Marina Rossi

Brazil's 2026 presidential campaign opened with major public rallies by incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in São Bernardo do Campo and Flávio Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro. Lula invoked his labor-union roots, the history of the Workers' Party, social issues and economic and security concerns, while Flávio emphasized his father Jair Bolsonaro's legacy and promised changes in the economy, public security, education and gender policy. Polling cited by BBC News Brasil puts Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio in a potential runoff, 46% to 43%. Other candidates, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and Augusto Cury, also held campaign events across Brazil.

Brazil’s Workers’ Party formally nominated President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for reelection, his seventh and likely final presidential race, with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin also seeking another term. Lula’s convention speech emphasized gender-based violence, education, older people, defense, artificial intelligence, energy transition and social issues, while portraying the campaign as not yet fully underway. The election is expected to be highly competitive against Flávio Bolsonaro, with polls showing Lula holding a smaller advantage than in comparable stages of his previous campaigns. The race is also being shaped by US tariffs on Brazil, tensions with Argentina following Javier Milei’s remarks about Brazil’s Supreme Court, and investigations into Lula’s son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva over alleged influence peddling and corruption.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his 2026 presidential candidacy at an event in São Paulo, with Javier Milei as the main in-person ally and video messages from Jair Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro and other family members. Flávio promised that his imprisoned father would return to the Planalto Palace in 2027 and criticized Brazil’s judiciary, while Milei attacked Alexandre de Moraes, Lula and social policies. The campaign faces tensions with Michelle, a lack of confirmed support from major Centrão parties, difficulty choosing a running mate and renewed scrutiny over alleged financial links to Banco Master and Daniel Vorcaro, which Flávio denies. Despite these obstacles, BBC’s polling aggregate shows him close behind Lula in a hypothetical second round.

Javier Milei attended the Liberal Party convention that formally launched Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 presidential candidacy, speaking in support of a broader right-wing shift in Latin America and attacking Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Analysts say Milei’s presence strengthens Flávio’s ideological identity and energizes his core right-wing supporters, but is unlikely to win over centrist voters. The visit is also part of Milei’s effort to establish himself as a regional intellectual and political leader through appearances alongside conservative and radical-right figures. That strategy comes as his domestic popularity has fallen amid corruption allegations, economic difficulties, declining real incomes and controversy involving members of his government. Flávio remains the leading challenger to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in polling, but his campaign lacks a defined coalition or running mate and faces disputes, investigations and limited support from centrist parties.

Two newly released children's books by Esther Duflo and Emicida introduce themes of global poverty, inequality, and collective problem‑solving through fictional stories aimed at readers aged nine and up. The works emphasize empathy, debunk stereotypes about poor communities, and encourage realistic perspectives on work and economic opportunity. Duflo highlights lessons from her research on poverty reduction, while illustrations by Cheyenne Olivier and commentary by Emicida guide young readers in understanding complex social issues.

Federal Police launched Operation Exchange targeting a money-laundering scheme involving more than R$10 billion, centering on fugitive Victor Shimada and Stella Stefanie, both recently sanctioned by the US government for alleged links to the PCC. Shimada had previously been convicted in Brazil for unrelated financial crimes, including involvement in the Corinthians–VaideBet sponsorship scandal. The US Treasury claims he acted as a key intermediary between PCC operators in Florida and international drug traffickers, laundering over US$30 million through his companies, while Stella allegedly supported cash logistics. Brazilian investigators state they found no evidence connecting the pair to the PCC. US sanctions freeze assets under American jurisdiction and restrict transactions with US persons, with violations subject to civil or criminal penalties.

U.S. sanctions targeted Victor Shimada, Stella Nunes and companies linked to them for allegedly facilitating money laundering for the PCC, with accusations involving over US$30 million laundered through cryptocurrency between the U.S. and Brazil. Brazilian prosecutors and police say domestic investigations did not identify ties between the pair and the PCC, though Shimada had previously been charged in cases involving alleged fraud connected to Corinthians and the betting firm VaideBet. U.S. authorities detailed how Shimada’s businesses were used in laundering schemes and imposed asset freezes and transaction bans, while Brazil’s records showed rapid changes in his assets, including luxury vehicles. Recent U.S. moves reclassifying PCC and CV as terrorist organizations added further scrutiny amid differing assessments by Brazilian federal investigators.

Recent right‑wing victories across Latin America reflect growing public distrust in traditional politics, pressures from insecurity and transnational crime, and strong US influence in the region. Expert Regiane Bressan argues that the United States, under Donald Trump, is likely to increase pressure on Brazil’s upcoming election through tariffs, security classifications and positions on Big Tech regulation. China’s expanding presence and Europe’s renewed engagement intensify geopolitical competition, while regional governments display varying degrees of alignment with Washington. Concerns persist about authoritarian drift among outsider leaders, the destabilizing effects of US unpredictability and the broader impact of insecurity, migration and economic crises on electoral outcomes in the region.