Сергей Горяшко

Russia’s Supreme Court rejected Yabloko’s appeal against its removal from the State Duma election, following a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina Party over alleged copyright violations and extremist messaging. Yabloko, historically a liberal opposition party that has sought to remain within Russia’s political system, became the only registered party openly opposing the war in Ukraine and experienced an unexpected surge of support among young voters. The article traces the party’s history, including its dominance by founder Grigory Yavlinsky, repeated failures to unite with other democratic forces, and the departure of figures such as Alexei Navalny and Ilya Yashin. Repression before the 2026 election weakened its candidate list, while imprisonment, foreign-agent designations and disqualification proceedings targeted prominent members. The court ruling threatens the party’s long-term survival because Russian parties must participate in federal or regional elections within a legally defined period, but it also demonstrates the potential strength of anti-war sentiment when given an electoral outlet.

Boris Nadezhdin’s experience illustrates how Russia’s political system has hardened since his unsuccessful 2024 presidential campaign. After attracting large anti-war crowds and being barred from the presidential ballot, he faced bankruptcy, the liquidation of the party that nominated him, restrictions on leaving Russia, an extremist-symbolism case and designation as a foreign agent. Experts say the Kremlin now seeks to eliminate anti-war voices and prevent uncontrolled political mobilization, amid declining support for the authorities, economic pressures, internet restrictions and public anxiety. Nadezhdin believes security officials have gained influence over more moderate Kremlin factions, but he continues to participate in Russian politics despite the risks.

Hackers claimed to have breached Ksenia Sobchak’s accounts and published alleged messages with officials and colleagues, which she denounced as fabricated. Russian state media figures, including Vladimir Solovyov, used the purported leaks to accuse her of disloyalty and suggest ties to Ukrainian officials, without evidence. The group Black8Mirror said it has a large archive of her data for sale, though authenticity remains unverified. The publications prompted reactions from independent outlets and from Sobchak, who described the situation as an attempt to discredit her and pressure her media holding. The leaks also included alleged exchanges involving Russian officials and internal disputes about editorial decisions, though none of the materials’ authenticity has been confirmed.

Surveys by major Russian polling organizations show a steady decline in Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings, which have fallen to their lowest levels since before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Experts attribute the drop to economic difficulties, rising prices, increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, and expanding internet restrictions. Although public anxiety is growing, political analysts believe the decline in ratings is unlikely to affect the upcoming State Duma elections due to extensive administrative control, reduced electoral oversight, and limitations on opposition candidates. Regional officials and experts argue that current conditions diminish prospects for organized protest, while internal elite disagreements may increase if conditions worsen. The article also includes analysis of Ukraine’s military strategy and its impact on public mood, emphasizing Kyiv’s intention to pressure Russia toward negotiations through long-range strikes.