Mark Poynting

The UK Met Office warns that the developing El Niño may be the strongest in recent records, with sea-surface temperature anomalies potentially exceeding 3°C and possibly reaching 4°C. The event is expected to intensify through October and November and remain active into early 2027. Its effects could include reduced monsoon rainfall in South Asia, drought and wildfires in Australia and the Amazon, flooding in Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States, and contrasting rainfall impacts across Brazil. Combined with human-caused climate change, the phenomenon is considered very likely to make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded and could worsen food insecurity for tens of millions of vulnerable people.

The UK Met Office warns that a developing El Niño in the Pacific could become the strongest in living memory, with sea-surface temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above normal. The event is already associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall in South Asia and could increase risks of drought, wildfires, flooding, crop failures and food insecurity worldwide. In the UK, it may contribute to a wetter and stormier autumn and early winter. Although there is no clear evidence that climate change makes El Niño events more frequent or stronger, its impacts are expected to be more severe in a warmer world, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record.

Satellite imagery examined by BBC Verify shows the effects of successive 2026 heatwaves across western Europe, including record-low Danube levels, stranded vessels on the Rhine, rapid Alpine glacier retreat, extensive French wildfires and widespread vegetation stress. Western Europe recorded its hottest June-to-July period, while persistent high-pressure systems and long-term climate change intensified the heat. Experts warn that drought and low soil moisture are threatening river-dependent infrastructure, ecosystems, agriculture and food production, with some damage potentially irreversible even if rainfall returns.

Satellite imagery analyzed by BBC Verify shows the effects of successive summer heatwaves across western Europe, including lower river levels, retreating Alpine glaciers, wildfire scars and widespread vegetation stress. The Danube has reached unusually low levels, disrupting shipping and forcing some nuclear power stations to reduce or suspend operations, while the Rhône Glacier has retreated by at least 50m compared with the previous year. France has recorded its worst wildfire season, with more than 90,000 hectares burned, and vegetation indices show below-average conditions across much of France, the UK and western Germany. Experts attribute the immediate heat to persistent high-pressure systems but say climate change is making such extreme heat, drought and fires more likely and threatening agriculture and food production.

Hosepipe bans affecting more than eight million UK households have been introduced due to high water demand during successive heatwaves, despite wetter-than-normal winter conditions. Most of England remains in normal water status, though parts of East Anglia and southern regions face prolonged dry weather, while Scotland’s River Lossie has reached significant scarcity. River flows are low and groundwater levels vary, though reservoirs remain generally healthy. Experts warn that rising temperatures and soil evaporation linked to climate change could accelerate drought conditions. A government-backed plan includes new reservoirs and measures to reduce leaks and water use, with utilities in all UK nations working to secure future supplies.

Record-breaking heatwaves across the UK and Europe in May and June reflect long‑term global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists report that temperatures exceeded previous records by several degrees, with high humidity and warm nights intensifying impacts. Multiple European countries set new national June highs, while rapidly warming seas and shifting atmospheric patterns further amplify heat extremes. Experts warn that increasingly severe heatwaves will continue until global emissions reach net zero.

Record-breaking heatwaves across the UK and Europe in May and June underscore the accelerating effects of human-driven climate change. Scientists report shattered temperature records, unusually warm nights, and widespread heat across the continent, driven by rising greenhouse gas emissions and shifting atmospheric patterns. Europe’s rapid warming, intensified by reduced snow and ice and fewer reflective particles in the air, is contributing to more frequent and extreme heat events. Experts warn that heatwaves will continue to intensify until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero.