نزار جاف

Iran publicly advocates non-interference and regional sovereignty, but the article argues that Tehran’s preferred Iraqi stability is one that protects its political, security and economic influence rather than one that gives the Iraqi state full control over its territory, weapons and decisions. Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf’s visit and meetings with the Coordination Framework are presented as efforts to ensure that state-building does not dismantle Iran-aligned armed factions. The article also argues that Iran uses Iraq as strategic depth and a potential fallback amid domestic unrest, while Iraq bears economic costs from Tehran’s confrontation with Washington, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The central issue is whether Iran wants a strong Iraq or merely a stable Iraq that remains within its sphere of influence.

The article considers a hypothetical transition in which Maryam Rajavi becomes Iran’s president after the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s clerical system. It portrays Rajavi and the National Council of Resistance of Iran as representing secular democracy, political pluralism, gender equality, human rights and the abolition of the death penalty. The article argues that regime change alone would not resolve Iran’s entrenched economic problems, institutional politicization, corruption, sanctions, elite interests and security structures. A new government would need to redirect resources from regional intervention and armed proxies toward domestic development, pursue transitional justice without revenge, and build institutions capable of managing Iran’s political and social diversity. Such a transformation, it concludes, could significantly reshape relations across the Middle East, but the decisive test would be whether power is ultimately returned to the Iranian people rather than reproduced under a new form of authoritarianism.

Iraq is portrayed as a fragile state weakened by Iran-aligned militias that operate outside government control and draw the country into regional conflicts. Their drone and missile attacks have damaged Iraq’s diplomatic standing and exposed the government’s inability to monopolize decisions on war and peace. The article argues that Baghdad’s balancing act between Washington and Tehran has failed to protect national interests, while repeated official statements of neutrality have not been matched by effective action. Saudi Arabia’s latest response is presented as a consequence of prolonged militia activity and a warning that Iraq will bear the political and diplomatic costs of government inaction. The proposed remedy is to disarm forces outside state control, restore sovereign decision-making in Baghdad, and rebuild Iraq as a stable state rather than a battleground for other powers.

The commentary condemns Iran-aligned Iraqi militias for launching or endorsing cross-border attacks, including a drone strike that damaged Kuwait’s Al-Abdali border crossing and missile and drone activity intercepted by Jordan. It argues that these groups have effectively seized decisions over war and peace while claiming to defend Iraqi sovereignty, leaving the government to manage the diplomatic fallout. The attacks are portrayed as worsening Iraq’s economic, political, and service crises, alienating neighboring states, and turning the country into a platform for other actors’ conflicts. The author concludes that sovereignty and regional influence can only be restored through state institutions, lawful diplomacy, and an end to unofficial military operations.

Nizar Jaf examines the poetry of Kurdish poet Farya Jaf through three poems—“The Fairest of Beauties,” “Reconciliation,” and “I Was a Bird”—arguing that their power comes from emotional sincerity rather than linguistic ornament or dense symbolism. The poems transform ordinary experiences of beauty, reconciliation, love, and loss into layered poetic meanings, often relying on a single sustained image and a gradual movement toward a revealing final line. Jaf emphasizes the connection between the poet’s human experience and his writing, while noting that the commitment to simplicity can sometimes bring the poems close to straightforward prose or personal reflection. He concludes that, when disciplined and authentic, simplicity can be more eloquent than elaborate metaphor.

Nizar Jaf examines Koran Mariwani’s poem “Two Friends of Mine,” highlighting its personification of a lake and a tree as companions who share the poet’s memories of loss, displacement and suffering. The poem’s quiet, contemplative style and accessible symbolism transform grief into a universal human and natural experience. Although its direct symbolism and subdued rhythm may not appeal to every reader, the poem’s emotional sincerity and intimate relationship between humanity and nature give it lasting artistic impact. Jaf places the work within modern Kurdish poetry concerned with exile, memory and the testimony of landscapes, while emphasizing that its power lies more in emotional resonance than in direct political or ideological expression.

