Josh Owens

Oil prices fell about 5% in early Asian trading after Donald Trump canceled planned U.S. strikes on Iran, raising hopes for diplomacy and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI fell 5.88% to $79.77 per barrel and Brent dropped 5.07% to $83.47. The decline followed a volatile July marked by fears of supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and attacks on regional shipping. Two Saudi tankers transited the Bab el-Mandeb, but three further tanker attacks showed that maritime risks remain elevated. OPEC+ also approved a September production increase of roughly 188,000 barrels per day. Iran and Oman were reportedly close to an agreement on a new Hormuz shipping arrangement, though Tehran said the former southern route would not be restored. A lasting diplomatic deal could remove further geopolitical premium from crude prices, while renewed escalation or Gulf export disruptions could push prices sharply higher.

Oil prices rebounded sharply in early Asian trading after renewed Middle East hostilities interrupted hopes of a diplomatic pause. Iran reportedly launched ballistic missiles at U.S. bases across the region, while U.S. and Saudi forces conducted precision strikes against logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq; no U.S. positions were hit. The American Petroleum Institute also reported a 3.3-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories, while a 3.7-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve release pushed reserves to their lowest level since March 1983. Traders are awaiting the Energy Information Administration’s inventory report and monitoring further escalation, with heightened volatility expected to continue.

REalloys is presented as a rapidly expanding U.S.-aligned rare-earth processor after being selected for exclusive negotiations to build heavy rare-earth facilities at Utah’s Tooele Army Depot. The company reportedly raised $100 million, has about $130 million in cash, secured feedstock agreements across North America, Greenland, Kazakhstan and Brazil, partnered with South Korean magnet maker JS Link, and begun qualifying dysprosium, terbium and NdPr materials for defense customers. The article argues that these moves position REalloys to benefit from Pentagon restrictions on Chinese-origin rare-earth materials scheduled for January 1, 2027. It also frames the company as part of a broader U.S. effort to rebuild strategic materials and energy supply chains. The piece is highly promotional and includes a disclosure that Oilprice.com’s owner holds REalloys shares or options, creating a significant conflict of interest.

The article argues that expectations of an impending crude-oil glut have been overturned by escalating conflicts and disruptions at two major chokepoints. Houthi attacks are threatening Saudi tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while the Iran-related blockade of Hormuz has sharply reduced flows; Ukrainian strikes have also disrupted Kazakh exports through Novorossiysk and damaged Russian refining capacity. Although global oil demand has fallen and strategic reserves remain available, depleted inventories, record refining margins and constrained diesel and gasoline production indicate a tight physical fuel market. The disruptions are increasing the risk of sustained high prices, weaker economic growth and a global recession.

Carbon capture and storage has attracted billions in government and corporate funding as a proposed solution for emissions from hard-to-abate industries. However, an IEEFA review found that most of 13 operating projects captured less than their targeted 90% of emissions, while the Global CCS Institute reported only 50 operating facilities in 2024, capturing roughly one-thousandth of global emissions. Costs are also far above earlier estimates, with U.S. gas plants facing an additional $20–$30 per megawatt-hour and European capture, transport, and storage estimated at $170–$340 per tonne. Although governments and major energy companies continue to support CCS, environmentalists and the author argue that it can prolong fossil-fuel use and provide cover for high-emitting industries. CCS may have a limited role, but the article concludes that funding should prioritize permanent low-carbon alternatives and direct emissions reductions.

Brent crude rose above $96 per barrel and WTI gained as the United States launched its 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets. Shipping risks intensified after Iran warned vessels about transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. The threats to major oil chokepoints, combined with a lack of diplomatic progress, fueled fears of supply disruptions and further market volatility. A reported 2-million-barrel increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories provided bearish market data but failed to offset geopolitical concerns.

Waha natural gas prices recovered into positive territory in June 2026 after averaging negative $2.19 per MMBtu during the first half of the year, as the Gulf Coast Express expansion and Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline began adding takeaway capacity. The new infrastructure is reducing Permian Basin congestion, but producers and analysts expect constraints to persist through at least early 2027. Planned Texas projects, including Rio Bravo and Blackcomb, will add substantial capacity, though elevated crude prices could encourage more Permian drilling and associated gas production, potentially creating new bottlenecks.

Aliko Dangote proposes investing $17 billion in a 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Kenya’s Lamu Island, which would supply Kenya and neighboring East African markets while potentially exporting surplus fuels. The project could create more than 60,000 jobs, use Lamu’s deep-water port and support regional trade under the AfCFTA, but its capacity would exceed current East African demand. Environmental groups and local communities oppose the plan because of risks to Lamu’s UNESCO-listed marine ecosystem, while lawyers are seeking comprehensive environmental reviews and public participation. Economists also warn that tax incentives and anti-dumping protections could create a regional monopoly and leave Kenya exposed to stranded-asset and carbon-emissions risks.

Metal markets are being pulled between structural supply deficits and strong demand from power grids, renewable energy and AI data centers on one side, and high energy costs, inflation fears, tighter monetary policy and tariff uncertainty on the other. Copper has the strongest outlook because of constrained supply and resilient Chinese demand. Aluminum prices have fallen sharply, although the gradual return of idled Middle Eastern capacity could prolong supply tightness. Platinum is expected to be relatively resilient, while palladium faces weakening automotive demand, rising inventories and a sharply lower 2026 price forecast; rhodium is projected to remain modestly undersupplied this year before moving close to balance in 2027.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose to five-week highs as U.S.–Iran hostilities continued for an 11th consecutive night. U.S. Central Command said American strikes targeted Iranian military and logistics facilities, while Iran continued attacks affecting commercial shipping. Risks are spreading to the Red Sea after the Houthis threatened Saudi oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting three Saudi tankers to turn around. With diplomatic progress limited, President Donald Trump signaling further military action, and shipping security deteriorating around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, geopolitical risk remains the dominant driver of oil prices despite mixed U.S. inventory data.

U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels to 408.4 million barrels in the week ending June 26, leaving stocks 7% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels, while middle-distillate stocks increased by 2.5 million barrels but remained 8% below the seasonal average. Four-week total petroleum product supplied rose 1.7% year over year to 20.6 million barrels per day, although distillate demand declined 1.9%. Brent and WTI futures traded lower after the data release.

India’s crude imports reached a June record of roughly 5 million barrels per day, including an unprecedented 2.6 million barrels per day from Russia after disruption in the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced Gulf supplies. Limited strategic reserves and declining deliveries from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia forced Indian refiners to rely more heavily on Russian crude, while lower Russian refinery runs and weaker Chinese demand made additional barrels available. Middle Eastern supplies are expected to return as Hormuz traffic recovers, with discounts potentially making Gulf crude more competitive. Nevertheless, Russian oil is likely to retain a substantial share of India’s imports because the crisis established it as a dependable strategic hedge against future disruptions.

Gail Tverberg argues that an Iranian supply disruption could drive oil prices below $40 per barrel rather than produce a sustained price spike. She contends that depleted oil reserves, damaged infrastructure, transport lags, reduced fuel demand, government restrictions and a fragile global economy would turn physical shortages into recession, lower consumption and falling prices. The article predicts prolonged supply-chain failures affecting fuel, food, medicines and industrial inputs, while suggesting that repairing Middle Eastern infrastructure and replenishing U.S. military supplies could take years. It also argues that governments may use conflict and emergency restrictions to manage shrinking energy availability, and concludes that shorter regional supply chains and lower oil prices could help economies adapt to the resulting energy constraint.

University of Michigan researchers have deployed prototype wave-energy devices on Beaver Island in Lake Michigan, where early units powered a light bulb and charged a phone. The technology could eventually provide backup electricity for the island’s roughly 600 permanent residents, reducing reliance on a vulnerable 30-mile underwater cable from mainland Michigan. The project is part of broader interest in Great Lakes wind and hydrokinetic power, although growing AI data-center demand could intensify competition for both energy and water resources in the region.

