Jeremy Bowen

A proposed agreement linking Hamas’s surrender of weapons to an Israeli withdrawal from most of Gaza could offer a rare opening for diplomacy, but deep mistrust, devastation, competing political pressures and the absence of a clear mechanism for disarmament make it highly fragile. Hamas is weakened but still retains influence, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic and legal pressures and President Donald Trump wants a Gaza success before US elections. Continuing violence and settlement expansion in the West Bank, along with Israeli opposition to Palestinian statehood, could derail the process. A phased agreement with sustained US, Egyptian and Turkish diplomacy and a credible route to Palestinian self-determination is presented as essential to preventing renewed conflict.

A proposed bargain would see Hamas surrender its weapons in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from much of Gaza, offering a rare possibility of diplomatic progress despite deep mistrust, devastation and political obstacles. Hamas is weakened and under pressure, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic, legal and US political pressures that may discourage compromise. The plan would require gradual implementation, sustained US engagement and protection from renewed violence, particularly in the West Bank. Without a credible path to Palestinian self-determination, the agreement is unlikely to end the conflict and could instead strengthen forces on both sides that reject a negotiated solution.