Julianne Geiger

Iraq aims to raise oil production from roughly 4 million barrels per day to 8–10 million within six years, but it needs OPEC to approve a higher quota. OPEC+ has commissioned DeGolyer and MacNaughton to assess members’ sustainable capacity ahead of 2027 baseline negotiations. Even with quota approval, Iraq faces major export constraints after disruptions to Strait of Hormuz traffic. Baghdad plans to expand shipments through Turkey’s Ceyhan port and develop routes through Syria’s Baniyas and Jordan’s Aqaba, but existing pipeline capacity is limited and a proposed Syria route could take four years and cost at least $15 billion. China is already increasing purchases of Iraqi Basrah Heavy and Basrah Medium crude as Middle Eastern supply routes fracture.

The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude inventories fell by 328,000 barrels in the week ending August 14, while 5.3 million barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Commercial crude stocks have declined by more than 49 million barrels over 18 weeks, although production edged up to 13.805 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.076 million barrels, but distillate stocks dropped by 2.797 million barrels and remained 12% below the five-year average. Cushing inventories also fell, while Brent and WTI prices posted modest weekly gains.

Oracle’s proposed $165 billion Project Jupiter data center in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, faces a possible schedule setback after Energy Transfer subsidiary Transwestern Pipeline delayed the Green Chile Project’s expected in-service date from August 15, 2026, to February 1, 2027. The pipeline is intended to supply up to 400 million cubic feet per day of natural gas for as much as 2.5 gigawatts of Bloom Energy fuel cells. The delay is linked to the New Mexico State Land Office’s refusal to approve a route crossing state-owned land. The situation highlights the permitting and fuel-supply challenges facing data center developers seeking dedicated power instead of waiting for grid connections. Oracle shares fell 4%, while Energy Transfer shares rose 1.4%.

South Africa’s Constitutional Court overturned a 2024 Supreme Court of Appeal ruling, blocking Shell and Impact Africa from conducting seismic surveys along the Wild Coast. Local communities and environmental groups argued that consultation had been inadequate. The decision does not affect Shell’s other South African projects, including proposed ultra-deepwater drilling in the Orange Basin and a potential farm-in to Block 2C with PetroSA, but it underscores the permitting and legal obstacles slowing South Africa’s offshore oil sector compared with neighboring Namibia.

The U.S. Department of Energy is preparing to provide X-energy with up to an additional $1 billion for its planned advanced nuclear project with Dow in Seadrift, Texas, bringing potential federal funding since 2021 to $2.15 billion. The funding requires an equal private-sector match and supports deployment of X-energy reactors to replace existing energy and steam systems at Dow’s petrochemical complex. The partners have submitted a construction permit application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and aim to begin operations in the early 2030s, making the project a test of whether federal cost-sharing can move advanced reactors from demonstration to commercial industrial use.

The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 9.072 million barrels in the week ending August 7, far exceeding expectations for a 500,000-barrel draw. The build was partly attributed to higher crude imports relative to exports. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by another 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels, while U.S. production rose to 13.804 million barrels per day. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell, and Cushing crude stocks increased by 1.571 million barrels. Despite the inventory build, Brent and WTI prices rose amid tensions surrounding Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to 3.71 million barrels per day over the four weeks through August 9, with the latest weekly average dropping to 3.25 million bpd. Recovering refinery operations redirected more crude to domestic processing, while Ukrainian attacks on refineries, tankers and storage facilities disrupted loading. Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga were operating well below recent levels, and tight Black Sea tanker availability and port constraints limited export capacity. Despite the recent decline, Russia’s year-to-date seaborne exports remain above last year’s average, with shipments to India continuing strongly.

Citi raised its third-quarter Brent forecast to $80 per barrel from $75 because the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict, constrained Strait of Hormuz shipping, reduced Middle East production, and attacks on commercial vessels have sustained geopolitical risk. The bank maintained its fourth-quarter forecast of $70 and expects Brent to average $65 in 2027, assuming oil flows through Hormuz improve. Goldman Sachs takes a more bullish near-term view, projecting Brent at $80–$90 until an agreement or major escalation becomes clear, with prices potentially reaching $120 if the strait remains closed.

ADNOC says 15 of its vessels have been struck by missiles or drones since the war began, including three attacks during the week, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others. The attacks have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, increased freight costs, and discouraged some shipowners from entering the Persian Gulf. The UAE has kept exports flowing partly through loading facilities outside the strait, while ADNOC expands its fleet with six very large crude carriers and five very large gas carriers in a $1.3 billion acquisition, alongside four newly ordered LNG carriers. The company says the additions will support growing crude and LNG exports despite worsening maritime-security risks.

Russia’s crude oil and condensate production rose by about 100,000 barrels per day in July to more than 9 million bpd, according to industry sources cited by Reuters. The increase followed stronger exports and a partial recovery in refinery operations, despite sanctions and attacks on energy infrastructure. OPEC estimated Russian production at 8.928 million bpd in June. Intensified Ukrainian drone strikes in late July and early August have since forced refinery outages, potentially freeing additional crude for export but worsening pressure on Russia’s limited tanker, port and pipeline capacity. Russia plans to raise western-port crude exports by 4% in August, although further refinery disruptions could leave producers with more oil than export routes can handle.