Oil prices fell after the United States and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire extension that provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. sanctions relief, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Brent and WTI declined as markets anticipated the release of more than 160 million barrels of crude held in the Gulf region. The IEA warned of a potential oil glut in 2027, contrasting with OPEC’s stronger demand outlook. Analysts remain divided over whether markets are accurately pricing the deal’s durability, particularly given Israel’s reservations and the possibility of renewed conflict or supply disruptions.

Brent and WTI prices fell sharply after the United States and Iran announced an agreement intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had been closed for more than 100 days. Donald Trump said oil would flow once the agreement is signed, while Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi and mediators Pakistan and Qatar confirmed that a memorandum had been finalized. Reported provisions include a Lebanon ceasefire, suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, release of up to $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds, and an Iranian commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. Iran could resume crude exports during a 60-day ceasefire, but markets remain cautious until mines are cleared, the agreement is formally signed, and shipping returns to normal.

Oil prices rose sharply in early Asian trading after Iran’s top joint military command declared the Strait of Hormuz closed following new U.S. strikes on Iran. Brent crude reached $95.20 per barrel and WTI $92.30, while markets remained highly volatile amid conflicting claims about shipping activity. Iran said its forces had struck U.S. military targets and alleged attacks on ships, whereas U.S. Central Command denied that the strait was closed or that vessels had been hit. The escalation follows the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter, additional American attacks, falling U.S. crude inventories, and the absence of meaningful progress toward a diplomatic resolution.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading after the United States struck Iranian air-defense, ground-control, and radar facilities near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran’s alleged downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter. Iran denied responsibility and accused Washington of using the incident as a pretext for attack. Brent crude gained 1.03% to $92.39 per barrel and WTI rose 0.91% to $89.00. Markets were already volatile following exchanges between Iran and Israel, while U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.12 million barrels for an eighth consecutive weekly decline. Traders are weighing the risk of further escalation against diplomatic efforts and potential peace talks, with shrinking global inventories increasing the market’s sensitivity to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices rose after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, the first direct Iranian attack since an April ceasefire, raising fears that U.S.-Iran peace talks and broader ceasefire efforts could collapse. Israel retaliated with strikes on military targets in western and central Iran despite Donald Trump's calls for restraint. Although Israel reported intercepting all incoming missiles without casualties, traders remain concerned about escalation, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the loss of oil supplies. Brent crude rose 3.45% to $96.30 per barrel and WTI gained 3.41% to $93.63, while markets continued to hope that diplomacy could prevent a broader conflict and support the reopening of the strait.

