Michael Kern

More than 20,000 tons of copper were placed on warrant in LME warehouses, sharply reducing the cash-to-three-month backwardation to $248 per ton from $545. The deliveries, attributed largely to Trafigura and other traders, eased a week-long squeeze even though uncertainty remains over potential U.S. refined-copper tariffs. Copper continues to flow into the United States, while Chilean production cuts, an Indonesian smelter outage and Congo’s concentrate-export restrictions point to persistent supply constraints. Three-month copper futures fell 1.2% to $13,986.50 per ton, Chinese buying has weakened, and rising Shanghai inventories may indicate that the market’s recent tightness was partly driven by short covering rather than an outright lack of metal.

A potentially record-strength El Niño is developing while global energy markets remain constrained by war-related supply disruptions. Although traders expect milder winter conditions to reduce gas demand, Rystad Energy estimates that Europe will still need roughly 15 million additional tonnes of LNG through June 2027. The greater risk is on the supply side: drought could reduce hydropower and solar output, impair nuclear-reactor cooling, and limit Panama Canal shipping capacity. Romania has already shut down a Cernavoda reactor because of low Danube water levels, while India may face a major generation shortfall requiring substantially more coal. El Niño could also reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, benefiting Gulf energy infrastructure, but storms that do form may be concentrated near the Gulf Coast. JPMorgan estimates that the combined effects of El Niño and elevated energy prices could slow global disinflation by about 0.3 percentage points next year.

Saudi Aramco plans to provide three European refiners with their full contractual crude allocations for September, using supplies from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir port, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port or ship-to-ship transfers near Malta. The arrangements offer European buyers greater supply certainty as disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea increase shipping risks. Aramco has resumed some Persian Gulf loadings but is diverting more crude through Egypt, while some Asian buyers are resisting Yanbu deliveries because of Houthi-related security concerns and the added cost and transit time of the Egyptian route.

U.S. refined-copper imports exceeded 200,000 tonnes in July, taking combined domestic inventories above 1 million tonnes as traders anticipated proposed tariffs of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028. At the same time, LME stocks fell for 42 consecutive sessions to a five-year low, with cash copper trading at a substantial premium to three-month contracts and prices approaching $14,500 per tonne. Supply disruptions and delays in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile and Indonesia are worsening the shortage outside the United States. A tariff confirmation could trigger another wave of U.S. buying, while a delay or reduction could release the accumulated metal and undermine prices.

Norway’s $2.39 trillion Government Pension Fund Global earned a record $185 billion in the first half of 2026, with its portfolio returning 9.4% in Norwegian kroner. Strong gains in Asian technology stocks helped drive the result, while equity investments returned 13.0%. Equities represented 72.1% of the fund at midyear, with Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft among its largest holdings. The fund also opposed a U.S. proposal to eliminate existing climate-related risk and disclosure requirements.

The International Energy Agency forecasts a 1.8-million-barrel-per-day global oil deficit in the third quarter of 2026, after cutting its annual supply outlook as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and other disruptions constrain Middle East and global exports. Global supply is expected to fall 4.3 million barrels per day for the year, while consumption is projected to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day because of high prices and limited refined fuels. Refinery outages, Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities and falling inventories are intensifying the squeeze. The IEA expects a large supply surplus in 2027 if Middle East hostilities ease, but that projection depends on the recovery of disrupted flows.

IEA data indicates a two-speed recovery in global fuel prices: gasoline prices have eased from their May peak, while diesel prices remain elevated and rose in July. Average diesel prices across tracked economies were about 14% above February levels, with Germany experiencing sharp increases after a temporary fuel-tax discount expired. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, reduced Russian processing and renewed uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz have tightened distillate supplies and kept markets volatile. Crude prices have fallen from nearly $120 per barrel, but further declines depend heavily on developments in the Gulf rather than solely on OPEC+ output.

Heat waves and related productivity losses, weaker agricultural output and energy disruptions could reduce the European Union’s 2026 GDP by as much as 1%, according to Triodos. Labor productivity losses are estimated to cut GDP by about 0.6%, while agricultural output could decline 3% to 7%. The European Commission has already lowered its EU growth forecast to 1.1% and raised its inflation projection to 3.1% following the energy shock linked to the Iran war. France is expected to be the hardest-hit major economy, with GDP potentially falling 1.4% and the broader economy contracting by up to 0.6%. Low river levels have also forced cuts to French nuclear generation, while heat and drought are reducing refinery efficiency and nuclear and hydropower output across Europe.

European benchmark natural-gas prices fell 4% after Donald Trump said he had canceled a planned attack on Iranian energy sites and that U.S.-Iran talks would begin during the week. The prospect of renewed diplomacy eased concerns about a broader LNG supply disruption, although prices recovered some ground as a heatwave increased European electricity demand. Drought and exceptionally low Danube water levels have also forced Hungary and Romania to reduce nuclear generation, including a temporary shutdown at Hungary’s Paks plant. Europe faces additional winter-supply risks because gas storage is near a 15-year low and Asian buyers are outbidding it for spot LNG cargoes.

