Nabil Amr

Hamas’s decision to relinquish governance in Gaza and end the role of its armed forces follows a war in which it became isolated, lost Hezbollah’s support, and faced Israel’s overwhelming military advantage and continued American backing. The concessions, including hostage releases and agreement to surrender or store weapons, have been made under duress, while Israel has rejected arrangements that might preserve Hamas’s dignity and instead sought an image of total victory. The central unresolved issue is what Hamas will become after leaving power: whether it will transform into an unarmed political organization, compete for broader Palestinian leadership, and accept Mahmoud Abbas’s conditions and the commitments of the Palestine Liberation Organization. The article argues that Hamas can no longer avoid these questions about its future and the wider Palestinian national movement.

The possible disarmament of Hamas in Gaza would mark the end of armed struggle as the dominant Palestinian military and negotiating strategy, but not the end of the Palestinian national cause. The article contrasts Hamas's impending loss of its weapons with Yasser Arafat's decision to pursue the Oslo Accords, arguing that Israeli leaders Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu later undermined that process and helped revive armed resistance. After the October 7, 2023 attack and Israel's devastating military response, Hamas has lost the ability to use its weapons effectively, making their political presentation and the future of Gaza's reconstruction more important than whether they can be retained. The author argues that disarmament could open the way for the American-backed initiative and eventual Palestinian statehood, while warning that implementation will remain difficult and that Israel has yet to accept the Palestinian cause as central to the region's future.

Leadership uncertainty grows as Mahmoud Abbas’s long tenure approaches its end, with political fragmentation and the legacy of the Oslo process deepening internal Palestinian divisions. Israeli policies have eroded the authority of the Palestinian leadership, while the split between the West Bank and Gaza persists. Attempts to hold elections have not resolved fears of internal power struggles within Fatah or competition with Hamas. The absence of clear presidential contenders beyond Marwan Barghouti underscores the unresolved succession crisis and the lack of viable remedies.