Julian Borger

US and Qatari officials say negotiations are advancing to restore a US-Iran ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices fell on expectations of a deal. Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are exchanging proposals, but the main talks concern an Oman-Iran temporary shipping route and remain complicated by disputes over transit fees, nuclear issues and divisions within Tehran. Oman is resisting pressure from the US, Europe and Saudi Arabia over fears the arrangement could become permanent. Meanwhile, a commercial vessel was reportedly struck near the strait, and Yemen's Houthi rebels were blamed for a separate attack that sank an Indian-flagged ship in the Red Sea.

Donald Trump says Hamas has agreed to a 14-point roadmap for complete, phased disarmament in Gaza, linked to Israeli military withdrawal and the transfer of civilian administration to a Palestinian technocratic committee supported by Palestinian police and an international stabilisation force. Israel has not formally accepted the plan and officials say it does not meet demands for immediate, complete demilitarisation; far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected it outright. Hamas says disarmament will occur only in parallel with Israel’s withdrawal. Major implementation obstacles remain, including Israeli access restrictions, untrained Palestinian police, absent international forces and the need for credible verification, while Israeli strikes and Palestinian casualties continue.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrive in Washington with sharply contrasting political fortunes but a shared awareness that Donald Trump's support can change without warning. Netanyahu has lost influence after the unsuccessful war against Iran, public criticism from Trump and Israel's exclusion from key negotiations and weapons decisions. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has gained stature as Ukraine resists Russia despite reduced US assistance and develops advanced drone capabilities, although he still needs American backing. His immediate goal is for Trump to support Lindsey Graham's Russia sanctions bill, while renewed large-scale US military aid appears unlikely because American weapons stocks have been heavily depleted in the Middle East. The parallel visits underscore the instability of Trump's foreign policy and the continuing asymmetry between US commitments to Israel and Ukraine.

Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and politician Zvi Sukkot have threatened to take control of Solomon’s Pools, an ancient reservoir complex near Bethlehem that is used by local Palestinians for recreation. The site, whose water infrastructure dates from the Roman era and later periods, was placed under Palestinian civil and security control through the 1995 Oslo Accord. Increased settler activity and an Israeli military raid in July have raised fears that its seizure would establish a precedent for appropriating parts of Area A and further weaken the Palestinian Authority. Archaeologists and Palestinian officials reject claims that the site is uniquely Jewish, arguing that its layered history reflects successive civilizations and should not be used to advance a single political narrative.

The Board of Peace has reduced its original full Gaza reconstruction plan to a limited pilot camp near Rafah as Israeli restrictions and political uncertainty stall progress. Preparations for an international security force and Palestinian police remain incomplete, with key construction delayed ahead of Israel’s October elections. Israeli airstrikes and territorial advances continue to undermine negotiations on disarmament, while international actors express concern that renewed conflict could derail even the scaled-down initiative. Funding gaps persist as the EU raises targeted aid and Israeli-held Palestinian revenues become a point of contention. Palestinian officials warn that the pilot scheme may entrench unequal conditions without offering a comprehensive solution.

Donald Trump rejected Iran’s declaration that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, while US Central Command said shipping was still moving through the waterway, albeit at reduced levels. The dispute followed Iran’s attack on the container ship GFS Galaxy and US strikes on 140 Iranian military targets, after which Iran launched drone and missile attacks against US-linked sites across the Gulf. The escalation has brought a ceasefire agreement and planned nuclear and sanctions negotiations close to collapse. Iran insists on recognition of its control over the strait, while the US says it is keeping the passage open by force. The renewed fighting has unsettled markets, although oil prices remain below wartime highs, suggesting traders expect both sides to avoid a return to full-scale war.

Eyewitnesses and the Gaza truckers association say Israeli soldiers shot and killed aid driver Ahmad Esleem after ordering him and others out of their vehicles along the Philadelphi corridor. The association claims the convoy was fully coordinated with international agencies and describes the killing as a deliberate execution, prompting drivers to consider halting operations. The IDF confirms a shooting but says troops perceived a threat and followed protocol. The incident follows previous fatal shootings of aid workers and continues amid heightened risks for drivers transporting humanitarian supplies through Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza.

An Israeli missile strike in Gaza killed aid worker Mohamed al-Wahidi, who had organised public World Cup screenings, along with two young brothers and another man nearby. Israel said it was targeting a Hamas militant and that al-Wahidi was not the intended target, adding that the incident is under review. Tributes from relatives described al-Wahidi as a respected community figure. Casualty figures highlight ongoing civilian deaths since the ceasefire, and a recent UN inquiry reported deliberate targeting of Palestinian children during the conflict.

Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank have intensified land seizures and attacks on Palestinian communities ahead of national elections, as far‑right coalition figures seek to entrench control before a possible shift in power. Newly expanded farm outposts such as Maoz Tzur are driving rapid de facto annexation through violence, land appropriation and restrictive road networks, aided by policies advanced by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben‑Gvir. Palestinian villagers report escalating assaults and dwindling legal recourse, while advocacy groups document unprecedented territorial expansion. International sanctions on settler‑linked networks have had limited effect amid divergent positions among global powers. Analysts warn that reversing these trends would be difficult even under a new Israeli government due to entrenched settler influence and political backing.

