Paul Wiseman

US and Canadian negotiators are conducting urgent talks before a Wednesday deadline on which Donald Trump has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on $20 billion in Canadian imports. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump spoke by phone, while Canadian trade minister Dominic LeBlanc met with US officials. The dispute is a sharp break from historically close bilateral relations, intensified by Trump’s calls for Canada to become the 51st US state. The talks take place as Trump seeks alternative legal and policy tools to revive his tariff agenda after the Supreme Court struck down earlier duties.

US employers cut 23,000 jobs in June, far below forecasts of roughly 100,000 new positions, while earlier payroll figures were revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% largely because 264,000 people left the labor force, reducing participation to its lowest level since February 2021. Public schools, restaurants and bars, and retailers recorded major job losses, although layoffs remain historically low and the labor market has taken on a “no hire, no fire” character. Economists attribute weak hiring to fewer available workers following immigration restrictions and baby-boomer retirements, combined with productivity gains and automation. Rising energy costs linked to the Persian Gulf conflict, policy uncertainty, technology-sector and government-contractor hiring slowdowns, and the possible displacement effects of artificial intelligence add to the risks. The deterioration presents a political setback for Donald Trump’s party ahead of the midterm elections, while Federal Reserve researchers warn that workers at the margins are increasingly being excluded from the recovery.

US employers cut 23,000 jobs last month, sharply missing forecasts, while prior payroll figures were revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% largely because 264,000 people left the labor force, pushing participation to its lowest level since February 2021. Public schools, restaurants and retailers recorded major losses, while a “no hire, no fire” market has left existing workers relatively secure but made it harder for job seekers and new entrants to find work. Immigration restrictions, retirements, weak hiring by technology firms and government contractors, policy uncertainty, automation and rising energy costs are clouding the outlook. The deterioration also creates a political setback for Donald Trump’s party ahead of the midterm elections.

US employers posted 7.36 million job openings in June, down from 7.54 million in May, while layoffs remained broadly stable and voluntary quits edged up. The labor market has continued to withstand higher energy prices linked to fighting in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Employers have added an average of 92,000 jobs per month this year, a significant improvement from last year, and forecasters expect July data to show 100,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Retirements among Baby Boomers and the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown have reduced labor-force growth, meaning fewer jobs may be needed to keep unemployment stable.

A coalition of 25 states led by New York is suing the Trump administration over new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 59 countries and the European Union. The states argue the tariffs improperly recreate measures previously rejected by the Supreme Court and fail to meet the requirements of Section 301 of the Trade Act. The administration says the tariffs lawfully target countries that do not prevent imports made with forced labor and are needed to protect U.S. commerce and workers. The case follows two similar lawsuits by small businesses, with its outcome likely to turn on whether the administration followed the statutory requirements for investigations, consultation and documentation.

A coalition of 25 states led by New York has sued the Trump administration over new Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 59 countries and the European Union. The states argue that the tariffs improperly recreate import taxes previously invalidated by the Supreme Court and that the administration has not met Section 301's requirements to establish specific unfair trade practices. The administration says the tariffs lawfully target countries that fail to prevent forced-labor imports and are necessary to protect U.S. commerce and workers. The case follows two similar lawsuits by small businesses, with legal experts noting that Section 301 has stronger statutory precedent than the authorities previously used by Trump.

A coalition of 25 U.S. states is suing the Trump administration over new double-digit tariffs on 59 countries and the European Union. The states argue that the tariffs, imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and justified by alleged failures to address forced-labor imports, improperly revive import taxes previously rejected by the Supreme Court. New York Attorney General Letitia James accused the administration of illegally raising costs for families and businesses, while legal experts said the case could be significant because Section 301 has established legal precedents and limits.

U.S. economic growth slowed to a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, but resilient consumer spending, strong business investment and artificial-intelligence-related activity supported the economy. The Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures inflation measure fell from 4.1% to 3.7% year over year, yet remained well above the Fed’s 2% target, where it has persisted for more than five years. Imports of computer chips and other AI-related goods reduced reported GDP growth, while the Fed kept interest rates unchanged despite three regional presidents favoring hikes. Persistent living-cost pressures and dissatisfaction over the Iran war are emerging as significant issues ahead of the November midterm elections.

U.S. inflation slowed from 4.1% to 3.7% year over year in June but remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, sustaining public frustration over living costs. Second-quarter GDP growth decelerated to 1.5%, largely because an 11.5% increase in imports, including computer chips supporting artificial intelligence investment, reduced measured growth. Consumer spending and underlying domestic demand remained strong, while business investment expanded despite slowing from the previous quarter. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, with three regional presidents favoring hikes. Inflation and energy prices are emerging as important political concerns ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, alongside growing public dissatisfaction with the Iran war.

