Michael Crick

Nigel Farage’s victory in the Clacton by-election was highly predictable because the constituency is unusually supportive of Brexit, older and overwhelmingly white, and had long been a stronghold for UKIP and other anti-EU campaigns. Michael Crick argues that Farage damaged the significance of the result by calling a costly by-election and then refusing to attend the victory declaration, citing security threats that Essex Police denied having issued. His claim that he wanted to avoid being “demeaned and humiliated” by satirist Count Binface is presented as evidence of a more defensive, angry and grievance-focused political style. The result was also inflated by the absence of major-party candidates and the failure of rival nationalist parties to contest it. Farage’s parliamentary standards investigation is expected to resume and could potentially lead to another, more competitive by-election, although he would likely retain the seat.

Nigel Farage remains central to Reform UK’s electoral appeal, but his persistently negative personal ratings, allegations concerning party finances, and investigations into possible breaches of political-donation law threaten the party’s credibility. Despite these problems, Reform has maintained a strong polling base and remains the leading force on the British right. A potential rapprochement with former Reform MP Rupert Lowe could expand that base, although many Lowe supporters dislike Farage. The party’s future therefore depends on whether Farage and his allies withstand investigations, provide greater financial transparency, and recover the political energy that drove Reform’s 2024 breakthrough.

Nigel Farage and Andy Burnham are identified as likely central figures in Britain’s next major political contest. Despite Burnham’s decisive by-election victory and extensive media attention, Labour has failed to overtake Reform in the polls, reflecting persistent skepticism about Burnham’s ability to improve living standards, the economy, public services and immigration. Burnham would also face the slow delivery of his policy programme, economic constraints and difficult international relationships. Farage is portrayed as the more experienced and aggressive political operator, with Reform’s media and organizational resources allowing it to exploit Labour’s future failures. To expand beyond its core support, however, Farage is advised to abandon his increasingly irritable public persona and build a stronger leadership and organizational team.

Nigel Farage is accused of adopting an increasingly aggressive and confrontational media strategy modeled on Donald Trump. The commentary focuses on his threats toward a Sky News reporter over questions about gifts from convicted fraudster George Cottrell and on earlier disputes involving The Times and coverage of his family. Farage's more likeable, self-deprecating public image, reinforced by his appearance on I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here!, is contrasted with a darker persona described as threatening and dishonest. The argument is that this approach may appeal to some Reform UK supporters but will alienate the wavering voters the party needs to win power.

Michael Crick argues that Andy Burnham is set to become one of the least scrutinized UK prime ministers in modern times after avoiding journalists’ questions following his leadership victory and Manchester speech. The lack of scrutiny, he says, risks allowing uncosted spending promises and incoherent policies to go unchallenged, including major council-housebuilding plans and procurement based on social value. Burnham has also left major questions unanswered on fiscal rules, foreign policy, Ukraine, Europe, Israel and Palestine, Trump and defence spending. Crick warns that inadequate preparation and policy developed on the hoof could make Burnham’s premiership even more chaotic than Keir Starmer’s, while acknowledging that he agrees with much of Burnham’s overall direction.

Nigel Farage faced unusually hostile questioning over the unexplained £5 million gift he received from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne. The donation is under investigation by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner and has raised concerns that Reform UK's policies may be influenced by wealthy backers, particularly after the party adopted positions favorable to the crypto industry. Farage's irritated responses have amplified the controversy and may damage his credibility among Reform's less affluent core supporters. The article argues that Reform is now vulnerable to pressure from Labour under Andy Burnham, the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch and the newly successful Restore movement led by Rupert Lowe. YouGov polling showing Farage well behind Burnham and Badenoch as a preferred prime minister, together with the supplementary voting system in the upcoming Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, suggests mounting electoral challenges for Farage and his party.

Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election is presented as a major setback for Nigel Farage and Reform UK, whose vote rose only modestly despite strong polling and recent local-election success. The defeat is attributed to Farage's poor candidate selection, the weak performance of Rob Kenyon, Farage's avoidance of scrutiny and the factional split that produced Rupert Lowe's Restore candidacy. Burnham gains substantial momentum in his challenge to Keir Starmer, although his unclear policy positions and focus on reaching Downing Street could ultimately undermine him in the same way they have undermined Starmer.

The Makerfield by-election is portrayed as a pivotal test of whether Labour still represents traditional working-class communities or whether Reform UK has captured their concerns. An Andy Burnham victory would strengthen his challenge to Keir Starmer, boost Labour and potentially revive its standing in the polls. A Reform victory, despite its controversial candidate Rob Kenyon, would remove Burnham as an immediate leadership threat and give Nigel Farage significant momentum toward Downing Street, potentially accelerating the decline of Labour and the Conservatives.

