Павел Аксенов

Ukraine’s expanding use of drones, cruise missiles and maritime drones has made Russia’s Black Sea Fleet vulnerable even after its relocation from annexed Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. Recent strikes reportedly damaged the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen near the Novorossiysk quay, potentially disabling their Kalibr missile launchers. Russia could strengthen defenses in Tsemess Bay or seek another base, but facilities in Abkhazia and the Sea of Azov lack comparable infrastructure, while Turkish restrictions on the straits prevent moving ships elsewhere for reinforcement or major repairs. Despite its losses and constrained mobility, the fleet remains capable of launching missile attacks, controlling maritime routes and threatening Ukrainian shipping. A shift toward smaller missile corvettes and patrol craft could improve survivability but would reduce Russia’s ability to operate beyond the Black Sea.

The United States is developing a new nuclear-deterrence strategy in response to China’s expanding nuclear forces, the expiration of the New START treaty with Russia, and growing tensions in Europe and the Middle East. The emerging approach would give a larger role to non-strategic, lower-yield nuclear weapons and rely more heavily on allies through a model of distributed deterrence. U.S. strategists argue that these capabilities could provide more credible, flexible options for controlled escalation, while critics warn that they may lower the threshold for nuclear use, trigger an arms race and make a wider nuclear war more likely. European countries are already discussing greater regional responsibility, including France’s proposal for a collective nuclear umbrella.