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark interest rate near 3.6 percent for a fifth consecutive meeting, despite inflation remaining above its 2 percent target and energy prices rising amid the Iran conflict. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported a quarter-point increase. Markets now place a substantially higher probability on a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, while policymakers await fresh economic-growth and inflation data. The conflict’s effects on oil supplies, including disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Red Sea shipping, complicate the Fed’s efforts to determine whether price pressures are temporary or likely to persist. Tariffs and booming investment in artificial-intelligence data centers are also adding to inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged at their upcoming meeting despite inflation remaining above the 2% target for more than five years. Markets increasingly anticipate a rate hike in September as persistent inflation, tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, higher energy costs linked to tensions involving Iran, and growing demand from artificial-intelligence data centers complicate the Fed’s efforts. Cooling core inflation and temporarily lower gasoline prices have not eased pressure from officials calling for tighter monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its current meeting despite persistent inflation above the 2% target. Traders increasingly anticipate a rate hike in September, as policymakers weigh stalled disinflation against the risk that higher borrowing costs could disrupt financial markets. The Iran conflict, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, oil-price volatility, President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and increased demand for artificial-intelligence infrastructure all add to inflationary pressure. Fed officials have signaled that patience is running out, although softer core inflation and easing rents could support a continued pause.

The Trump administration will impose 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries under Section 301, citing inadequate enforcement of forced-labor import bans. The measures replace temporary worldwide tariffs that expire Friday after the Supreme Court rejected the administration’s earlier reliance on emergency-powers legislation. Officials argue the tariffs will protect workers and correct trade distortions, while critics warn that blanket levies could raise consumer prices, harm U.S. companies and lack meaningful enforcement. Labor-rights specialists say import bans can help combat forced labor but call for phased implementation, transparent investigations and assistance to countries building effective enforcement systems. Further tariffs may follow a separate investigation into overproduction by 16 major trading partners.

The Trump administration is imposing 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners, including the UK, under Section 301 of the Trade Act, as temporary worldwide tariffs expire. The administration says the measures target inadequate enforcement of forced-labor import bans and could protect American workers, but importers may pass the costs on to consumers already facing high prices. Experts acknowledge that tariff threats have prompted some countries to strengthen forced-labor policies, while warning that blanket tariffs, weak enforcement mechanisms and a lack of transparency could limit their effectiveness. Further tariffs may follow an ongoing investigation into alleged overproduction by 16 major trading partners.

The Trump administration is introducing tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries, covering 99% of U.S. imports. The levies, imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, replace temporary global tariffs and are justified by alleged inadequate enforcement of bans on goods made with forced labor. Oil, gas, fertilizer and products covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are exempt. The policy could raise consumer prices, while human-rights organizations argue that it may help combat forced labor internationally.

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 3% in 2026, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are expected to rise nearly 32%, while global inflation is projected to increase to 4.7%, reversing some progress made against rising prices. Strong investment in artificial intelligence and technology is helping offset the damage, particularly in the United States, while the euro area faces weak growth. China is being supported by public spending, high-tech manufacturing and exports, and India remains the fastest-growing major economy despite a slowdown.

The United States, Canada and Mexico are beginning a difficult review of the USMCA, whose six-year renewal deadline arrives amid uncertainty over whether Donald Trump will preserve the agreement. Washington is seeking tighter rules against Chinese goods and higher North American, particularly U.S., production requirements, including a proposed 50% U.S. share for automobiles. Canada and Mexico oppose the demand, while analysts warn it could disrupt supply chains and raise vehicle prices. Businesses, including Mexican spirits importer PKGD Group, are seeking predictable rules after inconsistent U.S. tariffs imposed significant costs.

The United States, Canada and Mexico are beginning difficult negotiations over the six-year renewal of the USMCA, with talks expected to continue for months or longer. Washington is seeking stricter rules to prevent Chinese goods from entering through North America and wants more automotive production, potentially including a 50% U.S. manufacturing requirement. Canada and Mexico oppose that demand, while businesses warn that higher regional-content thresholds could disrupt supply chains and raise vehicle prices. Companies also want relief from unpredictable U.S. tariffs, which have already imposed substantial costs on importers and made complex rules of origin especially burdensome for small businesses.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s final estimate, up from the previous 1.6% projection and rebounding from 0.5% growth in late 2025. Business investment surged, likely reflecting an artificial-intelligence investment boom, while consumer spending weakened sharply. Despite an Iran-related energy shock and uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies, the labor market remained resilient, with employers adding an average of 188,000 jobs per month from March through May.

