Jonathan Saxty

The commentary argues that Kemi Badenoch and the Conservative Party treated Clacton voters with contempt by declining to field a serious candidate against Nigel Farage. It criticizes Badenoch’s leadership, her handling of candidate selection and her policy agenda, which it characterizes as a diluted version of Reform UK’s platform. The Conservatives are portrayed as discredited after fourteen years in government, while Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are given limited credit for joining Reform. The piece concludes that voters should not forgive Badenoch at the next election.

The commentary argues that Nigel Farage and Reform UK remain a serious political force despite a modest Labour polling lead. It attacks Andy Burnham for allegedly avoiding a general election after replacing Keir Starmer, claiming that Burnham should seek a mandate if he is confident Labour will win. The piece also predicts that a tax-raising October Budget will weaken the government and questions whether Burnham can both retain Starmer’s 2024 manifesto commitments and justify his leadership change.

Jonathan Saxty argues that Kemi Badenoch's attempt to win Reform voters by adopting tougher positions on immigration, the European Convention on Human Rights and net zero is politically unconvincing. He says the Conservatives' fourteen years in government and perceived failures on immigration, Brexit and economic reforms undermine Badenoch's credibility, while Reform already offers similar or stronger policies without the Conservatives' record in office. The strategy risks losing moderate Conservative voters to the Liberal Democrats without attracting Reform supporters, leaving the Conservatives unable to outflank Reform.

The commentary attacks Andy Burnham and Labour over immigration, prison sentencing and alleged unfunded commitments, arguing that Burnham’s holiday reflects a lack of seriousness. It highlights Reform UK proposals to deport illegal migrants and foreign prisoners while criticizing Labour’s planned sentencing changes. The piece also condemns the Conservatives for record immigration, insufficient prison construction, crime, debt and failures to deport foreign criminals, predicting that Labour’s planned tax-raising budget will end its honeymoon period.

Reform UK is presented as preparing “Operation Fortress,” a military-backed plan to intercept and return unauthorized Channel-crossing boats. The proposal follows a migration incident in Ceuta and is framed as evidence that Britain needs tougher border controls and potentially an exit from the European Convention on Human Rights. The piece also argues that Reform UK and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain should cooperate to avoid splitting the right-wing vote before a possible snap election, despite disagreements over issues including cabinet appointments and a ban on kosher meat. It predicts Labour’s support will weaken after the October 28 budget and urges right-wing parties to prepare for an election.

Kemi Badenoch is described as justified in calling for emergency legislation to halt the planned early release of hundreds of prisoners, but the commentary argues that she is partly responsible because the Conservatives introduced and expanded the policy while in government. It attributes the prison-capacity crisis to overcrowding and failures to build new prisons, noting that about 10,000 prisoners were released early under the Conservatives. The piece broadens its criticism to the party’s records on immigration, productivity, public debt, Brexit and small-business regulation, concluding that Labour has worsened problems but that the Conservatives lack credibility to claim they can solve the prison crisis they helped create.

Argues that Andy Burnham lacks a legitimate mandate after becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister, insisting he should call a general election. Claims his proposed direction diverges from Keir Starmer’s manifesto and criticizes his reluctance to seek voter approval, warning of political and economic risks. Suggests Reform UK retains momentum despite establishment pressure and questions Burnham’s ability to address immigration, crime, and economic challenges without electoral legitimacy.