Mexico has banned hydraulic fracturing in the Tampico-Misantla basin beneath Veracruz and Tamaulipas, citing dense populations, indigenous communities and freshwater reserves. The decision comes as Mexico seeks to reduce reliance on U.S. pipeline gas, which supplies about 75% of domestic demand. A government panel recommended increasing conventional production first, but even proposed measures would reduce the import share only to about 50%. Pemex aims to raise output by 2030, while Mexico's growing power sector continues to increase gas demand. The ban preserves the possibility of fracking in saltwater basins, particularly in northern Mexico, but leaves the country facing a difficult balance between energy security, environmental protection and community concerns.

Saudi Aramco is cutting the September official selling price of Arab Light for Asian buyers by 50 cents per barrel, to a $2 discount against the regional benchmark. The move reflects expectations that a possible Iran-Oman agreement could allow more tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to a roughly 20% decline in Brent crude over two weeks. Saudi exports through Hormuz remain limited to about 5 million barrels per day, or 70% of normal levels, while Aramco uses Yanbu and considers routes through the SUMED pipeline and the Mediterranean. Continued fighting, vessel attacks and Houthi threats around Bab el-Mandeb remain significant obstacles, while Asian refiners seek discounts to offset longer voyages and higher shipping costs.

Oil prices fell sharply as traders anticipated a possible U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite no deal having been signed. U.S. officials and President Donald Trump expressed optimism, while Iran denied direct talks and maintained demands for control over shipping through the strait. Actual vessel traffic remained extremely low, and a nearby cargo-ship attack added uncertainty. The conflict has disrupted a major global energy corridor, forcing Persian Gulf producers to cut output, while Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to stay elevated until a formal agreement or further escalation occurs.

ExxonMobil and Chevron earned a combined $26.5 billion in the second quarter as war-related supply disruptions drove crude and refined-fuel prices higher. Chevron reported $12.2 billion in net income, while Exxon earned $14.5 billion; both companies also increased production and ran refineries near capacity. Refining profits surged as Middle Eastern outages, lost Russian capacity and limited Chinese fuel exports tightened gasoline and diesel supplies. President Donald Trump nevertheless wants gasoline prices reduced to $2.25 per gallon, compared with a national average of $4.11, and has ordered a Justice Department investigation into alleged price gouging. Chevron warned that export restrictions could discourage investment and reduce future supply.

U.S. active drilling rigs rose to 588, including a one-rig increase in oil rigs to 451, while gas rigs held steady at 127. Weekly U.S. crude production edged down to 13.796 million barrels per day but remained 482,000 barrels per day above year-ago levels. Well-completion crews increased to 198, and drilling activity grew in both the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford. Brent and WTI prices rose on the day to $89.95 and $84.67 per barrel, respectively, although both remained below the prior week’s levels.

Oil prices rebounded sharply in early Asian trading after renewed Middle East hostilities ended a brief easing of geopolitical risk. Iran reportedly launched ballistic missiles at U.S. bases across the region, while U.S. and Saudi forces conducted strikes on logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq; no U.S. positions were hit. The American Petroleum Institute also reported a 3.3-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories, alongside a 3.7-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve release that pushed stocks to their lowest level since March 1983. Traders are now focused on further military escalation and the Energy Information Administration’s inventory report, with continued volatility expected.

The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.296 million barrels for the week ending July 24, following a 2.603-million-barrel increase the previous week. Commercial inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have declined by more than 54 million barrels over fifteen weeks, while the SPR lost another 3.7 million barrels to reach 307.7 million barrels, its lowest level in over 43 years and close to the generally cited operational minimum. U.S. production also edged lower to 13.798 million barrels per day. Gasoline stocks rose by 918,000 barrels, distillates fell by 125,000 barrels, and Cushing inventories declined by 273,000 barrels. Brent and WTI prices were down sharply amid broader oil-market volatility.

OPEC+ is expected to approve one final increase of roughly 188,000 barrels per day for September before freezing monthly production targets through the end of 2026. The pause would leave about 2 million barrels per day of group-wide cuts in place, while members negotiate new 2027 baselines based on sustainable production capacity. Quota discussions are complicated by war-related export disruptions, refinery and terminal outages, and bottlenecks affecting Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia. The International Energy Agency warns that a substantial oil surplus could emerge if flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal.

Saudi Aramco shut its 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery on July 27 after a Houthi attack reportedly damaged its gasification complex and tank farm. Repairs are tentatively expected to finish by August 15, although Aramco has not confirmed the damage or timeline. The shutdown removes substantial refining capacity amid tight gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel supplies, thin inventories and elevated refining margins. A reported Houthi strike on Aramco facilities in Yanbu also raises concern that attacks are extending to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea shipping workaround. Russian refinery restarts provide limited relief, but export restrictions and ongoing shortages mean the global fuel market has fewer alternatives than the crude market.

