Ruaridh Nicoll

Cuba’s worsening fuel shortages and repeated nationwide blackouts have deepened public anger at the government, yet communist loyalists gathered in Pinar del Río to mark the 1953 Moncada barracks attack and reaffirm resistance to possible US intervention. Cuban officials say the population would defend the island through a mass-mobilization strategy, although the military is poorly equipped and many citizens appear reluctant to fight. Supporters credit the revolution with expanding education and reducing racial inequality, while critics blame its leadership for economic collapse. President Miguel Díaz-Canel defended Cuba’s social indicators, but Raúl Castro’s absence from the anniversary highlighted the erosion of longstanding political traditions.

A U.S. State Department report portrays Cuba as a uniquely dangerous source of foreign influence behind major upheavals in American politics, but its claims contrast sharply with Cuba’s hunger, uncollected rubbish and prolonged blackouts under a six-month oil blockade. The analysis argues that the report recycles selective Cold War history, ignores U.S.-backed or U.S.-sheltered militant activity, and reframes domestic struggles over race and civil rights as a Cuban conspiracy. Cuban officials and critics characterize the document as a form of McCarthyism, while ordinary Cubans largely blame their own government for the economic crisis despite rejecting Washington’s broader allegations.

Cuba faces escalating instability as nationwide blackouts deepen amid a prolonged US-imposed oil blockade and decaying infrastructure. Rising temperatures and worsening electricity outages have fueled public anger, protests, and growing crime. US pressure, including sanctions, legal actions, and political signaling, has further strained the island’s economy and governance. Internal political tensions have increased following a controversial public appearance by Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, provoking backlash among citizens and government-affiliated youth. Despite attempts by Cuba to open its economy, Washington has dismissed reform efforts. As the grid briefly recovered before failing again, daily life continues to deteriorate, leaving citizens increasingly desperate and uncertain about the future.

Donald Trump’s threat to “take” Cuba has heightened fears across the Caribbean island. Escalating US sanctions and an oil blockade have reportedly crippled essential services, caused prolonged blackouts and brought daily life for Cuba’s roughly 10 million residents close to a standstill. Nour Haydar and Ruaridh Nicoll discuss conditions in Havana and assess whether US military intervention could follow.

Across China, Mexico, Iran, Ukraine, Israel, Canada, France, Russia, the UK, Japan, Cuba, India, Australia and South Africa, confidence in the United States has weakened during Donald Trump’s second presidency. Tariffs, threats, immigration crackdowns, military intervention, attacks on allies and unpredictable diplomacy have eroded the image of America as a reliable defender of freedom and prosperity. Admiration for US culture, economic dynamism and educational opportunities persists, but strategic partners are seeking greater self-reliance and closer ties with Europe or regional powers. The result is a United States that remains powerful and indispensable in many relationships while increasingly viewed as transactional, coercive and unreliable.

Cubans hope the 2026 World Cup, including seven matches in nearby Miami, will deter or delay possible US military action, while preparing for escalation. US pressure has intensified through an oil blockade, military deployments, surveillance flights, warnings over alleged Cuban acquisition of Russian and Iranian drones, and an indictment against former president Raúl Castro. Cuban officials warn that any attack would trigger a devastating response, even as blackouts and protests increase domestic pressure on the government. Analysts and observers argue that military action during the tournament would carry major political and reputational risks for Washington.

Cuba is enduring prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, unaffordable cooking gas, high inflation and extreme heat after four months of a US oil blockade. Havana residents are increasingly protesting, while the government struggles to maintain electricity and prepare for a possible US attack. Washington has imposed further sanctions on Cuban officials and organizations, contributing to the withdrawal of major hotel operators and worsening pressure on the tourism and private-enterprise sectors. Analysts see little prospect of negotiations and warn that either Cuban concessions or forcible regime change could produce severe consequences, while the World Meteorological Organization forecasts an especially hot, dry Caribbean summer.

Cubans are reacting with anger and alarm to the US indictment of former president Raúl Castro over the 1996 shoot-down of Brothers to the Rescue aircraft, amid growing fears that Washington could launch military strikes or abduct him. The story links the heightened tensions to US surveillance, sanctions, an oil blockade, pressure over Cuba’s ties with Russia and China, and a proposed $100m aid package. It also describes severe blackouts and economic hardship, while noting criticism of the Cuban government’s military-controlled economy. Concerns about a future US protectorate have intensified after reports that Canadian miner Sherritt may transfer control of its Cuban assets to a former Trump adviser. Cuban and foreign commentators argue that any trials for Castro-era crimes should ultimately be decided by Cubans themselves.

The US indicted former Cuban president Raúl Castro on charges connected to the 1996 shooting down of civilian aircraft, sharply escalating pressure on Cuba. Donald Trump said there would be no immediate escalation but declined to rule out a Maduro-style arrest, while his administration continued to signal possible military action and maintained pressure through an oil blockade. Cuba accused Washington of hypocrisy, citing alleged US extrajudicial killings of suspected drug smugglers. The live coverage also detailed growing opposition to Trump’s proposed $1.776bn Anti-Weaponization Fund, including criticism from Republican senator Bill Cassidy, Republican representative Brian Fitzpatrick, January 6 police officers and California governor Gavin Newsom. Other developments included charges against a former prosecutor accused of mishandling a classified-documents report, Trump’s threats against Republican dissenters, tensions involving Iran and Israel, and controversy over US ambitions in Greenland.

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a grand-jury indictment of former Cuban president Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of aircraft belonging to the exile group Brothers to the Rescue. The move follows CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Havana and comes amid escalating US pressure, a four-month oil blockade, surveillance flights and threats of military action. Cuba is simultaneously facing severe fuel shortages, 22-hour blackouts, protests and deepening economic hardship. Talks between US officials and senior Cuban figures remain unresolved, with Washington demanding fundamental reforms in exchange for aid and Havana seeking assistance without political conditions.

