Mariana Schreiber

Brazil's Prosecutor-General's Office has asked the Supreme Federal Court to transfer two of three confidential investigations into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, to federal trial court because investigators allegedly found no evidence involving officials with special jurisdiction. The cases concern suspected influence to help lobbyist Antônio Carlos Camilo Antunes obtain access to Health Ministry officials and to facilitate contracts with Dataprev. Lulinha's defense denies the allegations and says the investigations should be dismissed, while Roberta Luchsinger also rejects accusations. Legal scholars describe the request as unusual, noting that the STF has recently retained cases involving people without privileged jurisdiction. Justice André Mendonça is expected to decide whether to reject the request, with a possible appeal to the court's Second Panel.

Flávio Bolsonaro chose Alagoas congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate after Progressives and Republicans declined to formally support his presidential bid. Analysts say Gaspar’s role in the INSS corruption inquiry and his calls for the indictment of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva could give the campaign a prominent anti-corruption spokesman and a way to attack President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, Gaspar faces a preliminary Federal Police investigation following allegations that he raped a 13-year-old girl and attempted to suppress the case; he denies the accusation, and no evidence has been publicly disclosed. His move to the presidential ticket also improves Arthur Lira’s prospects in the Alagoas Senate race. Analysts question whether Flávio can credibly campaign on corruption given allegations involving his own political career and recent dealings with Banco Master.

Supreme Federal Court Justice Flávio Dino authorized a third investigation into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, following two investigations authorized by Justice André Mendonça the previous week. The inquiries examine alleged illicit dealings involving federal institutions, possible illegal leaks of confidential data, and suspected influence peddling linked to INSS lobbyist Antônio Carlos Camilo Antunes and Dataprev contracts. Lulinha’s defense denies any wrongdoing, rejects alleged payments and accuses parts of the Federal Police of selective leaks and political motives. The article traces earlier investigations into Lulinha’s Gamecorp business dealings with Telemar/Oi, including cases later archived, and details allegations and disputed evidence presented by the INSS parliamentary commission. It also examines how accusations against Lula’s son have become a political vulnerability for the president, while analysts caution that the impact on Lula’s 2026 reelection prospects is not automatic.

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court will assess whether Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign violated electoral rules by showing and distributing an AI-generated video of Jair Bolsonaro at the Liberal Party convention. The avatar disclosed that it was artificial, criticized Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment, and endorsed Flávio, while Jair Bolsonaro’s defense denied authorizing the specific recording. A PT-led coalition argues that the video is a prohibited deepfake and constitutes early campaigning; Flávio’s campaign says the disclosure, convention setting, and lack of an explicit vote request make it lawful. Legal experts disagree, but the most likely consequences discussed are removal of the video, a ban on further use, and a fine of R$5,000 to R$25,000 rather than cancellation of the candidacy. TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques, the case’s rapporteur, has expressed a comparatively flexible view of campaign AI.

Internal conflicts within the Bolsonaro camp, including a public dispute between Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro, complicate efforts to elect a Senate majority aligned with confrontational positions toward the Supreme Court. Strategic divisions emerge in multiple states as bolsonaristas and lulistas prepare for a high‑stakes 2026 Senate race, with both sides seeking to consolidate strong tickets amid shifting regional dynamics. Analysts note that right‑leaning candidates currently hold an advantage due to mobilization around anti‑STF sentiment, while the left focuses on limiting vote dispersion to secure key seats. The outcome is expected to significantly influence national governance and the balance of power with the judiciary after 2027.