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading after a U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire revived hopes for a broader U.S.-Iran agreement and the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and West Texas Intermediate both declined after a sharp rally earlier in the week. The ceasefire calls for Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for the Lebanese Armed Forces to control the territory, but continued exchanges of fire and the failure of an earlier truce have left markets skeptical. Political pressure is also mounting on President Donald Trump over military operations against Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reported no meaningful negotiating breakthrough. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels, underscoring tight market fundamentals and the risk of further price spikes if the Strait remains closed.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose in early Asian trading as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified. U.S. Central Command said Iran launched missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain, while U.S. forces reportedly shot down drones and disabled the Botswana-flagged tanker M/T Lexie after it continued toward Iran’s Kharg Island terminal. The incident was described as the sixth commercial vessel disabled by U.S. forces since April 13. Hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy appeared to be fading, while a seventh consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories, estimated by the American Petroleum Institute at 6.8 million barrels, added further upward pressure. Markets awaited official Energy Information Administration data, with prices expected to remain elevated unless diplomatic talks produce an agreement.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading after Israeli forces expanded operations in southern Lebanon and the United States conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites. WTI climbed 3.27% to $90.22 per barrel and Brent rose 3.36% to $94.18. The escalation threatens U.S.-backed discussions involving Israel and Lebanon and complicates efforts to extend a ceasefire with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has constrained supplies. Weak Chinese factory activity would normally weigh on demand and prices, but Middle East supply risks remain the dominant market driver.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading after reports that the United States conducted fresh strikes on Iranian military targets and downed four Iranian drones. WTI gained 2.06% to $90.51 and Brent rose 2.17% to $96.34, reversing sharp weekly declines driven by hopes for a ceasefire and restored Strait of Hormuz traffic. President Donald Trump signaled that he would not accept an inadequate agreement and ruled out immediate sanctions relief, while Iranian ultra-hardliners criticized negotiators considering compromises with Washington. A 2.8-million-barrel weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories, reported by the American Petroleum Institute, added support to prices. Although the ceasefire and talks remain in place, markets continue to face significant upside risk until a durable peace agreement and a long-term solution for Hormuz shipping are secured.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading after U.S. strikes on Iranian missile sites and vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, reversing part of the previous day’s sharp decline. U.S. Central Command said the operation was intended to protect American troops, while Iranian media reported explosions near Bandar Abbas. The strikes came as Iranian officials traveled to Qatar for negotiations aimed at extending a ceasefire, reopening the strait and potentially clearing mines within 30 days. Some LNG carriers and an Iraqi crude supertanker have resumed passage, but markets remain volatile because a durable reopening depends on diplomatic progress; renewed military action could trigger a much larger price spike.

Oil prices fell more than 5% in early Asian trading after reports that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the Iran-related war was nearing completion, sending Brent below $100 and WTI to $91.63. The proposed deal would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, restore shipping through the strait, continue nuclear negotiations, and require Iran to surrender its enriched uranium. Progress remains uncertain after Donald Trump said negotiations should not be rushed, while Iran disputed that nuclear issues were yet being discussed. Even if an agreement is reached, restoring oil flows and damaged energy infrastructure could take time, and unresolved security guarantees would leave markets exposed to renewed disruption.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading as skepticism increased that U.S.-Iran negotiations would deliver a breakthrough. Brent and WTI recovered after falling about 2% the previous day, following conflicting signals from Iranian and U.S. negotiators. Although the sides have narrowed some differences, major disputes remain unresolved six weeks into a ceasefire. Falling global inventories, elevated fuel costs and concerns about inflation are adding pressure to markets. ADNOC’s chief executive warned that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz might not resume until early 2027, prompting the UAE to expand export capacity through alternative routes. Markets are now watching for either a diplomatic agreement or further military escalation.

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading after President Donald Trump said he had paused a planned strike on Iran to allow negotiations to continue, sending Brent and WTI futures lower. Trump said the pause followed requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, while warning that an attack could still occur at short notice. Iran confirmed that it had communicated with Washington through Pakistan, though few details about the negotiations were available. A 30-day U.S. sanctions waiver allowing some countries to buy Russian seaborne oil also added downward pressure. The article notes that prices could continue rising unless more crude can move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading after drone attacks targeted the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, while President Donald Trump’s visit to China failed to produce an agreement with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent reached $111.50 per barrel and WTI $108.20. Tight physical markets, falling inventories and emergency measures in nearly 80 countries are intensifying concerns about shortages. The International Energy Agency estimates a 6 million-barrel-per-day supply-demand gap, while JPMorgan warns that OECD inventories could reach operational stress levels by early June. Prolonged disruption could push Brent toward $180, with further regional escalation likely to drive prices higher.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate prices rose more than 3% in early Asian trading after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a U.S.-drafted peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” Iran’s reported terms included an immediate end to the war, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to the U.S. blockade on its oil exports—conditions opposed by U.S. regional allies. Markets are now watching for renewed military escalation and whether China might use its influence over Iran to help reopen the Strait, although hopes for Chinese intervention could limit short-term gains.