Coal accounted for 49.7% of China's electricity generation in the first half of 2026, falling below 50% for the first time on record. Renewable generation rose about 9% year over year and represented 41.2% of total output, while wind and solar together supplied nearly 25%. Despite the milestone, China continues expanding and relying on coal as a backup for grid reliability and industrial demand, with its energy plan positioning coal as a bottom-line guarantee while renewables become the mainstay of the power mix.

The EU could reduce natural-gas demand by roughly a quarter by 2030 if it meets targets for installing heat pumps and expanding solar and wind capacity, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. The projected savings would be about twice the volume of LNG the bloc could import from Qatar by then. Heat pumps and renewable generation already reduced EU gas demand by an estimated 8.8 billion cubic meters in 2024. However, the EU remains off track for its 42.5% renewable-energy target, while low gas-storage levels and elevated LNG competition linked to conflict in the Middle East are increasing energy-security risks.

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading as a fourth consecutive night passed without attacks between Iran and the United States, lowering the geopolitical risk premium. WTI and Brent declined despite continued shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and concerns over Houthi attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Weakening demand, including broad inventory builds reported by the EIA, is also pressuring prices, with markets awaiting API inventory data for confirmation. Further Middle East escalation could drive prices higher, while diplomatic progress would likely push them lower.

Kazakhstan resumed crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium after a week-long suspension caused by drone attacks near the Black Sea marine terminal at Novorossiysk. Two tankers began loading oil from the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil project, while producers restarted deliveries into the pipeline, subject to security assessments. The disruption prompted Kazakhstan to reduce production, which fell to about 1 million barrels per day from a June average of 2.16 million bpd. The 1,500-kilometer CPC route carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, making the restart important for restoring supply to global markets, although the pace of production normalization remains uncertain.

Chinese buyers are preparing to re-export the first U.S. LNG cargo delivered to China in more than a year rather than pay a 25% tariff to import it. The cargo, shipped from Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG terminal, was placed in bonded storage at Yangpu, and an empty tanker’s arrival suggests it may be loaded for re-export. The decision indicates China has sufficient alternative LNG supplies despite disruptions to Qatari and UAE exports caused by the Middle East war. China’s LNG imports rose 8.3% year over year to 5.68 million tons in June, while state importers are reportedly seeking longer-term supplies from exporters that do not depend on the Strait of Hormuz.

TotalEnergies will appeal a Paris Judicial Court ruling that held it responsible for climate change and ordered it to align its business with climate goals under France’s duty of vigilance law. The company argues that global climate change falls outside the law’s scope and that firms should not be responsible for how customers use their energy products. The case will proceed before the Paris Court of Appeal. The article also notes that Shell is facing separate climate litigation in the Netherlands, although a 2024 appellate ruling overturned an earlier order requiring it to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

India’s Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. has instructed crude suppliers to avoid both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea in a spot tender for up to 1 million barrels scheduled for delivery from August 25 to September 6. The unusual restriction follows attacks by Houthi forces in the Red Sea and sharply reduced tanker traffic through both strategic waterways. MRPL reportedly plans to retain the routing requirement in future tenders if security conditions in West Asia do not improve, despite a temporary halt in U.S.-Iran strikes and a decline in Brent crude prices.

Russia’s fuel crisis is reportedly easing as several refineries resume operations, improving supplies at filling stations and for agricultural producers. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said conditions remain tense in parts of Siberia but characterized the crisis as temporary. The shortages, which have lasted more than two months during peak demand, were intensified by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, fuel routes and vessels. Attacks have also disrupted Black Sea export terminals, including the Sheskharis terminal and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium facility, forcing Kazakhstan to cut production and reportedly reducing output at Chevron’s Tengiz field.

Houthi threats and recent attacks on Saudi-linked tankers in the Red Sea have led at least one Saudi crude carrier, the supertanker Olympic Luck, to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and take the longer route through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and around Africa to reach Asia. The alternative route adds roughly a month to the voyage and increases costs. Tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has fallen to its lowest level in months, while Saudi crude exports continue through a combination of the Suez-Mediterranean route, the SUMED pipeline, and the Cape of Good Hope. Chinese-linked cargoes reportedly retain access under a Houthi carve-out.

Australia’s nationwide gasoline prices reached US$1.27, or A$1.82, per liter in the week ending July 26, their highest level since late March, while diesel prices also climbed. The increases followed Middle East hostilities, elevated international crude prices, the Hormuz crisis and a fire at one of Australia’s two refineries. Although Australia produces significant gas and LNG, it imports most transportation fuel, prompting the government to halve fuel excise temporarily and secure diesel and jet-fuel shipments from Brunei, South Korea and China. A recent diplomatic de-escalation pushed oil prices lower, but the durability of the improvement remains uncertain.

DCC Energy has accepted a takeover offer from a consortium led by KKR and Energy Capital Partners valuing the Irish energy distributor at approximately $7.7 billion, about $1 billion above KKR’s initial June proposal. Shareholders will receive $87.17 per share in cash, a $1.97 final dividend, and potentially an additional $1.67 per share if DCC sells its Nexora technology division for at least $800 million. The transaction would rank among Europe’s largest energy-sector deals of 2026, reflecting heightened investor interest in energy-distribution assets amid Europe’s exposure to oil and gas supply shocks.

Tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to a multi-month low, with only 11 commodity-carrying tankers transiting on Sunday, including seven oil tankers. The decline followed Houthi threats to blockade Saudi shipments and attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, prompting some Saudi and Western operators to reroute through the Suez Canal or turn back before entering the Red Sea. Several tankers carried Saudi, UAE or Russian crude to Asian markets, while vessels at Yanbu increasingly operated with their transponders switched off. Early signs of de-escalation had not yet produced a recovery in traffic through either Bab el-Mandeb or the Strait of Hormuz.

European benchmark natural gas prices fell 8.6% to $66.29 per megawatt-hour after the United States paused strikes on Iran and Tehran indicated it would stop retaliatory attacks. Markets are hoping de-escalation will enable the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and restore Qatari LNG shipments. Despite the decline, Europe remains vulnerable because gas storage is at its second-lowest seasonal level in 15 years, below the five-year average, while competition with Asia for LNG threatens winter refill targets.

Japan may enlist foreign banks, including JPMorgan and other U.S. lenders, to finance part of its $550 billion investment pledge under its trade agreement with the United States. About $33 billion is earmarked for natural gas projects, including a proposed 9.2-gigawatt power plant, while Japan-backed institutions and NEXI could provide financing and loan guarantees. The package also includes a Gulf deepwater oil port designed to handle 1 million barrels per day and potentially generate $20–30 billion in annual U.S. crude exports.

China’s crude oil imports are estimated to average 7.8 million barrels per day in July, up sharply from 6.2 million barrels per day in June, which was the country’s lowest import rate in more than a decade. Increased purchases of Russian crude and additional Middle Eastern tanker arrivals could support oil prices. The market remains highly sensitive to the U.S.-Iran conflict: a temporary halt in attacks has eased some pressure, but disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, including Houthi attacks on tankers, continue to threaten global energy flows. Tehran reportedly views the pause as tactical rather than a lasting peace initiative.

Oil prices fell more than 5% in early Asian trading after the United States and Iran paused attacks following two weeks of escalation that had pushed Brent above $100. Washington said the pause was intended to create space for diplomacy, while Iran indicated it would suspend operations as long as the U.S. does, following constructive talks involving Oman. Traders took profits as the immediate risk premium declined, but sustained price weakness is uncertain because tanker traffic and shipping confidence in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea remain impaired. Further market volatility is expected as traders react to developments from Washington and Tehran.

China’s tightening rare earth export controls are presented as accelerating a U.S. effort to rebuild a complete non-Chinese supply chain, from feedstock and separation to metallization, alloys and permanent magnets. REalloys is positioned as a leading beneficiary, having secured heavy rare earth supplies, raised about $100 million from institutional investors, received Defense Logistics Agency backing and been selected by the U.S. Army for processing operations on a military base. Partnerships with the Saskatchewan Research Council, Critical Metals Corp. and JS Link are intended to support commercial production in North America, including facilities in Saskatchewan and Ohio. The article argues that Pentagon restrictions on Chinese-origin magnets and rising demand from defense, aerospace, electric vehicles, robotics and AI infrastructure could shift the rare earth industry from raw-material extraction toward vertically integrated manufacturing, while disclosing that OilPrice.com’s owner holds REalloys shares and options.

The expected global oil glut has been overtaken by tightening physical markets after renewed conflict disrupted two key chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Houthi attacks have pushed tankers toward longer routes, while Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Kazakh exports through Novorossiysk and constrained Russian refined-fuel supplies. Record refining margins, depleted inventories and falling fuel consumption in Europe and China indicate severe market stress rather than abundant supply. Although IEA emergency stocks provide some cushion, the article argues that continued hostilities could drive oil prices higher, deepen fuel shortages and increase the likelihood of a global recession.

Governments and major energy companies have committed billions to carbon capture and storage as a means of reducing emissions from hard-to-abate industries, but evidence of underperformance and escalating costs is undermining the sector’s promise. An IEEFA review found that most of 13 operating projects captured less than their 90% design targets, while the Global CCS Institute reported only 50 operating facilities worldwide in 2024, capturing roughly one-thousandth of global emissions. CCS costs range from an estimated $20–$30 per megawatt-hour for U.S. gas plants to $170–$340 per tonne in Europe, often requiring substantial taxpayer support. Critics say the technology risks enabling continued fossil-fuel use and greenwashing, and argue that governments should prioritize permanent low-carbon alternatives while reserving CCS for limited applications.

Russia’s Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk has stopped loading crude tankers after drone attacks disrupted the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. Sheskharis had exported roughly 650,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year, while the CPC normally carries most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. The disruptions have already forced production cuts in Kazakhstan, including a reported sharp reduction at Chevron’s Tengiz field. Ukraine’s expanded attacks on Black Sea shipping and energy infrastructure, combined with Russia’s warnings that navigation in its Black Sea economic zone is unsafe, threaten to remove additional oil-export capacity. The outages come as Middle East and Red Sea conflicts, reduced inventories and tightening diesel supplies leave global oil markets with less ability to absorb further supply losses.