Alan Greenspan, who led the U.S. Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, has died at 100 from complications of Parkinson’s disease. He was celebrated for helping guide the American economy through periods of sustained growth and crises including the 1987 stock-market crash and the Asian financial crisis. His legacy was later damaged by criticism that easy monetary policy and weak financial-market oversight contributed to the 2008 financial crisis, a conclusion he eventually acknowledged. After leaving the Fed, Greenspan continued working as a consultant, author and economic commentator.

Alan Greenspan, who led the U.S. Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, has died at 100 from complications of Parkinson’s disease. Celebrated as the “Maestro,” he presided over strong economic growth, low inflation and major crisis interventions, including after the 1987 stock-market crash and the Asian financial crisis. His reputation was later damaged by the 2008 financial crisis, with critics blaming his low-interest-rate policies, support for financial deregulation and faith in banks’ self-regulation for helping fuel the housing bubble and excessive risk-taking. Greenspan eventually acknowledged that he had been mistaken about banks regulating themselves, while continuing to defend aspects of his record and the Federal Reserve’s independence.

China’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus and redirection of exports away from the tariff-protected United States are intensifying concerns in Europe about a second China Shock. Chinese companies now compete with advanced economies across electric vehicles, batteries, machinery, robotics and other high-value industries, contributing to Germany’s stagnation and widening trade deficits. G7 leaders are expected to discuss higher tariffs and coordinated measures, while European governments also want the United States to stop imposing tariffs on allies. Economists attribute the export surge to Chinese policies that subsidize manufacturing, suppress household consumption and produce excess capacity, warning that continued overproduction could trigger a global protectionist backlash.

The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the U.S. government may continue collecting President Donald Trump's 10% worldwide tariffs while legal challenges proceed. The ruling gives the Trump administration a procedural victory and found its argument likely to succeed on the merits, reversing the immediate effect of a lower trade court's decision that the tariffs exceeded presidential authority. The levies, imposed under the rarely used Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, are scheduled to expire July 24 unless Congress approves an extension. The dispute centers on whether trade deficits qualify as the statute's “fundamental international payments problems,” and the case may ultimately reach the Supreme Court.

The World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 2.5% this year, citing higher energy prices, disrupted trade and uncertainty caused by the Iran war. Growth projections were cut for two-thirds of countries, including developing and emerging economies, China, India and the euro area, while the United States’ forecast remained unchanged at 2.2%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven Brent crude prices sharply higher and disrupted fertilizer shipments, raising concerns about food shortages and broader economic weakness.

U.S. producer prices increased 6.5% year over year in May, the fastest annual rise since November 2022, and climbed 1.1% from April. Higher energy costs, including a nearly 41% increase in gasoline prices and a roughly 27% rise in airfares, drove the increase amid an energy shock linked to the Iran war. Core producer prices rose 4.9% annually, while consumer inflation reached 4.2%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at its next meeting, although markets anticipate a possible rate increase later in the year.

A federal judge in Boston struck down Donald Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee, ruling that the administration imposed an unauthorized tax without congressional approval. H-1B visas allow U.S. employers to hire foreign workers with specialized skills, with technology companies, universities, hospitals and banks among the main users. Supporters say the program fills skill shortages and boosts productivity, while critics argue it enables companies to replace American workers with lower-paid foreign labor. States challenging the fee said it threatened public education, academic research and health-care staffing.

The U.S. labor market is showing low unemployment but unusually little movement, with both hiring and quitting subdued. Hiring averaged 76,000 jobs per month from January through April, up from last year’s weak pace, but healthcare accounted for more than 456,000 jobs over the past year while other industries collectively cut 205,000. Tax refunds linked to Donald Trump’s 2025 tax cuts have supported demand, although high energy prices and economic uncertainty remain concerns. Reduced immigration and Baby Boomer retirements may have lowered the number of jobs needed to keep unemployment stable. Young workers and the long-term unemployed face particular difficulties, with remote-work training challenges and gradual AI adoption contributing to weaker entry-level hiring rather than widespread layoffs.