Peter Murrell’s guilty plea to embezzling more than £400,000 from the SNP has intensified questions about what Nicola Sturgeon knew and about the party’s failure to scrutinise its finances. The plea may reduce legal costs but also prevents witnesses and evidence from emerging in a full trial. Joanna Cherry is calling for a public inquiry into SNP governance, while the wider argument is that corruption and weak internal controls affect political parties across the UK, including Reform, the Greens, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Stronger party governance is presented as essential to restoring public trust and ensuring parties can govern the country with integrity.

Michael Crick argues that Nigel Farage is unlikely to become prime minister after the next UK general election despite Reform UK’s strong local-election performance. He contends that national polling shows a larger combined vote for left-of-centre parties, while first-past-the-post and increasingly sophisticated tactical voting could prevent Reform from winning enough constituencies. Examples from recent by-elections and Farage’s 2015 defeat in South Thanet illustrate how voters from rival parties may unite to block Reform candidates.

Reform UK’s strong performance in local elections, including winning control of councils and gaining more than 1,000 councillors, suggests Nigel Farage could become prime minister if its current national polling were replicated at a general election. However, scandals involving Farage’s undeclared £5 million donation, allegations about his past conduct, the conviction of former ally Nathan Gill, and Reform’s poor record in councils have not substantially damaged its core support. The author argues Farage is a “Teflon” politician whose supporters tolerate flaws because they see him as authentic and capable of delivering change. Nevertheless, economic doubts, the difficulty of managing relations with Europe amid threats from Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and increased tactical voting are expected to prevent Reform from winning a Commons majority at the next general election.

King Charles’s upcoming visit to the United States is presented as a delicate opportunity to repair strained UK-US relations. Michael Crick argues that Charles has four key advantages over Donald Trump: Trump’s affection for Britain and Scotland, his admiration for the late Queen, his need for a successful visit amid weak polling, and Charles’s ability to invoke Winston Churchill and the historic Atlantic alliance. Charles is urged to use tact and royal charm to challenge Trump’s threats toward Canada, attacks on the Pope, hostility toward allies and broader damage to the special relationship, while avoiding sensitive issues involving Jeffrey Epstein, Peter Mandelson and Andrew. The visit could either moderate Trump’s conduct or further worsen relations between Britain and the United States.

Michael Crick argues that Keir Starmer should resign after expected poor local, Scottish and Welsh election results, saying failures over Peter Mandelson’s vetting and delays to a long-term defence-spending plan demonstrate weak leadership. Although Crick previously supported retaining Starmer for reasons of international stability and praised his backing for Ukraine, he now endorses Wes Streeting as a more communicative, decisive and courageous successor. Streeting’s support for higher defence spending and welfare cuts is presented as evidence of the resolve Labour needs to restore its standing with voters.

Michael Crick argues that Angela Rayner would be an unsuitable successor to Keir Starmer, despite her resilience, working-class background, communication skills and popularity among Labour activists. He highlights controversies over stamp duty, capital gains tax and gifts from donor Lord Alli as evidence of poor judgement, and cites her use of insulting language as evidence that she lacks the gravitas required for No 10. The column also argues that Rayner has little experience in the economy, foreign affairs and defence at a time of heightened international danger and domestic weakness, making her, in Crick's view, a novice unsuited to leading the country.

Reform UK suffered a major setback in the Gorton and Denton by-election, finishing more than 4,000 votes behind the Greens. Michael Crick attributes the defeat to Matt Goodwin’s poor local fit, Reform’s weak campaign, Nigel Farage’s lack of engagement and the party’s controversial stance on ethnicity. The result follows underwhelming performances in other recent by-elections and suggests that voters opposed to Reform are learning to coordinate behind the strongest progressive candidate. However, Reform remains dominant in national polling and could recover in upcoming local, Scottish and Welsh elections. Crick argues that Farage should respond by showing more humility, improving candidate selection, rejecting Conservative defectors and reducing his support for Donald Trump.

Michael Crick argues that Nigel Farage could realistically rejoin the Conservative Party after the next general election and potentially seek its leadership. Farage’s popularity among Conservative activists, Rishi Sunak’s openness to his membership and his strong television presence are identified as factors supporting a comeback. His £1.5 million appearance on ITV’s I’m a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here! could further soften his public image, although editing and opposition from Conservative MPs pose risks. Crick estimates Farage’s chance of eventually becoming Conservative leader at roughly one in five.