government, including protecting state-pension-only recipients from income tax, reducing energy costs, addressing rough sleeping and reforming social care. However, the funding for these commitments remains unclear, despite Burnham retaining the fiscal rules that constrained Rachel Reeves. The article argues that avoiding a confrontation with pensioners may prove politically expedient in the short term, but tax rises and fiscal drag are likely to burden working people and other taxpayers, leaving Burnham vulnerable to broader public resentment.

Shabana Mahmood is being considered as Andy Burnham’s chancellor, a role that would place her at the centre of the next Labour government’s challenge to reduce the rising welfare bill. Her toughness, communication skills and ability to withstand criticism are presented as assets, especially after Rachel Reeves lost support for poorly designed benefit cuts. However, Mahmood may prove difficult for Burnham and Louise Haigh to control, and her appointment could create tensions over economic direction. Burnham must first clarify his own fiscal philosophy rather than allowing the Treasury to dictate short-term savings, while learning from the damaging power struggles between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Andy Burnham faces pressure to explain how he would reduce Britain’s projected £400bn welfare bill while funding higher defence spending. The column argues that preventative measures to help people return to work will not deliver immediate savings, meaning Burnham would also have to make politically difficult changes to current sickness and disability entitlements. Past attempts by the Conservatives, New Labour and Iain Duncan Smith to reform welfare show how easily such policies can provoke opposition and lose their intended savings. Burnham will need to persuade Labour MPs that his plans are genuine reform rather than cuts presented in softer language, and should justify them on the grounds of improving people’s prospects as well as supporting defence.

Andy Burnham’s wife, Marie-France van Heel, is expected to remain private during his renewed Labour leadership ambitions, partly because of past media scrutiny of her business interests. The article argues that if Burnham reaches Downing Street, her independence, marketing expertise and distance from political power could make her an important behind-the-scenes counsellor. Unlike spouses who have embraced public-facing roles, van Heel is portrayed as reluctant to become part of her husband’s political image, though the pressures of life alongside a prime minister may eventually force her into greater public visibility.

John Healey’s resignation as defence secretary is presented as a severe blow to Keir Starmer’s authority and prospects for a lasting legacy. His resignation letter accused Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves of failing to fund a Defence Investment Plan capable of addressing rising threats, potentially reducing military readiness and making the country less safe. The intervention is portrayed as especially damaging because Healey was an early, loyal and understated Starmer supporter. It may strengthen Andy Burnham’s position as a leadership challenger, encourage ministers and backbenchers to plan for a post-Starmer Labour Party, and force future leaders and chancellors to make defence spending a central priority.

Leaked messages involving Pat McFadden, Peter Mandelson and other ministers expose serious private frustration within the Starmer government, including uncertainty over who is responsible for developing policy. However, the messages offer more political ammunition for the Conservatives than a decisive explanation of Mandelson’s appointment or his influence over government. The disclosures may also end the brief period in which WhatsApp archives provided insight into how governments operate, as ministers increasingly turn to disappearing messages and avoid candid written discussions.

Research from University College London found that nearly a third of private-school bursaries and scholarships go to families in the highest-income bracket, while only 17% reach the lowest three income deciles. The column argues that combining scholarships with means-tested bursaries obscures the purpose of needs-blind admissions, which aim to broaden access and improve social mixing. However, VAT on school fees, higher national insurance costs and the removal of business-rates relief are squeezing private schools, contributing to a decline in bursary places. These pressures may make private schools more socially exclusive and weaken their claim to serve a charitable public purpose, even as continued demand for private education highlights shortcomings in the state sector.

Wes Streeting’s proposal to align capital gains tax with income tax, potentially raising £12 billion, is presented as an attempt to appeal to Labour’s left-wing membership and prepare for a future leadership contest. The move reflects Andy Burnham’s growing influence over Labour and the government’s shift toward anti-market policies, while Keir Starmer’s weakness creates further pressure for repositioning. Streeting risks losing his reputation as a centrist without having a realistic path to the leadership, leaving Labour MPs uncertain about who can anchor the party in the centre.

Britain’s rapid turnover of political leaders reflects a failure to confront long-term crises in housing, social care, the NHS, welfare and public finances. The next prime minister will have three years to pursue serious reforms, but must accept the trade-offs involved and resist short-term pressures from voters, polls and social media. Labour is criticized for delaying social care reform, offering inadequate housing and health policies, and mishandling welfare reform. Margaret Thatcher is presented as an example of a leader willing to explain difficult choices and withstand opposition.

Prunella Briance’s traumatic stillbirth led her to campaign against the over-medicalization of childbirth and promote “natural birth,” drawing on the theories of Grantly Dick-Read. The column argues that this movement unintentionally shifted responsibility for labour pain onto women and helped entrench NHS targets favoring vaginal delivery and low caesarean rates. It links that ideology to maternity scandals at Shrewsbury and Telford and Morecambe Bay, where an emphasis on normal birth was associated with serious failures and deaths. The piece also highlights the dismissal of women’s pain, particularly among non-white mothers, and the resulting prevalence of birth trauma and PTSD.

The column argues that Donald Trump’s erratic behaviour may reflect genuine unpredictability rather than a deliberate version of the geopolitical “madman theory.” It cites public and private concerns from doctors, European leaders and officials in the UK Government, while noting denials from Robert Fico and the White House. The uncertainty is particularly troubling for the transatlantic nuclear community and complicates Keir Starmer’s strategy of flattering and accommodating Trump. Starmer has begun taking a tougher public line, but the column warns that confronting a genuinely unpredictable US president could itself provoke further instability.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s sale of Sunninghill Park, a wedding gift from Queen Elizabeth II, is presented as evidence of his entitlement and the lack of consequences he enjoyed for years. The column argues that public outrage over recent revelations is less about new information than about collective guilt for failing to act earlier. Comparisons with the Post Office Horizon scandal and reactions to Elon Musk’s posts on grooming gangs illustrate how institutions and political leaders often move from prolonged indifference to sudden overreaction once a scandal becomes impossible to ignore.

Keir Starmer reportedly hopes to use the timing of the King’s Speech after expected Labour losses in elections in Scotland, Wales and English councils to deter a leadership challenge. The strategy is portrayed as procedural manoeuvring rather than evidence of an ambitious legislative agenda. Labour MPs and ministers are described as frustrated by Starmer’s loss of authority and credibility, while his large parliamentary majority is seen as unreliable on contentious measures. Although party rules may delay a challenge, the column argues that no parliamentary-calendar tactic can protect Starmer from voters and that his premiership may already be effectively beyond rescue.

Wes Streeting’s improved offer to resident doctors, including priority for UK-trained medics and measures addressing exam fees and training places, may avert planned strikes but has been criticised by the BMA for failing to improve pay. The dispute is politically advantageous for Streeting because the BMA lacks the close ties to Labour that other unions have, while public support for striking doctors has weakened. By refusing further concessions, Streeting can present himself as decisive and contrast himself with Keir Starmer’s policy reversals, strengthening his prospects as a potential successor, although the conflict is likely to continue causing political and professional damage.

Isabel Hardman reflects on her past mental-health breakdown and argues that young people should learn that mental illness can be managed rather than treated as a permanent condition. She supports examining possible overdiagnosis of ordinary distress, but says the larger failure is inadequate access to professional care, including long waits for child and adolescent services. The pandemic further weakened links between health and work, while public discussion expanded without sufficient practical support. Hardman concludes that government policy needs to deliver treatment and action, not merely encourage people to talk about mental health.

The state pension triple lock is portrayed as fiscally unsustainable despite Chancellor Rachel Reeves pledging to protect it until 2029. Its estimated £15.5 billion annual cost, combined with Labour's recent political difficulties with older voters, makes the government reluctant to abolish it. However, policies such as a cap on pension salary-sacrifice contributions have exposed the same sustainability concerns, while Labour MPs and internal groups are increasingly acknowledging that the triple lock cannot continue indefinitely. The policy is therefore likely to be deferred until a future government bears the political cost of reform.