JPMorgan estimates an 81% chance that the current El Niño strengthens into a very strong or “super” event by year-end and a 97% chance that conditions persist into 2027. Combined with oil prices above $100 per barrel, tight diesel supplies, constrained refining capacity, higher fertilizer costs and disrupted shipping routes, the weather event could add roughly 0.3 percentage points to global headline inflation. Food inflation could rise by 1.3% to 1.5% at its peak, with emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and Colombia most exposed because food represents a larger share of household spending. Europe and the United States would also face higher imported costs through fuel, transport, fertilizer and commodity markets.

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports from Yanbu on the Red Sea fell 41% from a March peak of 4.07 million barrels per day to about 2.39 million bpd in June, according to Wood Mackenzie vessel-tracking and cargo data. The decline followed Saudi Arabia’s redirection of exports from Persian Gulf terminals through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu amid risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts said the shift replaced one strategic bottleneck with another, as the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea face threats from Iran-aligned Houthi forces. The Houthis have claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers, raising the prospect of further disruption to a major crude artery serving Asian markets.

Indian refiners are seeking crude from Angola and Venezuela after Middle Eastern term supplies became trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating conflict. BPCL is testing new crude grades, while HPCL reported receiving almost none of its Middle Eastern contract volumes and making purchasing decisions based on availability rather than optimization. India’s Russian imports remain near record highs, but Indian Oil and MRPL have suspended Iraqi loadings because sending tankers through Hormuz is considered too risky.

ADNOC has launched its seventh crude tender since early June, offering millions of barrels for loading between August and October from UAE ports inside and outside the Persian Gulf, as well as through ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah or Malaysia. The company has reportedly sold more than 74 million barrels through earlier tenders while adapting to risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes. ADNOC will reject discounted bids in the latest tender. UAE crude production rose to an estimated record 4.1 million barrels per day in June after the country left OPEC and increased output, while alternative export arrangements helped maintain shipments despite the partial blockade of Hormuz.

Pakistan’s Goods Transport Alliance has warned that it may call a nationwide strike at any time to protest soaring diesel costs and the government’s decision to revise gasoline and diesel prices daily. Alliance president Malik Shehzad Awan said frequent increases and what he called anti-transport policies were putting road-freight businesses at risk of closure. The government says daily pricing is more transparent and better reflects international oil markets. Meanwhile, Pakistani refiners are seeking crude cargoes from the United States, Nigeria, Singapore and Central Asia to reduce exposure to supply disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.

Only one oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on July 23, the lowest level since May 7, while no tanker entered the Persian Gulf. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed that the New Giant carried roughly 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude toward China. Despite Houthi attacks and blockade threats, Bab el-Mandeb traffic remained relatively strong, although some tankers diverted through the Suez Canal and around Africa, tripling delivery times to Asia. Saudi Aramco has begun offering crude loadings from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir port, while analysts warned that escalating tensions involving Iran, the Persian Gulf and the Houthis could place substantial Middle Eastern oil supplies at risk and push crude prices higher.

The Saudi crude tanker Merbabu, owned by a Greek company, transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with its AIS transponder switched off as Houthi threats against Saudi oil shipments intensified. The vessel later reappeared in the Arabian Sea, while other tankers continued using the strait, suggesting that Houthi targeting may depend on crew and ownership rather than cargo alone. Traffic remains active, although some vessels have turned back toward the Suez Canal amid heightened Red Sea security risks.

Chinese refiners have purchased all Russian ESPO crude cargoes scheduled to load at Kozmino in August, much earlier than usual, as attacks and conflict have disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The rush has narrowed ESPO’s discount to ICE Brent to about $1 per barrel from $3–$4 two weeks earlier. With the Hormuz route largely paralyzed and Houthi attacks threatening tankers near Bab el-Mandeb, China is securing Russian supplies that can reach its east coast in roughly a week.

The United States is making cooperation on small modular reactors a central element of its engagement with Southeast Asia as electricity demand rises. U.S. Ambassador to ASEAN Kevin Kim said Washington is in discussions with several regional governments, following a July 7 memorandum of understanding with Japan and South Korea to accelerate SMR deployment across the Indo-Pacific. The broader strategy also includes LNG, grid technologies and critical-mineral supply chains. Recent initiatives include a $1.5 billion investment platform for energy-security infrastructure in India and Southeast Asia, a $60 million Philippines energy-investment grant, $17 million for Mekong-region mineral supply chains and $5 million to develop power markets in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.

Major LNG exporters from the United States, Australia, Canada and Southeast Asia are seeking to supply Cambodia's planned 900-MW LNG-fueled power plant. Energy Minister Keo Rottanak described LNG as a diversification tool, although Cambodia already obtains much of its electricity from renewable sources and has a broader energy mix heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. High Asian LNG prices, driven by Persian Gulf conflict and QatarEnergy's extended force majeure at Ras Laffan, could make imports difficult in the near term. Rising U.S. LNG capacity is expected to intensify competition for new customers.

