Mustafa Fahs

The Mecca Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan is presented as more than a defense pact: it signals the emergence of three regional center states seeking to shape a new Middle Eastern order. Riyadh is portrayed as reclaiming strategic initiative, leveraging its economic, religious, and geographic weight while pursuing balanced relations with global powers. The agreement is framed not simply as a response to Iran, but as an effort to engage Iran as a neighboring state and prevent Israel or the United States from becoming the region’s dominant power. Its longer-term significance lies in redefining the wider neighborhood around shared political, cultural, social, and religious interests.

Regional power balances in the Eastern Mediterranean are shifting following the collapse of Baathist rule, the weakening of Iranian influence, and Israel’s strategic miscalculations. The October 7, 2023 events accelerated a U.S. policy pivot, enabling new diplomatic alignments involving Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey. Iraq is asserting regional independence, Syria is distancing from Iranian control, and emerging economic corridors linking Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and beyond are reshaping geopolitical and commercial interests. Both Tehran and Tel Aviv view these developments with concern as Washington-backed realignments undermine their previous roles while creating new opportunities for Lebanon and its regional partners.