Saeed Jafari

Iran appears capable of sustaining missile, drone and cruise-missile attacks for an extended period, although likely at lower intensity, while retaining the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran may be seeking to increase military, economic and political costs for the United States rather than achieve a direct military victory. Iran’s economy is under severe strain, with high inflation, job losses and projected contraction, but economic hardship alone may not force a policy change without major protests or internal elite divisions. Disagreements within Iran concern how long continued pressure will strengthen its negotiating position and when its costs will outweigh its benefits. A prolonged war could also damage Iran’s relations with Gulf states and make a durable diplomatic settlement harder to achieve, leaving its strategy without a clear path from wartime influence to political concessions.

Iran appears capable of continuing its war with the United States for some time through sustained, lower-intensity missile and drone attacks and disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Its military command structure and operational methods remain intact, while the United States is also incurring significant weapons, economic and domestic political costs. However, Iran’s economy is under severe strain, with high inflation, declining output and major job losses, and a prolonged conflict could worsen domestic unrest and damage Tehran’s improving relations with Gulf Arab states. Iranian officials disagree over how long the confrontation should continue, and the central uncertainty is whether Iran can convert the pressure it creates into a durable diplomatic agreement before the costs outweigh the benefits.