U.S. employers posted 7.6 million job openings in April, up from 6.9 million in March and well above economists’ expectations, suggesting resilience in the labor market despite economic uncertainty linked to the Iran war and higher energy prices. Layoffs declined, although fewer Americans quit their jobs. Job growth has improved in 2026 after a weak 2025, aided partly by large tax refunds associated with Donald Trump’s tax-cut legislation, but that boost is fading. Immigration restrictions and Baby Boomer retirements have reduced the number of workers competing for jobs, lowering the monthly job growth needed to keep unemployment stable to nearly zero.

US jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 215,000 last week, while the four-week average rose to 209,000, keeping layoffs near historically low levels. Hiring remains weak, though job creation has improved from last year's pace, and immigration restrictions and Baby Boomer retirements have reduced the number of new jobs needed to keep unemployment stable. The Iran war is worsening the economic outlook by disrupting oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing average US gasoline prices sharply higher, creating additional pressure on consumers and businesses.

A planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing aims to stabilize a severely damaged US-China economic relationship after years of tariffs, export controls, and retaliatory measures. Bilateral trade and the US trade deficit with China have fallen, while Chinese companies have redirected goods through Southeast Asia and expanded into European and other markets. American businesses are diversifying production and sourcing to reduce exposure to China, while China remains important for US supply chains, including critical minerals. Possible summit outcomes include extending a trade truce and renewed Chinese purchases of US soybeans, beef, and Boeing aircraft, but businesses remain wary that future tariff escalation could quickly reverse any progress.

U.S. producer prices rose 6% year over year and 1.4% in April, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, driven partly by higher energy costs associated with the Iran war. The increase exceeded economists’ expectations and could pressure companies to pass higher costs on to consumers. Consumer prices also recorded their sharpest annual rise in more than three years, intensifying affordability concerns ahead of the U.S. congressional elections.

U.S. consumer-price inflation rose 3.8% year over year and 0.6% month over month, with gasoline prices increasing 5.4% as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Core inflation remained more contained at 2.8% annually, but the Federal Reserve is delaying potential rate cuts while assessing whether elevated energy costs will spread across the economy. Consumers are paying more than $4.50 per gallon for gasoline, while Whirlpool reported nearly 10% lower revenue amid weakened confidence and recession-level conditions in the appliance industry.

US consumer prices rose 3.8% year over year in April 2025 and 0.6% from the previous month, driven largely by a 5.4% increase in gasoline prices. The 10-week conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices higher, while core inflation remains comparatively contained at 2.8% annually. The Federal Reserve is now cautious about cutting interest rates because of the risk that energy costs could spread through the wider economy. Donald Trump continues to pressure the Fed for lower rates, while Kevin Warsh’s expected succession of Jerome Powell leaves the future direction of monetary policy uncertain. Whirlpool has reported a nearly 10% revenue decline and cited weakened consumer confidence and a recession-level industry downturn.

The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 65,000, while unemployment remained at 4.3%. Hiring has so far shown resilience despite disruption from the Iran war, higher oil and gasoline prices, and broader economic uncertainty. Recent strength has been supported by private-sector hiring, tax refunds and healthcare employment, although job growth remains uneven and healthcare hiring may weaken as Affordable Care Act subsidies expire, Medicaid spending is reduced and visa costs rise. Economists warn that the effects of the conflict and the eventual fading of fiscal support could slow employment in coming months.

U.S. job openings remained essentially unchanged at 6.9 million in March, while hiring and voluntary quits improved and layoffs increased. The labor market has weakened from its post-pandemic peak amid high interest rates, uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies, and possible disruption from artificial intelligence. Job creation has fluctuated sharply in 2026, and forecasters expect April data to show modest hiring and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

U.S. economic growth held at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter, while inflation accelerated as gasoline prices surged following the disruption of oil supplies linked to the Iran war. Large tax refunds resulting from Donald Trump’s 2025 tax cuts and strong business investment driven by artificial intelligence have temporarily cushioned the impact on consumers and the broader economy. However, tax refund season is ending, gas prices remain elevated, and economists expect consumer spending and GDP growth to weaken. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, are holding interest rates steady as they balance slowing growth against renewed inflation. The labor market remains relatively resilient, with unemployment claims at their lowest level in more than 50 years, although hiring is weak and entry-level workers face growing concerns about AI-related job displacement.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, rebounding from 0.5% growth in the final quarter of 2025 as federal government spending recovered after a 43-day shutdown. Consumer spending slowed, while business investment—likely boosted by artificial-intelligence spending—grew strongly. The outlook has become substantially more uncertain because Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up energy prices, increased inflationary pressure and threatened consumer activity. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady, citing uncertainty from the conflict, while economists said the war’s effects were exceptionally difficult to model.