The COVID-19 Inquiry’s findings on delayed pandemic action, Boris Johnson’s leadership failures and the chaotic, sexist culture in Downing Street should end any realistic prospect of his political comeback. His position is further weakened by the post-Brexit rise in immigration, dubbed the “Boriswave,” which undermines his promise that Brexit would reduce migration. Although Johnson is likely to retain lucrative speaking opportunities and public attention, the inquiry and immigration record may finally separate his celebrity from his prospects as a future politician.

Labour MPs are increasingly disillusioned with Keir Starmer, who is portrayed as having won power without a sufficiently clear governing vision or the ability to wield power effectively. The party's wider difficulties are presented as deeper than Starmer's leadership: Labour has not resolved the tension between its internationalist instincts and voters' demands for tighter immigration controls, or between opposition-era resistance to benefit cuts and the need for welfare reform. Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood may offer stronger worldviews as potential successors, but would face the same party unwilling to accept that voters may be right. The turmoil is framed as part of a broader crisis affecting both major UK parties.

David Lammy’s poor performance while deputising for Keir Starmer exposed both his own weaknesses and the Prime Minister’s decision to appoint him Deputy Prime Minister as a party-management compromise. Lammy lost his temper during Commons questioning over the accidental release of another prisoner and appeared unable to command the Justice brief, which is already struggling with overcrowded prisons, weak rehabilitation and court delays. Starmer is blamed for leaving an unsuitable deputy in charge during foreign travel and for failing to address the government’s wider justice-system crisis.

The Conservatives are calling Rachel Reeves’s position untenable after she failed to secure a selective licence for renting out her Southwark home and initially omitted emails relevant to the matter. Although the episode damages Labour’s credibility on housing standards, the column argues that demanding Reeves’s resignation is an overblown and poorly chosen attack. The more politically consequential issue is Reeves’s expected breach of Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance, which could affect voters directly. That issue also implicates Keir Starmer, who is responsible for the government’s promises and ministerial choices.

Jess Phillips is facing criticism from grooming-gang survivors over claims that she misled MPs about whether a planned inquiry could expand beyond grooming gangs to broader group-based child sexual exploitation. The article argues that Phillips, despite her campaigning experience, has struggled to operate effectively as a Home Office minister, a problem compounded by the department’s alleged dysfunction and bureaucratic resistance. Baroness Louise Casey is presented as a rare figure able to force change through Whitehall. The inquiry’s eventual chair will need not only to establish how grooming gangs operated and institutions failed victims, but also to produce reforms that can be implemented and prevent further abuse.

Successive UK governments, including Keir Starmer’s Labour administration and previous Conservative governments, have prioritized the economic benefits of relations with China while avoiding frank discussion of Chinese espionage and security threats. The collapse of the China spying case and Matthew Collins’s witness statements expose the costs of this ambiguity. A clearer policy would acknowledge that trade and economic security are intertwined with the need to confront hostile Chinese activity, rather than leaving difficult decisions to officials or concealing uncomfortable information from the public.

Donald Trump’s failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize may increase his incentive to complete peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas and pursue other foreign-policy deals. His Gaza plan requires Hamas to disarm and surrender any role in governing the territory, conditions the author argues are difficult to enforce and could prompt further Israeli military action. The piece contends that Trump’s unconventional willingness to engage directly with leaders such as Benjamin Netanyahu may achieve more than traditional diplomatic methods, while warning that his approach remains deeply flawed. Other politicians, the author argues, should learn from his negotiating tactics rather than simply dismissing him as an unsuitable statesman.

The column argues that antisemitism has become normalized in Britain, citing the attack on the Heaton Park synagogue, intimidation of Jewish students and worshippers, workplace incidents, and anti-Zionist rhetoric at Gaza-related protests. It says Labour politicians, including Keir Starmer, have been too quiet about threats to British Jews while criticizing Israel, and urges Starmer to distinguish opposition to the Israeli government from hostility toward Jews or Israel’s existence. The piece credits Starmer with addressing antisemitism within Labour but argues that he must now take a more active role in shaping political debate rather than criticizing its tone from the sidelines.