President Donald Trump threatened to hold Iran financially and militarily responsible for future damage caused by the Iran-aligned Houthis, following attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The attacks prompted vessels to reroute, while two Chinese tankers reportedly passed through the strait. The Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which relies on Yanbu to export roughly 4–5 million barrels of oil daily. Iran’s parliament speaker and U.S. chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that regional infrastructure and shipping would remain unsafe if Iran’s security was not ensured and U.S. forces remained in the strait.

Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbed above $90 as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb threatened global supply. Houthi attacks on tankers, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Ukraine-linked drone strikes that halted Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium flows are compounding the crisis. Analysts say Middle Eastern production remains 7–8 million barrels per day below pre-war levels while onshore, OECD and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories are unusually low. With U.S. gasoline prices again above $4 per gallon and midterm elections approaching, sustained price increases could increase pressure on the Trump administration to resume negotiations with Iran.

India plans to build five domestically developed small modular reactors by 2033 as part of a broader effort to expand installed nuclear capacity from about 8.78 GW to 22 GW by fiscal year 2031–32 and 100 GW by 2047. BARC is developing a 220-MW Bharat Small Modular Reactor, a 55-MW reactor and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor for hydrogen production. The expansion could require roughly 19.28 trillion Indian rupees, while the SHANTI Act has opened the nuclear sector to private investment. State-owned NTPC is expected to account for about 30% of new capacity and is seeking overseas uranium assets to secure future fuel supplies.

India’s refined petroleum exports are projected to reach as much as 1.55 million barrels per day in July, nearly double May’s level and potentially the second-highest in Kpler’s data series since 2017. Rising refining margins, tighter Asian fuel markets and the collapse of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire are encouraging Indian refiners to increase exports. The additional supply could ease pressure on Asian fuel markets, although renewed risks to Middle Eastern crude deliveries may delay refinery throughput increases across the region.

The Middle East war has weakened Qatar and the UAE’s longstanding leverage as LNG suppliers after shipping disruptions, infrastructure damage and delayed capacity expansions. LNG buyers in Europe and Asia, including China, are seeking lower Brent-linked prices, greater contract flexibility and alternative suppliers that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz. Rising insurance and freight costs are strengthening buyers’ negotiating position; some postwar Gulf contracts have already fallen from roughly 12.6%–12.7% of Brent to about 12.3%.

U.S. refinery utilization reached 96.2% for the week ending July 17, with Midwest and Rocky Mountain facilities operating at 100%. Record fuel exports and inventories below seasonal averages have tightened the market and left the United States more vulnerable to hurricanes or unplanned refinery outages. Diesel futures have risen 26% in July, while global gasoline and diesel refining margins have reached record highs amid the Iran war, Russia’s diesel export ban, and declining fuel inventories. Refiners in the United States and Europe are running near capacity, but Middle East conflict-related disruptions could prevent Asian refiners from increasing throughput as planned.

Two China-owned and COSCO Shipping-operated tankers carrying Saudi crude continued through the Red Sea toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite Houthi threats and reported attacks on Saudi vessels. The Houthis claimed responsibility for targeting two tankers and said they had imposed a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, while reports indicated that at least two other ships had turned back. The developments threaten a key route used by Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and add further disruption risks to global oil shipping amid escalating U.S.-Iran and regional hostilities.

TotalEnergies reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted net income of $6 billion, up 68% year over year and 12% from the previous quarter, as higher oil prices, refining margins and trading results boosted earnings and cash flow. Exploration and Production adjusted operating income reached $3.2 billion, while cash flow rose more than 25% despite lower lifting volumes caused by difficulties accessing the Strait of Hormuz. The company increased its 2026 interim dividend to €0.90 per share and authorized up to $1.5 billion in third-quarter share buybacks.

The European Union is expected to grant Greek gas shipper Dynagas a renewable 12-month exemption from new Russian LNG sanctions, allowing it to continue transporting Russian gas to third countries, subject to a cap based on its 2025 volumes. Greece argued that the broader sanctions package could damage its economy. The concessions come as EU purchases of Yamal LNG reached a record 9.97 million tons in the first half of the year, while QatarEnergy's extended force majeure at Ras Laffan threatens to keep LNG prices elevated and complicate the bloc's efforts to refill storage before winter.

India’s requirement that solar module manufacturers use domestically produced cells has triggered severe shortages because local cell capacity is far below demand. Nearly one-third of small and medium-sized module makers reportedly closed after the rule took effect, putting about $4 billion in investment at risk and potentially reducing module production from 3.2 GW to 1 GW. The disruption threatens India’s plans to expand solar capacity and reach 500 GW of non-hydrocarbon generation capacity by 2030, despite substantial domestic module manufacturing capacity.

Houthi forces said they struck two Saudi oil tankers, Encelia and Layla, for violating a newly declared naval blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. One tanker was reportedly on fire, while vessels carrying Saudi crude to India and China turned away from the chokepoint, raising concerns that more operators may reroute cargoes around Africa. Red Sea tanker traffic fell from 38 crossings to 27 in one day. Separately, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below prewar levels, with 253 energy carriers stranded in the Persian Gulf. The disruptions, alongside ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, contributed to Brent crude rising above $96 per barrel.