The Trump administration is pursuing two Section 301 investigations that could produce new tariffs covering imports from dozens of economies, including China, the European Union and Japan. One inquiry concerns products linked to forced labor, while the other examines alleged overproduction that disadvantages U.S. manufacturers. The effort is intended to replace revenue lost after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose broad tariffs. Although Section 301 tariffs require a formal process and have previously survived court challenges, trade experts and importers question the speed and fairness of the investigations. New duties would likely be passed on to consumers already facing high prices, while Congress appears reluctant to extend temporary tariffs before the midterm elections.

The IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, from 3.3% in January and 3.4% in 2025, while raising its inflation projection to 4.4%. The downgrade reflects the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, including higher oil and gas prices after strikes and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The IMF’s baseline assumes a short-lived conflict, but a prolonged energy shock could reduce global growth to 2% in 2026 and 2027. Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and heavily indebted energy-importing countries face particular pressure, while Russia could benefit from higher energy revenues. Ukraine is already experiencing elevated inflation and fuel-related costs as it continues its war with Russia.

U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March and 4% from a year earlier, the largest annual increase in more than three years, as energy prices jumped 8.5% amid the Iran war. Core producer prices increased more modestly, while the overall figures came in below economists’ forecasts. Rising energy costs complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions, particularly as President Donald Trump pushes for lower rates while some policymakers are considering increases to contain renewed inflationary pressure. Consumer prices also accelerated sharply, driven largely by gasoline.

The United States and global economy are better positioned to withstand oil shocks than they were in the 1970s because of improved energy efficiency, expanded alternative energy sources, strategic oil reserves, diversified production and reduced reliance on oil for electricity. However, the current disruption caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unusually large, potentially removing about 15% of global daily oil production and raising fuel, fertilizer and transportation costs. The U.S. has become a net petroleum exporter through fracking, but transportation remains overwhelmingly dependent on oil. Experts also warn that recent U.S. policies under President Donald Trump, including ending electric-vehicle incentives and weakening fuel-economy rules, could increase future vulnerability, while central banks must avoid repeating the 1970s mistake of stimulating growth in ways that worsen inflation.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war between Iran and the United States will reduce global economic growth, even if the announced ceasefire holds. The conflict has increased oil and natural-gas prices, damaged energy infrastructure, disrupted fertilizer shipments and weakened business and consumer confidence. The IMF is expected to downgrade its global growth forecast after previously projecting 3.3% growth. Sub-Saharan Africa and small island states face particular vulnerability, while heavily indebted governments have limited capacity to cushion the shock. Georgieva urged policymakers to coordinate rather than worsen conditions through export restrictions or price controls.

The U.S. economy grew at a 0.5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, down from the Commerce Department’s previous 0.7% estimate. Growth was weakened by a 43-day federal government shutdown, which caused federal spending and investment to fall at a 16.6% annual pace and reduced GDP growth by 1.16 percentage points. Consumer spending rose 1.9%, while full-year growth reached 2.1%, below the rates recorded in 2024 and 2023. The outlook for 2026 remains uncertain amid higher energy prices, disrupted global commerce and volatile employment figures.

US employers added 178,000 jobs in March, roughly three times economists’ forecasts, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The decline partly reflected a 396,000-person drop in the labor force. Healthcare led the gains, including 31,000 Kaiser Permanente workers returning after a strike, while manufacturing and construction also added jobs. Wage growth remained moderate at 3.5% year over year, but the broader labor market remains weak amid high interest rates, uncertainty over Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies, concerns about artificial intelligence, and the potential effects of war in Iran and higher energy prices.

U.S. job openings declined from 7.2 million in January to 6.9 million in February, while layoffs increased and workers’ quits decreased, signaling reduced confidence in the labor market. Hiring has weakened amid high interest rates, uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s economic policies, and concerns about artificial intelligence replacing entry-level work. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.4%, creating a low-hire, low-fire environment in which employers are reluctant both to add staff and to dismiss existing workers.

The prolonged Iran war is causing a major global energy shock as attacks damage Gulf oil, LNG, refinery and shipping infrastructure. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed about 20 million barrels of oil a day from global markets, sharply increased crude prices and disrupted fertilizer, helium and LPG supplies. Poorer countries and energy-importing Asian economies face the greatest risks, including fuel rationing, higher food prices and reduced industrial activity. The United States is partly protected by its energy production and constrained LNG exports, but rising gasoline prices and an already weakening economy have pushed the estimated risk of recession higher. Economists warn that infrastructure damage could take years to repair, creating prolonged inflation, weaker growth and a slow recovery.