Meeting the European Union’s targets for installing heat pumps, solar capacity and wind capacity could reduce the bloc’s natural gas demand by about a quarter by the end of 2030, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. The estimated savings would be roughly twice the volume of LNG the EU could import from Qatar by then. Heat pumps and additional renewable generation already reduced EU gas demand by an estimated 8.8 billion cubic metres in 2024. However, the EU remains off track for its 42.5% renewable-energy target for 2030: renewables accounted for 26.2% of final energy consumption in the latest provisional figures, requiring a substantially faster pace of annual growth through 2030. Low gas storage levels and heightened LNG competition linked to conflict in the Middle East continue to pose energy-security risks.

Tata Power plans to begin construction of its first nuclear plant around early 2028 and aims to have a private-sector facility operating by 2032 or 2033. CEO Praveer Sinha said the company has shortlisted potential sites in at least three Indian states. The plans follow India's 2025 Atomic Energy Bill, or SHANTI Act, which opened civil nuclear investment to private companies. India seeks to expand nuclear capacity from 8.8 GW to 100 GW by 2047, requiring an estimated 19.28 trillion rupees in cumulative investment, while state-owned NTPC is expected to provide about 30% of the new capacity and India plans to build five small modular reactors by 2033.

A Reuters poll of nearly three dozen economists cut India’s projected GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2027 to 6.6%, down from 7.7% in the previous fiscal year. Higher oil prices linked to the renewed Middle East conflict, weak private investment, weaker global growth and potential El Niño-related monsoon disruption are weighing on the outlook. The IMF has also lowered its forecast to 6.4%, while economists warn that firms may defer major capital expenditures as demand visibility deteriorates.

Anti-government protests in Tripoli and elsewhere in Libya have escalated over frequent power cuts and high electricity bills, with demonstrators entering the Mellitah Oil and Gas complex. Protesters reportedly seek to halt gas exports to Italy and pressure the Government of National Unity, although it was unclear whether supplies had yet been disrupted. A prolonged shutdown could undermine Libya’s efforts to revive its oil industry and add further strain to global oil, gas and LNG markets already affected by Middle Eastern supply losses.

Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked tankers have driven tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to a multi-month low. Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude from Yanbu through Egypt’s Ain Sukhna port, the SUMED pipeline, and Sidi Kerir, while at least eight empty VLCCs are headed to Sidi Kerir. Tankers are also considering longer journeys through the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope, as concerns remain elevated despite U.S.-Iran de-escalation efforts.

Iran is accelerating safety, fire-detection, storage, and other infrastructure upgrades at Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of the country’s oil exports. The work comes amid renewed U.S. threats, including President Donald Trump’s depiction of a possible strike on the island, despite recent signs of de-escalation. Maritime intelligence data indicated that 24 dark tankers were waiting near Kharg Island, suggesting continued efforts to move Iranian crude while avoiding detection and operating under a U.S. blockade east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Eni and TotalEnergies have made the final investment decision to develop the Cronos gas field offshore Cyprus, the country's first hydrocarbon development. The companies each hold a 50% stake in the project, which contains more than 3 trillion cubic feet of gas initially in place and is expected to begin production in 2028 at roughly 500 million cubic feet per day. Gas will be processed through existing facilities in Egypt and liquefied at the Damietta LNG plant for export, primarily to Europe. The project is intended to strengthen European energy security and support the development of an Eastern Mediterranean gas hub.

Japan plans to invest through Japanese companies in overseas oil pipeline projects, particularly in the Middle East, to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Before the Iran war, roughly 95% of Japan’s crude imports came from the Middle East, but supply disruptions caused April imports from the region to fall 67.2% year over year, the lowest level since records began in 1979. Japan has released strategic reserves and increased imports from alternative suppliers including the United States and Russia, while its June oil import bill reached a record $89.46 billion despite lower volumes.

Australia has launched a feasibility study for what could become the country’s first new oil refinery in six decades. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says domestic refining could improve fuel self-sufficiency and shield Australia from global oil shocks, although the government continues to support transitioning away from fossil fuels. Fuel insecurity worsened after the Strait of Hormuz crisis and a fire at one of Australia’s two remaining refineries, prompting temporary fuel-tax relief and emergency diesel and jet-fuel imports. The proposed facility’s location and commercial viability must still be established.

Saudi Aramco may raise the price of crude shipped to Asian buyers by as much as $5 per barrel to offset higher costs caused by Houthi attacks and disruption in the Red Sea. Saudi cargoes are being rerouted from Yanbu through Egypt’s Sidi Kerir and around Africa, potentially adding $10 million per cargo and roughly a month to the journey. The rerouting highlights growing pressure on Middle Eastern oil transport as both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz face severe disruption.

Oil prices extended their decline as a fourth consecutive night passed without attacks between the United States and Iran, reducing the geopolitical risk premium. WTI and Brent fell in early Asian trading after Donald Trump and Iranian officials signaled that diplomatic talks were progressing, although both sides remain prepared to resume hostilities. Ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions and Houthi attacks continue to support prices, but weakening consumption at near-$100 oil and broad inventory builds point to demand destruction. Markets are awaiting American Petroleum Institute inventory data, while further escalation could send prices higher and a diplomatic breakthrough could accelerate the decline.