The piece revisits the 1989 assassination of Kurdish Iranian leader Abdul Rahman Qasimlo, who was killed in Vienna during negotiations with representatives of the Islamic Republic, alongside Abdullah Qadri-Azar and mediator Fadil Rasul. It argues that Qasimlo believed in dialogue and compromise, whereas Iran treated negotiations as a tactic for buying time and weakening its opponents. The article criticizes Austria and Germany for failing to complete investigations into Qasimlo’s and Sadegh Sharafkandi’s assassinations, and describes warnings from the National Council of Resistance of Iran that Qasimlo should not trust the regime. His political legacy is presented as a combination of Kurdish national rights, democracy and peaceful advocacy, while his decision to negotiate is portrayed as a tragic strategic miscalculation.

Nizar Jaf contrasts Iraq’s former reputation as a nation of readers with its current cultural and scientific decline. He argues that screens and pervasive technology have displaced reading, while prolonged conflict and social tensions have weakened intellectual life. The article acknowledges that the Ba'ath era was deeply repressive but notes that important books and publications still reached Iraqi libraries. After the 2003 U.S.-led invasion and the fall of the Ba'ath regime, intellectuals hoped for cultural renewal, but Jaf says they were largely marginalized in the new Iraq.

A large gathering in Brussels marking the 60th anniversary of the People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran presented Maryam Rajavi and the National Council of Resistance of Iran as a prepared democratic alternative to Iran's clerical regime. Rajavi promoted the opposition's ten-point program, including popular sovereignty, gender equality, religious freedom, Kurdish autonomy and rejection of theocracy and war policies. Opposition representative Sanabarq Zahdi argued that the Iranian government is at its weakest because of poverty, inflation, repression, regional setbacks and international isolation, while claiming growing international support for the resistance. The proposed transition would involve an elected constituent assembly within six months of the regime's fall, followed by a referendum on a new constitution. The event's central message was opposition to foreign war and political compromise with Tehran in favor of change led by the Iranian people.

Nizar Jaf offers an intensely interpretive reading of Kurdish poet Koran Mariwani’s poems “Love” and “Darkness.” He argues that “Love” presents love as the sustaining force of human existence, while humanity’s selfishness, materialism and destructive instincts have killed it. “Darkness” expands this pessimism into an apocalyptic vision in which people destroy not only one another but also forests, rivers, lakes, birds, the moon and the sun, ultimately returning the world to darkness. Jaf links Mariwani’s bleak outlook to his lived experience and to philosophical and literary traditions associated with Schopenhauer, Zola and Brecht. He praises the poem’s imagery and structural experimentation but criticizes its emotional harshness and lack of romantic or sensual elements. The overall conclusion is that Mariwani rejects conventional narratives in which goodness triumphs, portraying instead the systematic stripping of humanity as the beginning and end of a civilization-wide catastrophe.

Iranian hardliners are using fear of instability and a repeat of Syria’s turmoil to discourage demands for political change and negotiations with the United States. The article argues that Iran’s intervention in Syria helped create the catastrophe there and that Tehran’s warnings about a post-regime-change disaster are intended to preserve its rule and isolate the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran. It concludes that the fall of Iran’s government could instead bring widespread public celebration rather than the chaos predicted by the regime.

The commentary compares the failed 1980 U.S. Eagle Claw hostage-rescue mission and an alleged pre–World War II Gestapo plot against Winston Churchill with Israeli intelligence operations targeting Iran. It argues that Mossad learned from earlier failures and successfully seized Iranian nuclear documents and assassinated nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The author says these operations may have deterred or delayed Iran’s retaliation and could represent a warning to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The piece also condemns Hezbollah’s regional role and its links to Iran, arguing that Israeli strikes and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah exposed the group’s vulnerability. It concludes that Iran’s regional influence is increasingly under pressure, raising the possibility that the “eagle” itself—not merely its “claw”—could be targeted or weakened.

Iran's leadership is portrayed as attempting to revive its legitimacy through low-turnout presidential elections, optimistic promises and improved relations with neighboring states. The article argues that Iranian society increasingly sees the regime itself—not individual policies—as the source of decades of hardship and believes fundamental change is necessary. It also claims that Tehran is temporarily moderating its regional ambitions because of political and economic weakness, while continuing efforts to pressure Kurdish actors in Iraq. Allegations involving Iranian responsibility for attacks in Iran and Iraq are cited to argue that the regime has no meaningful red lines and cannot be transformed into a benign regional actor.