U.S. producer prices rose 0.7% in February from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier, exceeding economists' expectations and marking the largest annual increase in a year. Higher hotel and food prices contributed to the rise. The data preceded the war with Iran, which has since pushed energy prices higher and further complicated the inflation outlook. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged while assessing persistent inflation and weakness in the U.S. labor market; consumer inflation and the Fed's preferred PCE measure also remained above its 2% target.

The United States, Mexico and Canada are beginning difficult negotiations over renewing the USMCA, which governs roughly $1.6 trillion in annual goods trade. The United States is seeking tougher rules against Chinese content, more domestic production and greater access to Canada’s dairy market, while Mexico wants to preserve the agreement, minimize tariffs, make rules of origin more flexible and strengthen dispute resolution. Renewal could extend the pact for 16 years, but failure to reach agreement by 2036 would cause it to expire, and any member can withdraw with six months’ notice. Tariffs, U.S. trade deficits and President Donald Trump’s stated willingness to abandon or restructure the agreement are creating significant uncertainty for North American commerce.

US job openings increased from 6.55 million in December to 6.95 million in January, exceeding economists’ expectations. Layoffs declined slightly, while workers quitting their jobs fell modestly. Despite the rise in vacancies, the labor market remains weak: employers cut 92,000 jobs recently and average monthly hiring in 2025 was below 10,000, the weakest performance outside recession years since 2002. Economic growth also slowed sharply in late 2025, while President Donald Trump’s import taxes, deportations and the war in Iran added uncertainty to the outlook.

The US economy grew at an annualized 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter, sharply below the Commerce Department's initial 1.4% estimate and the previous quarter's 4.4% growth. The 43-day government shutdown caused federal spending and investment to plunge, subtracting 1.16 percentage points from growth. Consumer spending rose 2%, while nonhousing business investment increased 2.2%, possibly reflecting continued spending on artificial intelligence. Full-year 2025 growth was revised to 2.1%. A weak labor market, higher energy prices linked to the war with Iran, and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's policies are clouding the outlook, while economists debate whether AI and automation can sustain growth without strong job creation.

The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply increased oil, gasoline and fertilizer prices, threatening inflation, economic growth and food security worldwide. Energy-importing economies, especially Pakistan and poorer agricultural countries, face the greatest risks, while oil producers outside the conflict zone may benefit. The United States could gain modestly as a net energy exporter, but higher household fuel costs may offset tax-cut benefits. Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, face a difficult choice between raising rates to contain renewed inflation and cutting them to support weakening economies.

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, sharply missing economists’ expectation of 60,000 new positions. Downward revisions removed another 69,000 jobs from December and January. Job losses spread across construction, healthcare, manufacturing, hospitality, administrative services, and courier businesses, while financial firms added jobs. Economists said weak hiring reflects persistent uncertainty from Donald Trump’s tariffs, high interest rates, and the Iran war’s impact on oil prices and business costs. Wage growth remained positive, but the combination of slowing employment and renewed inflation complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision over whether to cut interest rates. Companies are increasingly following a “no-hire, no-fire” approach and may be delaying recruitment while assessing automation and artificial intelligence investments.

U.S. employers are expected to have added about 60,000 jobs in February, a slowdown from January’s 130,000 but a substantial improvement over the average of 15,000 monthly jobs in 2025. Forecasts put unemployment at 4.3%, while Bank of America and ADP data indicate stronger hiring momentum. Severe winter weather and a Kaiser Permanente strike likely reduced payroll growth, and January’s figure may be revised downward. Hiring remains constrained by high interest rates, uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariffs, slower post-pandemic growth and companies’ efforts to use artificial intelligence to increase productivity. Retirements and deportations have reduced labor-force growth, lowering the number of jobs needed to keep unemployment stable.

A federal judge in New York ruled that importers are entitled to refunds for tariffs imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act after the Supreme Court struck those tariffs down as unconstitutional. The ruling requires Customs and Border Protection to stop collecting the duties and recalculate amounts for goods still in liquidation, while importers generally have 180 days to contest finalized duties. The government collected more than $130 billion and could owe up to $175 billion in refunds. Officials and trade lawyers expect substantial administrative challenges and a possible government appeal, but a federal appeals court has directed the refund process to the New York trade court.