Kazakhstan resumed crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium after a week-long shutdown caused by drone attacks near the Novorossiysk terminal. Two tankers began loading crude from the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil project, while producers restarted deliveries into the pipeline. Production had fallen to about 1 million barrels per day from a June average of 2.16 million bpd after Kazakhstan ordered output cuts to prevent storage overflows. The 1,500-kilometer CPC route carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, but the Energy Ministry said operations would remain subject to security assessments and did not specify when production would return to normal.

Chinese buyers plan to re-export a U.S. LNG cargo received at Yangpu rather than import it domestically, allowing them to avoid China’s 25% tariff and benefit from higher prices elsewhere. The cargo was placed in bonded storage, and an empty tanker’s arrival suggests it may soon be loaded for re-export. The move indicates China is not sufficiently short of LNG to absorb the tariff, despite disruptions to Qatari and UAE supplies. Chinese LNG imports nevertheless rose 8.3% year over year to 5.68 million tons in June, while state importers are seeking longer-term supplies from exporters less exposed to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

TotalEnergies will appeal a Paris Judicial Court ruling that held it responsible for climate change and ordered it to align its business with climate goals under France’s duty of vigilance law. The company argues that global climate change and emissions from customers’ use of its products fall outside the law’s scope and that the ruling conflicts with legal certainty and business freedom. The case follows similar climate litigation against Shell in the Netherlands, where a 2024 appeals-court decision overturned an earlier emissions-reduction order.

India’s Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. has instructed suppliers bidding to provide up to 1 million barrels of crude for late-August delivery to avoid both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The unprecedented restriction reflects continued security risks from Houthi attacks and depressed tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz chokepoints. MRPL may retain the restrictions in future tenders if conditions in West Asia fail to improve, even though U.S. and Iranian strikes have been suspended and crude prices have fallen.

Russia’s fuel crisis is reportedly easing as several oil refineries resume operations, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, although shortages remain acute in parts of Siberia. The crisis followed Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, fuel routes and vessels during a period of peak demand. Russia has restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supplies, while further attacks have disrupted Black Sea export terminals, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium facility and the Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk. The disruptions have also forced Kazakhstan to reduce production at Chevron’s Tengiz field as storage capacity fills.

Houthi threats and recent attacks in the Red Sea have prompted the Saudi crude tanker Olympic Luck to abandon the shorter Bab el-Mandeb route to Asia and travel north through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and around Africa. The alternative route adds roughly a month to the voyage and increases costs. Other tankers are also avoiding Bab el-Mandeb, while Saudi crude exports continue through a combination of the SUMED pipeline, the Cape of Good Hope route, and limited traffic under a Houthi carve-out for Chinese-linked cargoes.

Australian nationwide gasoline prices reached US$1.27 per liter in the week ending July 26, their highest level since late March, while diesel prices also hit a multi-month high. The increases followed Middle East hostilities and higher international crude prices, with Australia particularly exposed because it imports most transportation fuel and had one of its two refineries offline after a fire. The federal government previously halved fuel excise for three months and secured additional diesel from Brunei and South Korea, as well as jet fuel from China, to strengthen supplies. Falling oil prices after a recent de-escalation may offer relief, but continued uncertainty over the conflict threatens Australia’s economic outlook and monetary policy.

DCC Energy has agreed to a roughly $7.7 billion cash takeover by a consortium led by KKR and Energy Capital Partners, after rejecting an initial offer that undervalued the Irish distributor. Shareholders will receive $87.17 per share, a $1.97 final dividend, and a possible additional $1.67 payment if DCC sells its Nexora technology division for at least $800 million. The transaction is expected to rank among Europe's largest energy-sector deals of 2026, reflecting heightened investor interest in energy distribution and infrastructure amid Middle Eastern conflict and Europe's continued dependence on imported oil and gas.

Tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to a multi-month low after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi shipments and attacked two Saudi oil tankers. Kpler data showed that only 11 commodity tankers crossed the chokepoint on Sunday, including seven oil tankers. Operators have rerouted vessels toward the Suez Canal or turned back, while some tankers have switched off their transponders to reduce exposure. Although there were signs of de-escalation by Monday, shipping activity had not yet recovered at either Bab el-Mandeb or the Strait of Hormuz.

European benchmark natural gas prices fell as much as 8.6% after the United States paused strikes on Iran and Tehran indicated it would halt retaliatory attacks. The decline followed a sharp rally driven by fears over disruptions to Qatari LNG exports and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Despite the easing tensions, Europe’s gas storage remains well below the five-year average and could reach its second-lowest seasonal level in 15 years, leaving the region under pressure to secure LNG before winter.

Japan may seek financing from foreign banks, including JPMorgan and other U.S. lenders, to help deliver a $33 billion investment in U.S. natural gas projects pledged under last year’s trade agreement with the Trump administration. Loans could be guaranteed by Japan’s export credit agency, NEXI, while the Japan Bank for International Cooperation would provide additional state-backed funding. The wider agreement includes a $550 billion Japanese investment commitment, with the energy package also covering a 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant and a Gulf deepwater oil port designed to handle 1 million barrels of crude per day and expand U.S. export capacity.

