Simon Watkins

The United States and Gulf states are exploring alternative energy routes to reduce Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis’ influence over the Bab el-Mandeb. A proposed $5 billion MERA Oil project would build a 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery, storage facilities and export infrastructure outside Hormuz, potentially in Oman or the UAE, with completion targeted for 2029. A broader India–Middle East–Europe corridor could shift trade toward routes through Oman, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Europe. A more ambitious proposal would connect Gulf oil via a pipeline across Saudi Arabia to Israel’s Trans-Israel pipeline and Mediterranean ports, bypassing both maritime chokepoints. Supporters, including Israeli and U.S. officials and Donald Trump’s team, see the infrastructure as a means to strengthen regional energy security, reinforce the Abraham Accords and expand U.S. influence, while the plan could also heighten tensions with Iran and its allies.

Russia’s war effort is portrayed as coming under growing strain from heavy military casualties, Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, and a declining ability to replace battlefield losses. The article says attacks have damaged nearly 43% of operating refining capacity, while the European Union and United States are preparing tougher measures targeting Russian oil exports, the shadow fleet, sanctions evasion, and major buyers including China and India. Economic pressures are also mounting, with stagnant growth, falling liquid sovereign reserves, depleted labor and industrial capacity, and a worsening domestic fuel crisis. The Kremlin may expand conscription after Russia’s September 2026 elections, risking greater anti-war sentiment and further political instability.