A federal appeals court rejected the Trump administration’s request for a 90-day pause before processing refunds for tariffs that the Supreme Court had ruled unlawful. The case now returns to the U.S. Court of International Trade, which must establish how importers will seek repayment. The government collected more than $130 billion in tariffs and could face refund liabilities of up to $175 billion, creating significant administrative and financing challenges as the administration considers replacement tariffs.

US producer prices rose 0.5% in January from the previous month and 2.9% year over year, exceeding economists’ forecasts of 0.3% and 1.6%, respectively. The increase was driven mainly by higher wholesale service prices and retailer and wholesaler profit margins. Consumer inflation recently eased to 2.4%, but inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Economists had expected President Donald Trump’s import taxes to push prices higher, though their impact has so far been more limited than anticipated. Producer-price components also feed into the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measure.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly to just over $901 billion in 2025, even as the goods deficit widened to $1.24 trillion. Exports rose 6% and imports nearly 5%, while the services surplus increased to $339 billion. The goods deficit with China fell sharply, but trade shifted toward Taiwan and Vietnam, where deficits expanded substantially. The United States also recorded a larger goods deficit with Mexico and a smaller one with Canada. Companies increased imports ahead of President Donald Trump's tariffs, which he says will protect domestic industry and raise revenue, although the measures have had less effect on inflation than initially expected.

The US economy has recently grown strongly, but job creation remains weak and layoffs are increasing. Economists attribute the gap to the effects of high interest rates, federal workforce cuts, uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s trade policies, and the growing use of AI and automation. Upcoming Labor Department revisions could sharply reduce reported 2025 employment growth or show an annual decline. Unemployment remains relatively low partly because immigration restrictions have reduced the number of workers entering the labor market, but young and job-seeking workers face increasing difficulty finding employment.

US job openings fell from 6.9 million in November to 6.5 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, while layoffs edged up and job quits remained broadly unchanged at 3.2 million. The figures point to a sluggish labor market despite strong economic growth, with employers adding only about 28,000 jobs per month since March compared with roughly 400,000 per month during the 2021–2023 post-pandemic hiring boom. Economists are weighing whether hiring will recover, growth will weaken, or artificial intelligence and automation will allow the economy to expand without creating many jobs.

The U.S. Department of Labor postponed the January jobs report and the December job-openings report because a partial federal government shutdown halted Bureau of Labor Statistics operations. The delay comes as economists assess an unusual economy with strong GDP growth but weak hiring: employers have added about 28,000 jobs per month since March, compared with roughly 400,000 per month during the 2021–2023 post-pandemic hiring boom. Economists are debating whether employment will accelerate, growth will slow, or artificial intelligence and automation will enable growth without substantial job creation.

Researchers Gregory Auclair and Adnan Mazarei of the Peterson Institute for International Economics question whether more than $5 trillion in investment pledges from major US trading partners will materialize. They say the commitments vary in timing, lack clear verification standards and are generally nonbinding, with Gulf states potentially struggling to finance them. The pledges were obtained through tariff threats, raising the possibility that countries could seek to withdraw, particularly if the Supreme Court invalidates the tariffs. The investments could create jobs, strengthen supply chains and expand US manufacturing, but the researchers warn of opaque project selection, weak accountability and political considerations overriding economic efficiency.

The U.S. economy grew at a 4.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter and slightly above the government’s initial estimate. Consumer spending rose 3.5% and, together with stronger exports and lower imports, drove the expansion. Despite robust GDP growth, many Americans face high living costs, while the labor market has weakened, adding only about 28,000 jobs per month since March even as unemployment remains low at 4.4%. The contrast between strong aggregate growth and financial strain among lower-income households reflects a potentially K-shaped economy.

U.S. producer prices increased 0.2% in November from the previous month and 3% year over year, according to a Labor Department report delayed by the 43-day federal government shutdown. Core producer prices were unchanged monthly and up 3% annually, while gasoline prices rose sharply. The data suggest President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have contributed less to inflation than expected, although consumer inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. December producer-price data are scheduled for release on January 30.

US consumer-price inflation slowed unexpectedly to 2.7% year over year in November, down from 3% in September and below forecasts. The Labor Department’s report was delayed by a 43-day federal government shutdown, leaving October data unavailable. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs adding upward pressure to prices, though less than economists had feared. The Federal Reserve recently cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year but signaled that it expects only one further cut in 2026 as it weighs persistent inflation against a weakening job market.