Brent crude rose above $96 per barrel and WTI climbed to $88.25 as the United States launched its 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets. Iran reported a tanker fire near a mined route south of the Strait of Hormuz, while two other tankers reportedly turned back. Iran-backed Houthis also claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers and threatened shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The risks to both chokepoints have revived concerns about major supply disruptions and increased market volatility, overshadowing a 2-million-barrel U.S. crude inventory build that had contradicted expectations for a draw. Without diplomatic progress, oil prices may remain under upward pressure.

Equinor CEO Anders Opedal warned that Europe may fail to reach its 80% natural-gas storage target before winter. Storage facilities are about 54% full, well below the seasonal average, while stronger Asian LNG demand is increasing competition for flexible cargoes. Although Norway has become Europe's largest external pipeline-gas supplier since Russian exports collapsed, it cannot fully offset a tightening global LNG market. Delayed injections and potential disruptions could leave Europe exposed to higher gas prices and volatility during the winter heating season.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote has proposed a $17 billion, 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Kenya’s Lamu Island to supply Kenya and neighboring East African markets, potentially creating more than 60,000 jobs and reducing the region’s reliance on imported refined fuel. The facility’s deep-water port access and location along the LAPSSET Corridor could support both domestic supply and exports under the African Continental Free Trade Area. However, environmental groups and local communities fear damage to Lamu’s UNESCO-listed marine ecosystem, while lawyers are calling for comprehensive environmental assessments and public consultation. Economists also warn that requested tax incentives and anti-dumping protections could fuel opposition and give Dangote excessive control over regional fuel markets, while the global energy transition raises concerns about the refinery becoming a stranded, high-emissions asset.

Metals markets are being pulled between structural supply deficits and AI-driven infrastructure demand on one side, and high energy prices, inflation fears, tighter monetary policy, and weaker global growth expectations on the other. Copper has the most favorable outlook because of constrained supply, resilient Chinese demand, grid expansion, renewable-energy investment, and data-center electricity needs. Aluminum prices have fallen sharply, although production restarts may be slower and less synchronized than markets expect. Platinum-group metals face greater pressure as automotive demand weakens: palladium has the weakest outlook, while platinum is relatively more resilient and rhodium is expected to remain modestly undersupplied in 2026.

GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $45.5 billion-$46.5 billion after second-quarter revenue rose 22% to $11.1 billion and orders surged 88% to a record $24.2 billion. Demand for gas turbines, grid equipment and electricity infrastructure from utilities and hyperscale data centers is driving growth, with data-center orders exceeding $5 billion so far this year. Wind remains a major weakness: segment revenue fell 10% to $2.03 billion, adjusted EBITDA losses widened to about $275 million, and the business is expected to lose roughly $400 million for the year. Inflation, supply-chain disruptions, financing and construction costs, project cancellations, permitting delays and U.S. policy uncertainty continue to undermine wind economics. Siemens Energy, Vestas and Ørsted are due to report results in August, offering further indications of the wind industry's condition.

Europe’s natural-gas storage facilities are about 54% full, the second-lowest level for this point in 15 years, and may not reach 80% before winter. A colder previous winter depleted inventories, while reduced LNG availability and disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict have intensified competition for cargoes. Asian demand—particularly from China, Japan, Pakistan and India—is drawing U.S. LNG shipments away from Europe, raising the risk of a smaller winter supply buffer and higher energy prices.

China’s crude imports fell 41.3% year over year in June to a decade-low 7.12 million barrels per day, helping contain oil-price increases during the Middle East supply crisis. The country has also been drawing down an estimated 1.2–1.4 billion barrels of strategic and commercial reserves, including roughly 41 million barrels in June. Lower Gulf official selling prices and an easing of Chinese fuel-export restrictions could prompt refiners to increase crude purchases in July and August, supporting prices in the near term. However, with oil again approaching $90 per barrel, China may curb purchases for later-arriving cargoes, making its import and refined-product export policies crucial to the oil-market outlook for the rest of the year.

The IMF warns that renewed Middle East hostilities, higher oil prices and a possible El Niño-related weak monsoon could further reduce India’s economic growth in the 2026/2027 fiscal year. The IMF has already lowered its forecast from 6.5% to 6.4%, citing elevated energy prices and their increased pass-through to consumers. Because India imports more than 85% of its oil and previously sourced about half of those imports from the Middle East, the disruption is also pressuring the rupee, public finances and broader economic activity. Indian refiners are diversifying supplies by increasing purchases from Russia, Venezuela and Brazil.

Mineral rights are legally separate from surface rights and may be inherited, purchased, or retained when land is sold. The guide explains ownership verification, leasing terms such as signing bonuses, royalties, primary and secondary terms, Pugh clauses, and post-production costs, along with valuation considerations for producing, leased, and non-producing interests. It outlines inheritance-related tax benefits, royalty and capital-gains taxation, dormant-mineral rules, and scams involving lowball offers, finder’s fees, forged deeds, and misleading royalty assignments. Owners are advised to verify title, review agreements with qualified professionals, obtain competing offers, and avoid signing under pressure.