China’s crude oil imports are estimated to have risen to an average of 7.8 million barrels per day in July, up sharply from 6.2 million barrels per day in June, driven by increased purchases of Russian crude and greater Middle Eastern tanker arrivals. The increase could support higher oil prices after China’s June imports reached their lowest level in more than a decade. Meanwhile, a temporary halt in U.S.–Iran attacks has eased immediate tensions, but shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remains disrupted, with Iranian officials expressing skepticism that the pause will lead to lasting peace.

Oil prices fell more than 5% after the United States and Iran signaled a halt to attacks following two weeks of escalation that had pushed Brent above $100. Washington said the pause would give diplomacy room, while Iran indicated it would stop operations as long as the United States did. The easing of immediate conflict risk prompted profit-taking, but sustained declines will depend on tanker traffic recovering through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Shipping risks, military constraints, domestic U.S. political pressure and the possibility of renewed attacks are expected to keep oil markets volatile.

Renewed conflict has undermined expectations of an imminent global oil glut. Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian attacks affecting Kazakh exports through Novorossiysk have constrained crude and refined-product flows. Diesel and gasoline markets are especially tight because refining capacity is limited, while strategic stock releases have reduced the buffer against future disruptions. Although weaker demand in Europe, China, and globally reflects high prices and recession risks, the article argues that supply-chain blockades and shrinking inventories remain the dominant features of the market. The World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast, while the IEA says emergency stocks remain available but warns that there is no room for complacency.

Governments and major energy companies have committed billions of dollars to carbon capture and storage as a way to decarbonize industries that are difficult to electrify. However, an IEEFA review found that most of 13 operating projects captured below their 90% design targets, while the Global CCS Institute reported only 50 operating facilities worldwide in 2024, capturing roughly one-thousandth of global emissions. Costs are also substantially higher than expected, ranging from an estimated $20–$30 per MWh for U.S. gas plants to $170–$340 per tonne for capture, transport and storage in Europe. Germany, the United Kingdom and Denmark continue to provide major financial support, but environmental critics argue CCS could prolong natural-gas and oil use, enable greenwashing and divert funding from permanent low-carbon alternatives. CCS may retain a limited role, but its technical, financial and commercial challenges undermine its prospects as a central decarbonization strategy.

Russia's Sheskharis oil terminal at Novorossiysk has reportedly stopped loading crude tankers after July 21, following drone attacks that also halted tanker activity at the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. The two facilities together form a major Black Sea export hub, and the disruption has forced Kazakhstan to cut production, including at Chevron-linked Tengiz operations. Ukraine's expanding attacks on maritime and export infrastructure, combined with Russia's warnings about unsafe navigation, are increasing shipping risks. With Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions already lifting oil prices and inventories providing less of a cushion, a prolonged shutdown could remove substantial additional crude supply from global markets.

JPMorgan estimates that an 81% chance of a current El Niño strengthening into a very strong or “super” event, combined with elevated oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions, could slow the global decline in inflation in 2027. The weather event could raise global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points, while $100 oil, tight diesel supplies, higher fertilizer and transportation costs, and expensive packaging could push food inflation 1.3% to 1.5% higher. Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel amid threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, while Kazakhstan’s production cuts and constrained Russian refining capacity add to supply pressure. Emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia are expected to be most exposed because food represents a larger share of household spending, although Europe and the United States would also face higher imported food and energy costs.

U.S. active drilling rigs fell by three to 587 for the week, with oil rigs down two to 450 and gas rigs up one to 127. U.S. crude production also declined slightly week over week to 13.798 million barrels per day, while frac-spread crews fell by four to 196. The Permian Basin lost one rig to 258, whereas the Eagle Ford remained at 47. Despite the pullback in drilling activity, total rigs and production remained above year-earlier levels, and oil prices stayed substantially higher than a week earlier, with Brent near $96 per barrel and WTI near $88.

Saudi crude exports from Yanbu on the Red Sea fell 41% from a March peak of 4.07 million barrels per day to about 2.39 million bpd in June, according to Wood Mackenzie vessel-tracking and cargo data. Saudi Arabia had redirected much of its oil away from Persian Gulf terminals through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu to reduce exposure to Strait of Hormuz risks during the Iran war. The strategy has left exports dependent on the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, where the Iran-aligned Houthis claim to have attacked two Saudi tankers and declared a naval blockade. Analysts warn that the apparent diversification shifted Saudi Arabia's exposure from one conflict-zone bottleneck to another, threatening a major crude supply route to Asia.

Indian state-owned refiners are seeking crude from Angola, Venezuela and other non-Middle Eastern sources after conflict-related disruptions trapped contracted supplies in the Persian Gulf west of the Strait of Hormuz. BPCL is testing new Venezuelan and Angolan grades, while HPCL reported receiving almost none of its Middle Eastern term supplies in the first quarter. Indian Oil and MRPL have suspended Iraqi crude loadings because the security risks make tanker transit through Hormuz too dangerous. Russian crude imports remain near record highs despite the end of a U.S. waiver, but India is increasingly making purchasing decisions based on availability rather than cost or optimization.

ADNOC has issued its seventh crude tender since early June, offering millions of barrels for loading between August and October from UAE ports inside and outside the Persian Gulf, as well as through ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah and Malaysia. The company is continuing these sales despite renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, and will reject bids offering discounted differentials. ADNOC reportedly sold more than 74 million barrels through earlier tenders, while the UAE’s crude production rose to an estimated 4.1 million barrels per day in June after leaving OPEC and increasing output. The sales strategy reflects the UAE’s efforts to bypass or reduce reliance on the increasingly risky Hormuz route.

Pakistan’s goods transporters have warned that they may call a nationwide strike at any time in response to soaring fuel costs and the government’s decision to revise gasoline and diesel prices daily. Pakistan Goods Transport Alliance president Malik Shehzad Awan said frequent diesel increases threaten the survival of road freight businesses. The government says daily pricing will make domestic fuel costs more transparent and responsive to international markets, but transporters are demanding negotiations. Meanwhile, Pakistani refiners are seeking crude supplies from the United States, Nigeria, Singapore and Central Asia as Middle East conflict threatens shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Only one oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on July 23, the lowest daily level since May 7, while no tanker entered the Persian Gulf. Kpler data showed the New Giant leaving with about two million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude bound for China. Tankers continued using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in relatively high numbers, but some rerouted through the Suez Canal and around Africa to avoid Houthi attacks, substantially lengthening voyages to Asia. Saudi Aramco has begun offering crude loadings through Egypt’s Sidi Kerir port, as renewed escalation involving the Houthis, Iran and U.S. threats raises the risk of further oil-supply disruption.

The Saudi crude tanker Merbabu transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with its AIS transponder switched off after the Iran-aligned Houthis announced a blockade targeting Saudi oil shipments. The Greek-owned vessel later reappeared in the Arabian Sea, while other tankers continued using the route or turned back toward the Suez Canal. Maritime intelligence indicates that Houthi enforcement is focused more on crew and vessel ownership than cargo, allowing some China-bound tankers carrying Saudi crude to pass despite heightened Red Sea risks.

Chinese refiners have purchased all Russian ESPO crude cargoes scheduled to load at Kozmino in August, weeks earlier than usual. The buying surge has narrowed ESPO’s discount to ICE Brent from roughly $3–$4 per barrel to about $1, as attacks and military escalation have severely disrupted oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. With Middle Eastern supplies increasingly constrained, China is securing Russian crude that can reach its eastern ports in about a week.

The United States is making cooperation on small modular nuclear reactors a priority in its engagement with Southeast Asia as electricity demand rises. U.S. Ambassador to ASEAN Kevin Kim said Washington is in discussions with several regional governments, following a July 7 memorandum of understanding with Japan and South Korea to accelerate SMR deployment in third countries across the Indo-Pacific. The broader strategy also includes expanded LNG exports, grid technology, critical-mineral supply chains, and a $1.5 billion energy-security investment platform. Additional initiatives include funding for energy investment in the Philippines, Mekong-region mineral supply chains, and power-market development in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Cambodia is building its first LNG-fueled power station, a 900-megawatt facility intended to diversify the country's energy mix, attracting potential suppliers from the United States, Australia, Canada and Southeast Asia. Although Cambodia obtains a substantial share of its electricity from renewable sources, hydrocarbons remain significant in its broader energy mix. High Asian LNG prices, fueled by Persian Gulf disruptions and QatarEnergy's extended force majeure at Ras Laffan, could challenge the project's affordability. New LNG capacity coming online—particularly in the United States—is intensifying competition among exporters for customers.

President Donald Trump threatened to hold Iran financially responsible and impose major military punishment if Yemen’s Houthis again attack ships, cargo, or related infrastructure. The warning followed Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers and a declared blockade targeting tankers linked to Saudi Arabia, prompting vessels to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, although two Chinese tankers reportedly passed through. Saudi Arabia has been using the Yanbu port as an alternative export route, shipping 4–5 million barrels of oil daily. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that regional infrastructure and oil sales would remain insecure if Iran’s security was not guaranteed and U.S. forces remained involved in the strait.

OPEC+ is expected to approve a further 188,000-barrel-per-day increase in the September production target for seven key producers, continuing the rollback of voluntary cuts. However, actual output has fallen sharply since the Iran war because disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping, Iraqi exports, Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, and Russian refineries have limited production and exports. The higher quotas therefore signal an intention to restore supply when transport routes become viable, rather than an immediate increase in physical oil flows.

Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly two months after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers and threats to blockade Saudi exports intensified concerns over Red Sea shipping. The rally, which has lifted Brent about 20% in two weeks, is being reinforced by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, reduced Kazakh and Russian supply, and suspended Iraqi crude loadings by Indian refiners. Strategic reserve drawdowns and falling commercial inventories are further tightening the physical market, raising the risk that simultaneous threats to the Red Sea and Hormuz will prolong global oil-supply disruptions.