The US labor market added 64,000 jobs in November after losing 105,000 in October, while unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021. The delayed reports followed a 43-day federal shutdown, with federal layoffs accounting for much of October’s losses. Hiring has weakened amid uncertainty over Trump administration tariffs, high interest rates and growing use of artificial intelligence, while wage growth slowed to its lowest annual rate since May 2021.

The US economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, largely because 162,000 federal positions were eliminated, then added 64,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, while wage growth slowed and earlier employment figures were revised sharply downward. Healthcare and construction added jobs, but manufacturing continued to contract. Employers are retaining workers while limiting new hiring amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs, high interest rates, the government shutdown and the growing use of artificial intelligence and automation. The Federal Reserve recently cut rates by a quarter point, though deep divisions among officials suggest another reduction in January is uncertain.

The U.S. Labor Department is expected to report that employers added only about 40,000 jobs in November and that unemployment held at 4.4%, with the release delayed 11 days by a 43-day government shutdown. Hiring has slowed sharply from the post-pandemic boom, while tariff uncertainty, high interest rates and automation are discouraging new recruitment. The Federal Reserve recently cut rates but remains divided, with Chair Jerome Powell warning that revisions could show the economy has actually been losing jobs since spring. Delayed data is also expected to capture a major decline in federal employment following buyouts and departures associated with Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.

A report by Democrats on Congress’s Joint Economic Committee estimates that President Donald Trump’s tariffs cost American consumers nearly $159 billion, or about $1,198 per household, between February and November. Senator Maggie Hassan said the tariffs have driven prices higher, while Trump argues they protect U.S. industries, create jobs, and generate Treasury revenue. Economist Kimberly Clausing estimates the annual cost to an average household could reach roughly $1,700.

A report by Democrats on Congress’s Joint Economic Committee estimates that American consumers bore nearly $159 billion in tariff costs from February through November, equivalent to about $1,198 per household. The analysis used Treasury revenue data and Goldman Sachs estimates of how tariff costs are passed to consumers. Economists cited in the report say the tariffs represent a major tax increase that lowers living standards, while the Trump administration argues they protect U.S. industries, attract investment, generate Treasury revenue and improve trade terms. The dispute comes amid voter concerns about high living costs and recent Democratic electoral gains.

U.S. employers posted 7.67 million job openings in October, nearly unchanged from September but well below the March 2022 peak of 12.1 million. Layoffs increased while workers quitting declined, suggesting weaker confidence in the labor market. Persistent inflation, partly linked to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, complicates the Federal Reserve’s expected decision to cut interest rates for a third time this year. A 43-day federal shutdown delayed the October report, prevented a separate September release, and disrupted the calculation of October’s unemployment rate and other employment statistics.

Costco has filed a complaint in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking refunds for tariffs imposed under Donald Trump, arguing that waiting could jeopardize its claim once Customs and Border Protection liquidates the tariff bills. Revlon and Bumble Bee Foods have taken similar steps. The tariffs have generated about $90 billion and are being challenged before the Supreme Court, where several justices have questioned whether Trump had authority to impose them through national-emergency powers. The outcome could determine whether importers receive refunds and how much they recover.

The OECD raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2%, citing stronger-than-expected resilience despite US trade barriers and policy uncertainty. It lifted its US growth projection to 2%, while forecasting 5% growth for China, 1.3% for the euro area and 6.7% for India. The organization expects global growth to slow to 2.9% in 2026, warning that higher tariffs will eventually raise prices and reduce household consumption and business investment. Artificial intelligence investment and companies importing goods before tariffs took effect have helped cushion the impact so far.

The delayed September U.S. jobs report is expected to show weak hiring but few layoffs, with economists forecasting about 50,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Revised data indicate that job creation was substantially weaker than initially reported, averaging 71,000 monthly through March and only 53,000 per month afterward. Economists attribute the strain to high interest rates, trade-policy uncertainty and reduced immigration, which may lower the number of workers seeking jobs and reduce the monthly hiring needed to keep unemployment stable. The Labor Department will not issue a full October report because the shutdown prevented it from calculating the unemployment rate, making the September figures especially important ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December interest-rate meeting.

The Labor Department will not release a complete October employment report because the 43-day federal shutdown prevented the household survey needed to calculate unemployment and other indicators. It will release employer-based job-creation figures alongside the delayed November report on December 16. The September report, delayed until Thursday, will therefore be the last full set of hiring and unemployment data available to Federal Reserve policymakers before their December 9–10 meeting. The disruption follows heightened political scrutiny of jobs data after President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer; McEntarfer said the missing October figures were a straightforward result of the shutdown, not a conspiracy.