Ольга Шамина

Russia’s economy faces mounting strain as a fuel shortage deepens disruptions in logistics, transport, and agriculture, compounding earlier shocks from tax increases and internet restrictions. Industrial output stagnates, non-military sectors weaken, and business closures rise. Experts warn that the economy’s dependence on military production and limited liquid reserves leaves little room to offset an expanding budget deficit, driven by declining oil and gas revenues. Central Bank rate cuts may slow as inflation risks grow. With reserves constrained and no sign of reduced wartime spending, analysts expect prolonged stagnation, with future outcomes hinging on the course of the war.