New pipeline capacity is beginning to ease severe natural gas takeaway constraints in the Permian Basin, where Waha prices averaged negative $2.19 per MMBtu during the first half of 2026 and reached a record low of negative $7.95. The Gulf Coast Express expansion and Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline have helped push Waha prices back above zero, although Hugh Brinson will not reach full capacity until March 2027. Producers expect current bottlenecks to persist into 2027, while additional drilling driven by elevated oil prices could generate more associated gas and create renewed congestion. U.S. pipeline developers plan to add 44.9 Bcf/d of capacity in 2026 and 2027, with most of the additions originating in Texas.

Aliko Dangote has proposed a $17 billion, 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Kenya’s Lamu Island to supply Kenya and neighboring East African countries, whose refined-fuel demand is currently met almost entirely through imports. The project would leverage Lamu’s deep-water harbor, potentially create more than 60,000 jobs, process regional crude, and export surplus fuels through the African Continental Free Trade Area. Its capacity would exceed current East African demand, raising concerns about market dominance and the need for anti-dumping protections and tax incentives. Environmental groups and local communities oppose the plan because of potential damage to Lamu’s UNESCO-listed marine ecosystem, carbon-emissions risks, and the possibility of the refinery becoming a stranded asset during the energy transition. Lawyers are also calling for comprehensive environmental reviews and transparent public consultation before construction proceeds.

Metals markets are being pulled between structural supply deficits and AI-driven infrastructure demand on one side, and high energy costs, inflation fears, tighter monetary policy, and tariff uncertainty on the other. Copper has the strongest outlook, supported by constrained supply, resilient Chinese demand, grid expansion, renewable-energy investment, and data-center power needs. Aluminum prices have fallen sharply, although the market may have overreacted because idled Middle Eastern capacity is unlikely to return immediately. Platinum is expected to be more resilient than other platinum-group metals, while palladium faces weaker auto demand, rising inventories, and lower price forecasts. Rhodium is projected to remain modestly undersupplied in 2026 before moving close to balance in 2027.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels for the week ending July 17, remaining 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels and middle distillate inventories by 1.4 million barrels, while production of both products also grew. Total products supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down 1% year over year, although distillate demand rose 2.2%. Brent and WTI prices were higher as an agreement between Iran and the United States to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by an estimated 2.603 million barrels in the week ending July 17, reversing the previous week's decline. Despite commercial inventories falling by more than 57 million barrels over thirteen weeks, total year-to-date crude stocks are down only about 7 million barrels because of continued Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns. The SPR lost another 5.1 million barrels, leaving 316.5 million barrels—its lowest level in more than 43 years and well below its maximum capacity. U.S. oil production edged up to 13.861 million barrels per day, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.379 million barrels, distillates rose by 1.759 million barrels, and Cushing crude stocks declined by 737,000 barrels. Brent and WTI prices were higher amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and continuing shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Indian Oil Corporation and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals have suspended Iraqi crude loadings after tanker attacks made transiting the Strait of Hormuz too dangerous and expensive. India relies on imports for more than 85% of its oil consumption, with Iraq historically among its largest suppliers under contracts requiring Indian refiners to arrange shipping. India is increasingly turning to Russian crude, while UAE and Saudi supplies remain more resilient because some exports can bypass Hormuz through pipelines. The disruption has not yet created an Indian crude shortage, but could leave Iraqi oil stranded if buyers cannot safely transport it.

The United States says Chinese purchases of Iranian crude have fallen by about 40% after Washington expanded sanctions on independent Chinese “teapot” refiners, increasing financial pressure on Tehran. China’s broader crude imports also declined as high prices and Strait of Hormuz disruptions prompted Beijing to rely on stockpiled oil, helping limit global price increases despite major Middle Eastern supply losses. Analysts expect Chinese demand to recover as inventories decline; the International Energy Agency estimates China used about 41 million barrels from storage in June. Beijing has also begun easing some fuel-export restrictions, although gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel exports remain below last year’s levels.

U.S. oil and gas drilling activity increased, with the total rig count reaching 588, including 452 active oil rigs. Oil production also edged up to 13.861 million barrels per day, 486,000 barrels per day above the year-earlier level. Permian Basin rigs rose by three, while Eagle Ford activity was unchanged. Frac crews declined by five to 200. Brent and WTI prices gained roughly 4% amid stronger oil-market conditions.

Chevron is preparing to sign nonbinding memoranda with Iraq covering the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield and the Nassiriya project, advancing negotiations for major new upstream investments. The company is also studying export pipelines that could connect Iraqi production to the Mediterranean through Syria or other overland routes, reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq wants U.S. investment and a backup for its vulnerable Gulf export system, while Washington supports reviving the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline and involving American companies.

India is emerging as a swing supplier of refined fuels, increasing exports of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline to markets experiencing shortages. Its flexible crude-import network and expanding refining capacity allow it to redirect cargoes toward the highest-paying destinations as Russian refinery outages, Middle Eastern conflicts, and tight European inventories disrupt supply. India is expected to export about 1.4 million barrels per day of refined products in July, while its refining capacity is projected to grow substantially by 2030. New Delhi is balancing the opportunity to profit from global shortages with domestic energy security by raising export duties on diesel and jet fuel and lowering them on gasoline.