Keir Starmer's proposal for digital IDs is presented as an opportunistic attempt to counter Reform UK and demonstrate that Labour is responding to anger over illegal immigration. Although polling suggests the policy is popular, including among Reform voters, and ministers argue that it would make interactions with public services more convenient, the proposal may not win back voters who distrust political institutions. Opponents including Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch will argue that IDs will not stop small-boat crossings, while Starmer's lack of preparation and sudden policy reversal could reinforce perceptions that he acts for electoral advantage rather than because he believes the policy will work. Any practical evidence of its impact is unlikely to emerge before political circumstances change again.

Keir Starmer’s planned recognition of Palestinian statehood is portrayed as a short-term political-management measure intended to balance pressure from Labour activists, parliamentary colleagues, France and the United States, rather than as a strategy capable of changing the war in Gaza. The policy may do little to influence Benjamin Netanyahu, risks reducing Britain’s diplomatic leverage and is unlikely to satisfy Labour supporters seeking tougher measures such as expanded sanctions or BDS. Related government actions, including restricting Israeli military participation at a defence college and proscribing Palestine Action, are presented as partial responses that will generate further pressure because they lack a coherent long-term plan.

Peter Mandelson’s dismissal as UK ambassador to Washington is presented as a major political and diplomatic setback for Keir Starmer. The decision followed pressure over Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and Starmer’s unconvincing defense of him in Parliament. Although removing Mandelson may protect the Government from an immediate controversy, it risks offending Donald Trump, who valued the ambassador, and weakening the carefully built US-UK relationship ahead of Trump’s state visit. Starmer must now explain what he knew about Mandelson’s communications with Epstein while preserving cooperation with an unusually sensitive US president.

Keir Starmer’s unusually emphatic defence of Angela Rayner may reflect both personal sympathy over the pressures involving her disabled son and political calculation. A weakened Rayner could pose less of a threat to Starmer from the backbenches, but her damage would also deprive Labour of an effective communicator with voters considering Reform UK. The stamp duty controversy risks reinforcing perceptions that the political class operates by different rules, worsening Labour’s already serious credibility and electoral problems.

Labour’s inability to demonstrate control over the migrant crisis is giving Nigel Farage and Reform UK a major political advantage. Ministers have struggled to rebut Reform’s asylum and deportation proposals, while a migration cooperation deal with France may collapse amid political instability there. The Conservatives’ previous failures have also weakened moderate mainstream responses, allowing Reform to portray them as ineffective tinkering. As public confidence in Labour and Conservative immigration promises declines, even senior former Labour home secretaries are discussing once-unthinkable options such as disengagement from the European Convention on Human Rights. Unless Labour develops clearer and more decisive policies, it risks following Farage’s agenda rather than setting its own.

Robert Jenrick’s weight loss, including his use of weight-loss jabs, is presented as the latest example of politicians using physical transformation to signal leadership ambitions. The column contrasts Britain’s subdued approach to political fitness with the highly performative US fitness culture, while arguing that MPs face sedentary, exhausting and unhealthy conditions that make maintaining their health difficult. Historical examples involving Steve Baker, George Osborne, Ed Davey and Theresa May illustrate how politicians’ bodies have been linked to perceptions of suitability for party leadership.

Keir Starmer is trying to support Ukraine and maintain close ties with Donald Trump while diverging from the US on Israel, Palestinian statehood and China. His international balancing act has given him a role as a calm intermediary, but it is increasingly difficult to sustain and may be distracting him from domestic challenges, including growing Labour backbench unrest over welfare reforms. His MPs are unlikely to reward his foreign-policy efforts if they believe he is mishandling politics at home.

Keir Starmer’s proposal linking recognition of a Palestinian state to future conditions in Gaza has angered former hostages’ families, pro-Palestinian campaigners and legal experts for different reasons. The column argues that the plan exemplifies a wider British political reflex to announce that “something must be done” without properly examining whether the chosen policy will work or create harmful unintended consequences. Dangerous-dog legislation, the Leveson Inquiry and assisted-dying legislation are cited as comparable examples. Starmer is therefore criticised for repeating the rushed, emotionally driven policymaking flaw he once identified in others.