Microgrids are localized electricity systems that combine on-site generation, energy storage, and control software, allowing them to operate alongside the utility grid or disconnect and run independently during outages. Their adoption is accelerating because of extreme weather, aging infrastructure, rising electricity costs, falling storage costs, and lengthy grid-interconnection queues. Examples include UC San Diego’s system, which supplies about 92% of campus electricity, military-base installations, and community systems in Puerto Rico. Rapidly expanding AI data centers are becoming a major source of demand because operators need large amounts of reliable power faster than traditional grid infrastructure can be built. Fuel-cell contracts for data centers, including agreements involving Bloom Energy and Oracle, illustrate the scale of investment. The article concludes that microgrids and smart grids are complementary components of a more resilient, distributed electricity system.

U.S. oil and gas extraction employment fell to 114,500 workers in June 2026, nearly 40% below its 2016 peak, even as domestic production approached record levels. The decline is attributed primarily to mergers, automation, productivity gains and investor pressure for efficiency rather than falling oil prices or renewable-energy competition. Major companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, ConocoPhillips and Imperial Oil have announced substantial layoffs, while oilfield-services firms are also reducing staff. The workforce is increasingly shifting from lower-paid roustabout and wellhead roles toward better-paid electricians, automation specialists and remote-operations technicians. Geothermal projects, AI data centers and electricity infrastructure offer potential destinations for displaced workers, but geographic and skills mismatches make the transition difficult. The industry is becoming leaner and more specialized rather than disappearing.

Cesium is emerging as a strategically important critical mineral because it is essential to atomic clocks, navigation, secure communications, aerospace, defense and specialized drilling, while commercial supply is highly concentrated. Power Metals’ Case Lake project in Ontario is presented as North America’s only cesium project approaching production and as one of the world’s largest known cesium resources. An offtake agreement with Albemarle secures a potential customer and up to C$5 million in project prepayments, while Power Metals estimates production could require less than C$8 million. The project is framed as a potential foundation for a North American cesium supply chain, although the article’s claims are subject to project, market and execution risks.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran hostilities have pushed Brent above $86 and raised concerns about renewed inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes. Against that backdrop, the analysis recommends ExxonMobil, EOG Resources, Valero, Cheniere Energy and Texas Pacific Land for their exposure to higher oil, fuel and LNG prices combined with relatively strong balance sheets. ExxonMobil and EOG offer low-debt upstream exposure, Valero benefits from tight refining margins, Cheniere could gain from disrupted Middle Eastern LNG supply, and Texas Pacific Land provides debt-free Permian royalty exposure. Key risks include windfall-tax proposals, refinery outages, Cheniere’s leverage and capital needs, and Texas Pacific Land’s concentrated and highly valued asset base.

China has reduced its vulnerability to a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption through five overlapping defenses: widespread use of electric taxis and vehicles, a roughly billion-barrel crude stockpile, overland oil and gas pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, selective purchasing of Iranian crude, and rapid growth in clean-energy production and exports. During the conflict’s first phase, China cut crude imports by more than 44% while maintaining refinery operations by drawing on inventories. Its pipeline infrastructure and weakening oil demand give it more flexibility than many Asian peers, although storage must eventually be replenished and pipelines are near capacity. Analysts suggest that some of the recent decline in Chinese oil imports could represent a lasting structural shift rather than a temporary response to the crisis.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is considered too dangerous in the near term after hostilities and threats to vessels intensified. Masahiro Okafuji of the Japan Foreign Trade Council and Itochu warned that rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope could raise transportation costs by more than 30%. The Joint Maritime Information Center has maintained a severe threat level, citing likely hostile activity, increased Iranian monitoring and possible vessel diversions. Japan, which previously sourced about 95% of its crude imports from the Middle East, has responded with strategic-reserve releases and alternative supplies from the United States, Azerbaijan and Latin America.

A prolonged heatwave forced France to curtail 6.4 GW of nuclear generation, equivalent to about 14% of national electricity demand. Eight reactors operated at reduced capacity or were taken offline because elevated river temperatures limited cooling-water use. Despite the cuts, France was expected to remain a net electricity exporter, although hydropower generation also faced risks as temperatures exceeded 40°C and the heatwave continued.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol urged the European Commission to reconsider the EU’s 2021 moratorium on Arctic drilling, arguing that Norwegian oil and gas are important to European energy security amid major supply disruptions and conflict. Norway, a major gas supplier to Europe, has lobbied against the moratorium, while European investors and environmental advocates favor keeping it in place because of climate and ecological concerns.

The International Energy Agency lowered its forecasts for Russian oil production in 2026 and 2027 by 85,000 and 150,000 barrels per day, respectively, citing intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, storage facilities, transport infrastructure and fuel routes. Russia's June crude output rose to 8.86 million barrels per day but remained well below its implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million barrels per day. Damage to refining capacity has contributed to a domestic fuel shortage, while limited storage has encouraged higher crude exports. Russia has responded by expanding fuel-export restrictions, including a diesel-export ban acknowledged by President Vladimir Putin.

BP chief executive Meg O’Neill says the company is simplifying its structure, reducing costs, tightening capital discipline and focusing investment on fewer projects. The supermajor is reportedly considering selling or exiting its UK North Sea business because of unfavorable British taxation, while it has already agreed to sell its non-operated stake in Canada’s Bay du Nord offshore development to Equinor. The moves reflect BP’s broader effort to streamline its upstream portfolio and improve investor appeal.