Hamas announced it would relinquish governing authority in Gaza to the US-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, though without agreeing to disarm as Israel and the US demand. The proposed transition faces obstacles, including Israel blocking NCAG members from entering Gaza and ongoing ceasefire violations amid humanitarian crisis conditions. Analysts view Hamas’s move as an attempt to revive the stalled peace process and counter Israeli proposals to restrict reconstruction to limited zones. The Board of Peace’s response remained cautious, emphasizing the need for unified control of weapons. Regional political dynamics, including upcoming Israeli elections, continue to delay progress on Gaza’s reconstruction and future governance.

US–Europe tensions escalate as efforts to appoint a new high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina collapse amid disputes driven by US pressure and European resistance. Washington forces the early removal of Christian Schmidt and pushes Antonio Zanardi Landi as his successor, raising concerns that the move supports US-linked business interests through the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline awarded to an American company with Trump ties. European states remain divided over alternatives, weakening their ability to counter the US position. The standoff highlights the fragility of Bosnia’s postwar governance system, ongoing ethnic divisions, and the geopolitical struggle shaping control over strategic infrastructure projects.

A diplomatic rift between the US and Europe has intensified over the appointment of Bosnia’s next high representative, with Washington pushing to replace Christian Schmidt with Italian diplomat Antonio Zanardi Landi. European governments suspect the move is linked to US efforts to advance a controversial $1bn gas pipeline contract awarded to AAFS Infrastructure and Energy, a firm with connections to Donald Trump. The dispute highlights broader tensions over US priorities in the Balkans and the potential weakening of postwar institutions established under the Dayton agreement. Concerns are rising among Bosniak leaders and European officials that US pressure could undermine regional stability and empower separatist actors in Republika Srpska.

Israeli forces have killed 235 Palestinian children in the West Bank since October 2023 amid loosened rules of engagement and a lack of indictments. Human rights group B’Tselem reports no evidence that minors killed in 2025 posed threats, countering claims from senior Israeli commanders. Families describe children being shot while playing or inside their homes, with investigations yielding no outcomes. A UN inquiry accuses Israeli authorities of deliberately targeting children, citing ongoing violations even after a partial Gaza ceasefire. Israeli officials deny intentionally harming civilians and say operations target terrorist cells. The cases highlight mounting concerns over impunity and the rising toll on Palestinian children.

The resurgence of Bosnia’s historic lily flag during the World Cup reflects growing Bosniak frustration with the foreign-imposed national flag and with stalled political progress since the Dayton agreement. Younger Bosniaks increasingly embrace the lily as an assertion of identity and defiance amid rising Serb separatism and perceived shifts in US policy. Ethnic divisions remain visible, from suppressed celebrations in Croat- and Serb-majority areas to limited Serb participation in the national football team. Despite political manipulation of ethnic identities, everyday interactions often show more nuance, with many citizens privately supporting Bosnia’s team regardless of ethnic background.

The tentative US‑Iran deal restores conditions to those before the US‑Israel war on Iran, despite extensive regional devastation and political fallout. Iran emerges militarily strengthened while civil liberties remain constrained, and the US suffers a major loss of credibility after failing to achieve regime change or nuclear concessions. Israel faces a political setback as its stated goals remain unmet and tensions with Washington deepen. Key uncertainties remain over shipping security, frozen asset releases and enforcement of ceasefire terms, while upcoming nuclear negotiations in Geneva revisit the same unresolved enrichment issues that preceded the conflict.

Fluctuating US-Iran negotiations continue amid Trump’s contradictory threats and peace declarations, causing ongoing market swings and uncertainty. Talks focus on securing a memorandum of understanding to stabilize the ceasefire and reopen the strait of Hormuz, though major disputes persist over financial arrangements and nuclear commitments. Iran seeks upfront access to frozen assets, while the US demands concrete nuclear limitations. Internal divisions within Iran and Trump’s shifting demands have repeatedly stalled progress. Despite pressure from US and Israeli hawks for a decisive military strike, analysts suggest Trump is positioning himself to claim diplomatic success if an agreement is reached.

Recent clashes between Iran and Israel exposed growing tensions between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, whose diverging political needs increasingly undermine an unstable ceasefire. Netanyahu’s actions, driven by electoral pressure and the desire for a decisive victory, repeatedly defy Trump’s warnings, prompting retaliatory exchanges involving Iran and Hezbollah. Trump seeks to avoid escalation that could damage his political standing and global economic stability, yet remains unable to finalize a peace deal without appearing weaker than previous administrations. Both leaders face domestic vulnerabilities and legal risks, using conflict to bolster political survival, leaving the region trapped in a precarious limbo as long as their conflicting agendas persist.

A dispute between the US and European states over selecting a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina has led Washington to threaten a reassessment of its role in the international presence there. The US backed Italian diplomat Antonio Zanardi Landi, while European states supported France’s René Troccaz, preventing consensus within the Peace Implementation Council. Tensions have been heightened by concerns about the Trump administration’s motives, including its previous removal of sanctions on Serb leader Milorad Dodik and business interests pursued by Trump associates in the region. Analysts argue that Washington miscalculated European support and that the dispute reflects broader strategic and commercial motives within US policy toward Bosnia.