Cuba has exhausted its supplies of diesel and fuel oil, leaving the national electricity grid dependent on domestic crude oil, natural gas and renewable energy. Blackouts lasting up to 22 hours have triggered protests in Havana and disrupted public services, waste collection, education, healthcare and tourism. Energy minister Vicente de la O Levy said Cuba is seeking fuel from any willing supplier, but US tariff threats have deterred former suppliers such as Mexico and Venezuela. A Russian tanker delivered the only major oil shipment since December, while the United Nations condemned the blockade as unlawful. The crisis remains acute despite temporary restoration of power in Havana and increased solar capacity, which is constrained by grid instability and insufficient battery storage.

Cuba’s tourism industry has collapsed under a US oil blockade and escalating threats from the Trump administration, with leisure visitors reportedly falling from roughly 170,000–180,000 in March 2025 to about 20,000–25,000 in March 2026. Fuel shortages have driven airlines and package-tour operators away, worsening power and economic crises and threatening the livelihoods of some 300,000 tourism workers. A small number of determined visitors continue to travel to Havana, while tourism professionals argue that local businesses and private hotels still need foreign customers; others caution that the diminished services, shortages and security concerns make travel far less enjoyable and potentially risky.

Cuba’s worsening economic crisis, fuel shortages, blackouts, inflation and mass emigration are intensifying depression, anxiety and mental fatigue. With state pharmacies largely empty, many Cubans are obtaining antidepressants, benzodiazepines and stimulants on the black market, while rural residents turn to herbal remedies and some young people use the synthetic cannabinoid known as “el químico.” Healthcare professionals describe widespread self-medication and growing psychological distress, compounded by uncertainty, isolation and the departure of family members. The crisis echoes the prescription-drug dependence of the 1990s Special Period but offers fewer hopes of recovery.

The arrival of a sanctioned Russian oil tanker in Cuba and Havana's release of 2,010 prisoners are being interpreted as reciprocal confidence-building measures in secret US-Cuban negotiations. The shipments come as the US blockade deepens Cuba's economic and humanitarian crisis, with tourism collapsing, fuel shortages worsening and daily blackouts affecting an exhausted population. The emerging possibility is a transactional deal in which Cuba opens its economy to US business while members of the existing ruling elite retain influence, potentially including Castro family figures. Such an arrangement could conflict with hardliners in Miami and leave millions of state-dependent, elderly Cubans vulnerable to further hardship.

Journalists Ruaridh Nicoll and Daniel Montero report from Havana as a US-imposed oil blockade causes widespread blackouts, reduced school hours, shuttered shops and a collapse in tourism. The episode examines increasingly aggressive statements by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio toward Cuba’s communist government, while considering how ordinary Cubans are coping and whether negotiations between Havana and Washington can prevent further escalation.

A nationwide blackout left roughly 10 million Cubans without electricity amid an already severe fuel shortage, aging infrastructure, disrupted services and growing public hardship. Donald Trump’s suggestion that he could “take” or “free” Cuba has intensified fears of US intervention, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Washington considers Havana’s proposed opening to foreign and expatriate investment insufficient. US pressure has reportedly included demands for President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s resignation and tariffs targeting countries supplying Cuba with oil. The Cuban government is attempting gradual grid restoration and signaling economic concessions, but repeated power collapses, protests and deteriorating living conditions are raising questions about whether the political system can withstand the pressure.

Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuban officials have held talks with the US government to address bilateral differences, as a three-month fuel shortage and repeated power failures deepen domestic hardship. The discussions come amid Donald Trump's threats of a takeover, Marco Rubio's calls for regime change, and an effective US oil blockade. Díaz-Canel said the talks are being directed by himself and Raúl Castro, while Raúl Castro's grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, has reportedly met US officials. Cuba also announced plans to release 51 prisoners under a Vatican-brokered agreement, though analysts questioned the scale and conditions of the releases. No immediate response came from the White House.

Ten heavily armed men from Florida were intercepted by the Cuban coastguard near Cayo Falcones after arriving on a speedboat stolen in the United States; four were killed and six wounded. The incident has bewildered many in Miami’s Cuban-American community, where support for armed efforts to overthrow Cuba’s government has waned among newer generations. At least two of the participants were US citizens, but their recruitment, financing and objectives remain unclear. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied US government involvement, while Cuban officials described the episode as part of a long history of US-based aggression. Experts said the operation echoed earlier exile commandos and recent unrealistic coup plots but was anachronistic and unlikely to affect emerging US–Cuba negotiations.

Donald Trump suggested that the United States could pursue a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, claiming that Havana is in severe economic trouble and is negotiating with Washington. The comments follow intensified US pressure, including an oil blockade, after Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro was captured and Cuba lost access to Venezuelan oil. Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, has said any talks must respect the country’s sovereignty and self-determination. Analysts interpret Trump’s business-oriented language and Marco Rubio’s role as signs that Washington may be seeking economic openings while leaving parts of Cuba’s existing political structure in place. The proposal risks alarming Cubans because of the history of US financial domination before Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution and could divide the Cuban exile community in the United States.

Cuba says its border guards killed four Cuban exiles and injured six others after a Florida-registered speedboat allegedly opened fire during an attempted coastal infiltration. President Miguel Díaz-Canel vowed to resist any terrorist or mercenary aggression, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied American government involvement and said officials were still gathering facts. The incident occurred amid heightened Cuba-US tensions and could strengthen Havana’s political position, although talks between the two governments reportedly continue. Details remain uncertain, including the attackers’ objectives, the boat’s origin and the identities and legal status of those involved.