Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy has lowered its forecast for Russian crude production to 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026 and 8.6 million bpd in 2027. Ukrainian drone strikes, tighter sanctions, unreliable export terminals and weak refinery throughput are increasingly forcing production cuts, while Russia's limited spare capacity is concentrated in aging wells that may be permanently damaged by prolonged shutdowns. A projected global oil surplus in 2027 could further weaken prices, deepen discounts on Russian crude and reduce buyers' willingness to bear the risks associated with sanctioned barrels.

Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has undermined the assumption that the key energy corridor will remain reliably accessible, even if physical flows recover. The resulting uncertainty may raise insurance, freight, inventory and investment costs, giving resilience greater importance alongside geology and production costs. Gulf producers will remain indispensable because of their large, low-cost resources, but capital could gradually favor producers with more secure access to global markets, including Brazil, Guyana, Canada and the United States. The repricing is expected to be gradual and contested, potentially encouraging route diversification, enhanced oil recovery, deepwater development and technological innovation rather than a wholesale shift away from Gulf production.