Annual gatherings organized by the National Council of Resistance of Iran have grown from diaspora meetings into major international political events that Tehran can no longer ignore. The article highlights the 2018 foiled bombing plot in Paris, the French government’s unsuccessful attempt to block the 2020 demonstration, and the 2024 gatherings in Berlin and Paris, which coincided with Iran’s presidential election and drew thousands of dissidents and prominent Western figures. Opposition representatives argue that Raisi’s death, the low election turnout and Iran’s involvement in the Gaza war exposed the regime’s growing weakness. Speakers including Maryam Rajavi, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo called for international support for the Iranian resistance and the overthrow of the current system, while Arab participation in the 2024 event was described as notably limited.

The article argues that Benjamin Netanyahu’s prolonged military campaign against Hamas in Gaza and Rafah is deepening religious extremism rather than resolving the conflict. It contends that Hamas has been substantially defeated but is being kept politically relevant by Netanyahu’s conduct, which marginalizes moderate voices and fuels confrontation between Islamist and Jewish extremists. The author concludes that Israel’s acceptance of an independent Palestinian state would weaken Hamas, restore a political path to resolving the Middle East crisis, and ultimately serve as a “kiss of life” for Israel.

Nizar Jaf examines Kurdish poet Koran Marivani’s poem “Moon of Jaffa,” emphasizing its philosophical density, indirect imagery and use of a Brechtian technique that keeps readers critically aware rather than emotionally absorbed. Written amid the Gaza war and Israeli-Iranian tensions, the poem uses the moon’s journey with the poet in his summer pajamas to connect Gaza’s devastation with wars and massacres worldwide. Jaf argues that the poem’s contrasts, surreal imagery and references to fleeing civilians expose the persistence of death and destruction, ending with the poet observing massacres from the moon.

Iran is expected to respond cautiously and slowly to Israel's strike on its consulate in Damascus, which killed senior Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi. The article argues that Tehran is unlikely to launch a response comparable to the reaction surrounding Qasem Soleimani's killing, although domestic and regional criticism could pressure it to stage a more forceful or highly publicized operation. Its central point is that Iran should pay greater attention to the Arab public's reaction: many Arabs viewed the strike with satisfaction not because they support Israel, but because they resent Tehran's long-standing regional interference, reliance on Arab proxies and claims that it seeks Israel's destruction while responding inconsistently to Israeli attacks.

Nizar Jaf argues that Muawiya ibn Abi Sufyan and the Umayyad period cannot be erased from Arab-Islamic history despite conflicting Sunni and Shia interpretations. Responding to controversy over MBC Group’s planned television series about Muawiya, he criticizes emotional opposition and perceived intellectual intimidation, while stressing that both sectarian communities share responsibility for perpetuating historical division. He calls for confronting the past honestly, moving beyond inherited disputes and reconciling with history as a condition for Muslim social and intellectual progress.

Nizar Jaf reviews Kurdish poet Koran Marwani's collection 'A Single Thing,' describing its 95-page autobiographical introduction and 144 poems as a complex blend of absurdism, surrealism, stark realism, romanticism and revolutionary critique. The poems repeatedly explore exile, loneliness, love, death and the search for freedom, while also addressing Iraq's repression, imprisoned political comrades, and the conflicts in Kobani and Afrin. Jaf draws on his long friendship with Marwani, recalling how he encouraged the poet to recover and resume his writing, and argues that Marwani's distinctive poetic voice deserves sustained attention from Kurdish critics and writers.

Nizar Jaf examines Kurdish poet and writer Koran Marivani’s recurring preoccupation with death, darkness, existential oppositions and myth. Through readings of poems including “Between Me and the Phenomena,” “The Window,” “Our House” and “Cloud,” the analysis portrays Marivani as balancing a desire for death with an attachment to life, while turning personal anxiety into a broader philosophical vision. The threatening cloud in his poetry symbolizes a bleak future marked by environmental destruction, hunger, deprivation and suffering, linking childhood memories and past trauma to anticipated catastrophes facing humanity. Marivani’s fantastical, pessimistic imagery combines absurdity, logic and existential reflection to present human life as a tragic, Sisyphean cycle.