West Texas land prices are surging as Abilene becomes a center of AI data-center development, led by the Stargate campus involving OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank and a neighboring Microsoft project. The region's legacy wind farms and existing transmission infrastructure make it attractive, while new solar and gas capacity are being added to support demand. Ranchers, Abilene's government and landowners stand to benefit from leases, property values and tax revenue, but permanent employment is limited and early land-option agreements may undervalue future power access. The wider risks include speculative projects failing to materialize, higher electricity prices, grid congestion, water and infrastructure pressures, and renewed dependence on a volatile single-industry boom. The durability of the regional transformation depends on how much of Texas's large data-center pipeline is actually built and what infrastructure remains if the boom fades.

Global nuclear power capacity is projected to rise 44%, from 372 GW at the end of 2025 to 535 GW by 2036, according to BloombergNEF. China is expected to nearly double its capacity from 59 GW to 102 GW, overtaking the United States as the largest nuclear-power holder. Rising electricity demand from electrification and AI data centers, energy-security concerns, and decarbonization goals are driving the expansion. India aims to increase nuclear capacity from 8.8 GW to 100 GW by 2047, a goal estimated to require up to 19.28 trillion rupees, or about $204 billion, in cumulative investment.

The article argues that rapidly expanding AI data centers are overwhelming the U.S. power grid, whose generation, transmission and regulatory systems were designed for much slower demand growth. It points to hyperscalers securing dedicated nuclear capacity, local opposition blocking large data-center projects, and high rates of withdrawn grid-interconnection requests as evidence of an emerging power bottleneck. Norway and Finland are presented as attractive alternatives because of their renewable generation, cold climates and existing infrastructure, although available capacity is becoming constrained. The article strongly promotes Bitzero Holdings, emphasizing its claimed 1 gigawatt of secured capacity, a proposed 15-year, $2.6 billion lease with OneQode, NVIDIA GPU deployments and Bitcoin-mining revenue. It compares Bitzero's valuation with larger infrastructure companies while urging investors to recognize its potential upside. A disclaimer states that the OilPrice.com owner's share ownership in Bitzero creates a major conflict of interest.

Germany plans to establish a state-owned strategic natural gas reserve costing up to $1.7 billion, funded through a levy on gas consumers. Gas purchases would be spread over two to three years, with initial injections expected in summer 2027; the reserve would hold volumes equivalent to nearly 10% of Germany’s storage capacity. The measure aims to improve energy security and limit shortages and gas and power price spikes as existing storage remains depleted and geopolitical tensions constrain LNG supply. Germany’s storage sites were 42.88% full on July 6, while LNG accounted for 12% of total gas supply in the first half of the year, with most LNG currently sourced from the United States.

U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week ending June 26 to 408.4 million barrels, leaving stocks 7% below the five-year average. The draw followed a larger 6.072-million-barrel decline reported by API, while Brent and WTI prices were lower in mid-morning trading. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels and middle-distillate stocks increased by 2.5 million barrels, although distillates remained 8% below the five-year average. Four-week average total products supplied was 20.6 million barrels per day, up 1.7% year over year, while distillate demand declined 1.9%.

The rapid expansion of AI data centers is making electricity, grid access, transmission capacity, permits, and cooling resources more strategically important than chips or software alone. The article highlights Bitzero Holdings, which developed low-cost power and data-center sites for Bitcoin mining in Norway, Finland, and North Dakota and now claims a pipeline exceeding one gigawatt. Its most significant development is a proposed 15-year, $2.6 billion lease with OneQode Networks for 110 megawatts at the Namsskogan campus to support enterprise and sovereign AI workloads. Major technology companies are pursuing nuclear power and other dedicated energy arrangements as grid constraints delay projects. The piece is highly favorable toward Bitzero and promotes its investment potential, although OilPrice.com discloses that its owner holds the company’s shares or options, creating a substantial conflict of interest.

Gail Tverberg argues that an Iran-related oil supply disruption could drive prices below $40 per barrel rather than trigger a sustained spike. She contends that depleted reserves, damaged infrastructure, transport delays and higher consumer costs would suppress demand, deepen recession and produce shortages of goods and services. Government restrictions, reduced travel, supply-chain breakdowns and lower industrial activity could force oil consumption to match shrinking supply, echoing the low prices seen during the 2020 pandemic. The article also warns that prolonged geopolitical conflict could worsen disruptions involving Russian oil infrastructure, Middle Eastern sulfur supplies and Qatari LNG, while arguing that economies may need shorter regional supply chains to adapt.

University of Michigan researchers have deployed prototype wave-energy devices on Beaver Island in Lake Michigan, where initial tests powered a light bulb and charged a phone. The larger goal is to develop a backup electricity source for the island’s roughly 600 permanent residents, who rely on a vulnerable 30-mile underwater cable from mainland Michigan. The project is presented as a potential way to improve energy resilience while reducing emissions and costs. The article also places the initiative within broader debates over Great Lakes wind power and warns that rising water and energy demands from AI data centers could intensify resource pressures in the region.