Ukrainian drone strikes have hit at least 24 of Russia’s 34 large refineries, reducing Russian crude processing to its lowest level since 2005. Repeated damage has cut gasoline and diesel availability, pushed Moscow to ban gasoline, jet-fuel and diesel exports, and forced Russia to import fuel from countries including India and Belarus. Domestic shortages, long queues and restricted retail sales have spread across Russian regions. Russia’s withdrawal from export markets is tightening global diesel supplies, lifting European refining margins and U.S. diesel futures while forcing buyers in Europe, Turkey, Brazil, North Africa and Central Asia to seek replacement cargoes from the United States, India and the Middle East.

The United States launched another wave of strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile facilities and military sites near the Persian Gulf, while Iran threatened to broaden attacks on energy-export routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. Tanker operators are increasingly avoiding U.S.-guided Strait of Hormuz transits because of crew-safety concerns. Despite the escalation and new U.S. sanctions on an alleged Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps procurement network, Brent crude fell slightly because physical oil exports have not yet suffered a major renewed disruption. Traders are prioritizing actual supply losses over military headlines.

U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 409.7 million barrels in the week ending July 10, leaving stocks 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels, while middle-distillate stocks rose by 4.6 million barrels but remained 11% below the five-year average. Four-week average total products supplied increased 0.3% year over year, although distillate demand fell 2.1%. Brent and WTI prices slipped despite escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with Brent still about $7 per barrel higher than a week earlier.

API estimates that U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 564,000 barrels in the week ending July 10, while gasoline inventories declined by 1.664 million barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve lost another 2.99 million barrels, bringing stocks to 316.5 million barrels, the lowest level in more than 43 years and well below maximum capacity. U.S. oil production rose to 13.86 million barrels per day, while distillate and Cushing crude inventories increased. Brent and WTI prices also moved higher amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun pricing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel against the U.S. dollar after failing to secure enough Nigerian crude through the naira-for-crude program. The 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery requires 13–15 crude cargoes monthly, but state-owned NNPC supplied only seven in May, forcing Dangote to buy the balance internationally in dollars. The shift makes exchange-rate movements more likely to affect Nigerian wholesale fuel prices, underscoring the contradiction of a country that exports more than one million barrels of crude daily yet cannot fully supply its largest refinery.

The rapid expansion of AI data centers is creating a severe electricity bottleneck, with utilities facing long waits for grid connections, transmission upgrades, transformers, and generation capacity. The article argues that power access—not chips or software—will be the defining constraint on AI infrastructure and highlights Bitzero Holdings as a company that secured low-cost electricity, land, permits, connectivity, and grid access in Norway, Finland, and North Dakota before the current AI boom. Bitzero claims more than one gigawatt of potential capacity, including a planned Finnish development and a proposed 15-year, $2.6 billion lease with OneQode Networks for 110 megawatts at its Namsskogan campus. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, OpenAI, and other technology companies are described as pursuing nuclear power, dedicated generation, and long-term energy arrangements. The piece is strongly promotional toward Bitzero and related AI infrastructure investments; OilPrice.com discloses that its owner holds Bitzero shares or options and may trade them, creating a significant conflict of interest.

Gail Tverberg argues that an Iranian supply disruption could push oil prices below $40 per barrel rather than trigger a sustained price spike. She contends that depleted oil reserves, damaged infrastructure, transport lags, reduced fuel demand, government restrictions, and a weak global economy would turn physical shortages into recession, lower consumption, and falling benchmark prices. The resulting effects could include gasoline shortages, broken supply chains, reduced air travel, unavailable goods and medicines, and deeper economic contraction. Tverberg also argues that the United States lacks the ammunition, nearby bases, and mineral supply chains needed for a prolonged renewed war with Iran, while disruptions involving Russia, Ukraine, Qatar, and Middle Eastern sulfur exports could compound the crisis. She expects governments to ration or restrict fuel use and calls for shorter, more regional supply lines as a way to manage the energy shortfall.

The disruption of more than one billion barrels of oil supply during the Middle East conflict was partly offset by China drawing on its large strategic crude stockpile and reducing imports. The IEA must replenish the 400 million barrels released during the crisis, while the United States, China, India and other major importers are expected to rebuild or expand their reserves. This synchronized stockpile buying could create a significant new source of oil demand and push crude prices higher once the conflict subsides, even as governments continue investing in renewable energy. The IEA also expects global oil demand to rebound by 2 million barrels per day in 2027 after a decline this year.

Donald Trump said Iran requested a meeting in Doha on Tuesday, presenting the announcement as a potential diplomatic opening after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials disputed that technical talks were scheduled, although sources indicated that implementation discussions could occur in the coming days. Shipping through the strait remains sharply below normal after attacks on vessels, while Iran has threatened to halt negotiations and warned that outside interference could delay reopening the waterway. The conflicting statements underscore uncertainty over both diplomacy and commercial traffic through a crucial energy corridor.