Simon King

Rain and cooler temperatures are expected across much of the UK this week, but the rainfall will probably be insufficient to ease drought conditions affecting much of England and all of Wales. Forecasts indicate a higher-than-normal chance of a warmer and drier-than-average autumn, particularly in September, as high pressure, very dry soil and unusually warm seas could support another hot spell. However, it remains too early to determine whether a September heatwave will occur.

Friday is expected to be the final hot day of the UK heatwave for most people, with temperatures reaching 34C in parts of south-east England. Kew Gardens recorded 38.1C on Thursday, the hottest UK temperature of 2026 and the fifth highest on record. Cooler air will spread from northern and western areas on Friday, with temperatures falling below heatwave thresholds in most regions by Saturday and returning to seasonal averages by Sunday. Dry conditions are likely to persist across much of the UK, extending a prolonged period without notable rain in southern England, although rain-bearing weather fronts may reach Scotland and Northern Ireland early the following week.

A brief reduction in temperatures on Monday will be followed by the UK's fifth heatwave of the year, with south-east England potentially reaching 36C on Thursday. Persistent dry weather has left half of England and all of Wales in drought, reduced river and reservoir levels, and led to hosepipe bans affecting 23 million people. The National Drought Group is due to consider expanding drought declarations, while the National Farmers Union warns of possible food shortages.

A fifth widespread UK heatwave of 2026 is likely next week, with temperatures potentially exceeding 30C in south-east England and reaching 35C in central and south-east England. Heat health alerts cover most of England, highlighting risks to vulnerable people and pressure on health and social care services. The hot, dry summer has already broken sunshine and rainfall records, and the UK may surpass the 1995 record for days above 30C. Rain is expected in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and north Wales, but little significant rain is forecast for England and Wales, so drought conditions and hosepipe bans are unlikely to ease soon.

Extreme heat and humidity in Miami are expected to test England and Norway in their World Cup quarter-final, with wet bulb globe temperatures approaching levels considered unsafe by player unions. England’s acclimatisation in Florida and Kansas may give them an advantage, while Norway have played more matches in hot conditions but may be more fatigued. Experts warn of reduced airflow at Hard Rock Stadium and significant physical strain on players, prompting added cooling measures. Supporters also face risks, with numerous heat-related incidents reported at earlier matches. The game will be one of the tournament’s hottest, though not as extreme as historic World Cup fixtures in Florida.

Warnings indicate that a developing heatwave may bring temperatures above 30C across the UK for up to 10 days, with peaks near 34C in London and south‑east England. Amber and yellow heat‑health alerts have been issued due to expected impacts on health and care services, particularly for older people and those with medical conditions. Night temperatures are expected to be lower than during June’s extreme heatwave, though the duration of this hot spell may be longer, with forecasts suggesting a prolonged period of high temperatures across multiple regions.

A third UK heatwave begins with temperatures expected to peak around 34C mid‑week, lasting longer than the record-setting May and June heatwaves but remaining less extreme. Yellow heat‑health alerts cover the Midlands and southern England, with hotter, drier conditions developing across Europe as heat spreads from Portugal and Spain into France. Forecasts indicate temperatures above 30C somewhere in the UK for up to 10 consecutive days, though humidity will be lower than during June’s severe heatwave, reducing discomfort but increasing wildfire risk in parts of Europe.

Dangerous heat is forecast to intensify across central and eastern regions of the United States and Canada, with high humidity pushing perceived temperatures above 40C. Several World Cup last‑32 matches, particularly in Texas, Miami and Kansas City, may face uncomfortable or potentially unsafe conditions based on heat index thresholds used by Fifpro. Air‑conditioned stadiums will mitigate impacts inside, but outdoor conditions for travel and pre‑match periods remain challenging. Some matches also face risks from possible thunderstorms, which could delay games if they occur near stadiums.